News

Warren Washington Honored by President Obama

UCAR photo by Carlye Calvin.

AMS Past President Warren Washington, a leader in the development of climate modeling, was one of the ten winners of the National Medal of Science announced Friday by President Obama at the White House. Since 1959 this has been the highest honor bestowed by the nation to its scientists, and very few in the atmospheric, oceanographic, and related sciences have been among the recipients–including Jacob Bjerknes, Roger Revelle, Susan Solomon, Helmut Landsberg, Henry Stommel, Charles Keeling, Verner Suomi, and Wallace Broecker.
In a statement issued by the National Center for Atmospheric Research, where he has worked since 1963, Washington says:

I am very pleased to receive this honor, which recognizes not only my work but that of my many colleagues whom I’ve had the pleasure of working with for more than 45 years. Akira Kasahara and Jerry Meehl, at NCAR, contributed significantly to the development of computer climate models, and support from NSF and the Department of Energy enabled us to make research advancements that I hope will contribute to mankind’s ability to sustain this planet.

President Obama remarked today:

The extraordinary accomplishments of these scientists, engineers, and inventors are a testament to American industry and ingenuity….Their achievements have redrawn the frontiers of human knowledge while enhancing American prosperity, and it is my tremendous pleasure to honor them for their important contributions.

Another AMS Past President, Bob Ryan, wrote on his blog,

Warren has been and continues as one of the world’s leading climate researchers of the 20th and now 21st centuries. His contributions to meteorology, science, public understanding, education and opportunity and service to his science are immense. Warren is one of those people whom we cross paths with personally, professionally or both, whom we know have enriched our lives. Someone you look forward to seeing again . . . and again.  That’s a Warren Washington.

Adds Roger Wakimoto, the director of NCAR:

His scientific leadership, innate diplomacy, as well as the mentorship to future generations of scientists have deeply and profoundly impacted our field.

Annual Meeting Program Now Online

With the conference program just published on the AMS web site this week, we’ve already learned some important facts about the fast-approaching 91st Annual Meeting in Seattle on 23-27 January 2011.

  • There will be 2,309 papers. Not surprisingly the biggest conference is “Climate Variability and Change,” with 266 papers.
  • Overall, oral presentations (1,319) outnumber poster presentations (990).
  • Authors hail from Spain, Ghana, France, Argentina, Germany, India, Austria, Australia, Turkey, Canada, Brazil, China, Portugal, Cuba, Sweden, Ukraine, Switzerland, Indonesia, Norway, Mexico, Israel, Poland, Korea, Italy, Finland, Russia, Hungary, Russia, and other countries, not to mention obscure locations like Boulder, Asheville, and Silver Spring.
  • The conference search engine shows that all is right with Seattle: “cloud” (553) is more than three times as likely as clear (174) and so is precipitation (595); northwest (87) more likely than southeast (60). Meteorology (592) still reigns over climatology (149), and weather (1734) is a higher frequency phenomenon than climate (1428) and models (also 1428) are more common now than observations (1001). (But, 483 people named Norman?…Could that be? Really?)
  • The Bernhard Haurwitz Lecture, “Scale Interactions and the Generation of Low-Frequency Variability in the Atmosphere,” will be given by Dennis L. Hartmann, University of Washington, Seattle.
  • James A. Smith, Princeton University, will present The Robert E. Horton Lecture, “What Robert Horton Did Not Know about Floods.”
  • At the Presidential Town Hall Meeting on Thursday, Ralph Cicerone, head of the National Academy of Sciences, will recommend what the scientific community in general and the AMS community in particular can do to increase credibility with the public in the wake of the “Climategate” e-mails.

The Presidential Town Hall is one of many sessions on the overarching theme of the meeting, “Communicating Weather and Climate.” Communications-related themed Joint Sessions related are also planned, allowing attendees from diverse specialties to address questions shared as scientists and professionals. A few of the many titles: “Communicating with Each Other: The Challenges and Rewards of Expanding Atmospheric Science’s Professional Partners,” “Communicating with Technology,” and “Risk Communication of Weather and Climate Information.”

Science for Everyone at the USA Expo

The first USA Science & Engineering Festival kicks off this weekend in Washington DC. Running for two weeks, the festival wraps up with a two-day expo on 23-24 October, with 1,500 booths planned in the downtown area, numerous local festival events, as well as satellite events across the country. From Hawaii to New York, scientists plan to visit local schools, hold special events, and open their doors to the general public.

The WeatherBug mascot will be at the DC Weather Coalition exhibit.

As part of expo, AMS will take part in the massive event on the National Mall, helping out with a double booth space run by the DC Weather Coalition, an educational partnership of government, scientific societies, enterprise, and institutions. The booth features an exhibit called “Become an Amateur Weather Forecaster,” in which visitors can experience firsthand what it takes to be a weather forecaster (Booth Numbers 1010, 1012, Section MA-C).  “Using this approach to examine the wonders and mystery of weather, water, and climate certainly adds intrigue and excitement to the many hands-on exhibits sponsored by DC WeatherFest Coalition partners,” comments Elizabeth Mills, a Coalition representative and associate director of the AMS Education Program.
A WeatherBug weather station is planned to demonstrate the numerous ways to access the daily weather. Meteorologists from local television stations WJLA and TBD, including Joe Witte, and members of the AMS Education Department will be available for questions and to assist with the WeatherBug display and twice-daily Weather Jeopardy games at the booths.
Mills notes that this variety allows visitors to experience related topics from different perspectives.  “Visitors in one area of our exhibits can be interviewed on camera, in another explore a weather station, and in others learn about the latest in weather research,” and in other exhibits, “they can see, first-hand, the instrumentation used in the ocean and understand the way climate is changing, or watch their kids being entertained by the WeatherBug mascot.”
To find exhibits that meet specific interests, the festival site is organized by age range, subject area, keyword, or organization name.  A tracking system for various age groups also makes it easy to find events with a common theme. The exhibits will be open from 10:00 a.m. to 5:30 p.m. on the weekend of the festival.

Moove Over, Dr. Fujita!

Thanks to Paul Douglas and D.J. Kayser for a report on Josh Wurman’s presentation at St. Cloud State University about the Doppler on Wheels project (based at the Center for Severe Storm Research in Boulder, Colorado).

Dr. Wurman explained that since the DOW project started about 15 years ago, the vehicles have seen between 160-170 tornadoes, about 15-20 of them with the VORTEX 2 project which was aimed at better understanding tornado formation and to hopefully push the lead time out for tornadic storms. Part of Dr. Wurman’s research is also to study the lower level winds of a tornado in hopes to come up with an even better Fujita Scale (yes, different from the current Enhanced Fujita Scale) and hopefully be able to better warn areas that would be impacted by tornadoes, especially since there is currently little ability to forecast the intensity, duration, and size of tornadoes, unlike we can with hurricanes.

Even with that kind of experience it doesn’t look like Wurman’s udder tornado scale will be putting Fujita’s version to pasture any time soon.

NWS sez 'Hi' to Fort Worth on Facebook

The National Weather Service is on Facebook (so is AMS, actually). But you knew that already. What’s new is that now the NWS is trying out Facebook as a local-level communications tool. The Fort Worth, Texas, office has a new page to raise weather awareness locally. If weather turns ugly, it might become an important additional channel between meteorologists and the public.
Writes one commenter, “About time you guys got on here.” But actually, social media and government weather services have had a somewhat tempestuous relationship so far, even with the undeniable popularity of the national NWS fan page.
At least one NWS employee already had tested the waters on his own: in an April 30 severe weather outbreak one local forecaster in Arkansas was posting weather updates on a private Twitter account, minutes before the same information made it to TV screens. In response the Weather Service reiterated its policy against employees using unofficial communication channels for official business, effectively prohibiting social media for local weather communications.
More recently, the head of forecasting at Taiwan’s Central Weather Bureau, Ming-Dean Chen, used his personal Facebook page to distribute typhoon information hours in advance of the official notices from his own office. He expounded on possibilities that weren’t discussed in the official forecasts. Chen ended up apologizing to superiors, but pointed out that he was merely repeating information that had already been posted on the Japan Meteorological Agency web site anyway.
Renegade incidents seem less likely now that NWS is cautiously dipping an official toe in Facebook waters for local purposes. They could start a tidal wave, however, if they don’t proceed judiciously. Digital Meteorologist blog points out that a strong social media presence by local NWS offices might rapidly erode the long-held niche broadcast meteorologists have enjoyed by combining local weather knowledge with direct access to the public.

Sure, the US government is slow, but what happens when it finally catches up?  #NWS could be a pretty powerful hashtag….Poke the bear if you want.  Just make sure you are ready to run when he wakes up.

Overheating in Cars

The September Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society features an article with a new table showing how fast the inside of a parked car can heat up if left with the windows closed. The data comes none too soon.
A small Kansas-based nonprofit, Kids and Cars, says that already this year, 48 children have died of hyperthermia in cars in the United States. This is a new record in the 13 years statistics have been available. An average of 37 children in the United States die each year from hyperthermia in cars.
It’s tempting to blame the spike in deaths (there were 33 last year) to the record heat in various parts of the country, but Jan Null, a CCM with Golden Gate Weather Services, cautions that hyperthermia in vehicles is a danger with or without record heat waves:

I think from the small 13-year sample that we have that probably from a statistical basis, this is within the range of what you would expect. It’s impossible, I think, to associate it with the weather totally. Is weather a factor? It’s always a factor.
According to the BAMS article, the interior air temperature of the vehicle can rise about 4°C in 5 minutes, about 7°C in 10 minutes, and 16°C in 30 minutes, and 26°C in an hour. Thus after an hour in direct sunlight, the air temperature in the vehicle can reach 57°C (135°F). Authors Andrew Grundstein, John Dowd, and Vernon Meentemeyer hope their research helps educate people about the dangers of hyperthermia to children who sometimes are inadvertently left unattended in cars.
Janette Fennell, founder and president of Kids and Cars, notes that these tragedies are due to ordinary memory error, not bad parenting, and hopes car makers will install warning systems that will alert parents who might have left their kids in cars, just as technology has made it possible already to warn of keys left in the ignition, open trunks, and low batteries. She says people can help themselves by routinely placing their briefcases, cell phones, or other needed items the back seat, near their children, so that they’ll have to look back before leaving the car.

The Toughest Part of Forecasting

The New Zealand MetService’s chief forecaster Peter Kreft writes:

Getting the message out about severe weather, particularly when it involves rapid changes, requires excellent communication with the New Zealand public and many organisations managing weather-related risks. The message needs to be relevant and clear – not always an easy task, given that users of weather information have such diverse needs….In some ways, the challenge of getting the communication right is even more difficult than getting the meteorology right.

After recent events in New Zealand, Kreft should know. For days, the MetService had been tracking developing conditions for severe weather for parts of New Zealand. Then, on Wednesday, September 15, forecasters actually issued an advisory for gale force winds and “bitterly cold” weather several days ahead.
That’s when the other part of forecasting–the tough part- started to go awry. The media made references to a “massive” storm the size of Australia about to go medieval on New Zealand. References to civil defense authorities making preparations for the worst also hyped up the alarm.

[S]hortly after the MetService press release on Wednesday, this communication process was thrown off kilter by a media article about “the largest storm on the planet”. The article was based in part on the MetService press release but included information from other sources as well as a measure of journalistic licence.

Not surprisingly, weather discussion boards, blogs, and more media went haywire. Kreft says the misconstrued warnings went “viral”:

Within a matter of hours, MetService was fielding calls from people concerned about the “massive storm heading for New Zealand” and asking for clarification on various statements that MetService had apparently made. It was clear early on that people were confused about the source of the information they were receiving, and had been misled into thinking that the whole country was in for serious weather.

Not only worried citizens and nervous farmers but even disaster-preparedness authorities got caught in the storm of “mediarology.”

Unfortunately, MetService’s ability to get weather information to those who really needed to know was significantly hampered by media articles over-stating the area affected by the storm.

While severe conditions indeed occurred, the weather, as meteorologists had expected, was not bad everywhere in New Zealand

…leaving many people wondering what all the fuss was about. The danger this raises is that some of those may simply ignore the next Severe Weather Warning they receive.

All in all, it was a good reminder for why the weather enterprise continually needs to foster the partnership between scientists and the media, and ultimately the communication between forecasters and the public.

Recreational Tornado Chasing: the Psychology of Risk

Who seeks the thrill of nature at its most beastly? Researchers at the University of Missouri’s School of Natural Resources surveyed people who sign up for tornado chasing with five different tour companies in Tornado Alley and found that:

  • 62 percent are male
  • 63 percent were single.
  • The mean age was almost 42.
  • More than 25 percent had an advance degree.
  • 33 percent earn more than $100,000 per year
  • More than half are visiting from outside the United States: one-third from Europe, 13 percent from Canada (although one company cooperating in the study chased in Canada), and 11 percent from Australia.

We know that chasing is a hobby that is hard to shake. Not all these tourists are newbies: 53 percent had previous chasing experience and fewer than half of those had done so with a tour company, yet over 30 percent of those with chasing experience had seen a tornado before. 68 percent said they would be willing to spend money on another chase tour.
In a Master’s thesis based on the study, Shuangyu Xu builds psychological profiles of people based on “sensation-seeking” scales of behavior that might identify motivations for chasing tornadoes (asking questions about, for example, predilections for strange foods, comfort with people who are different, and predilection for restlessness). Previous studies had used similar psychological tools to investigate mountaineering, sky diving, white water rafting, and other high risk recreation. The storm chasing tourists scored very moderately on these tests for sensation-seeking behavior.

[H]ang-glider pilots (Wagner & Houlihan, 1994), mountain climbers (Cronin, 1991), skiers, rock climbers, white water kayakers, and stunt flyers (Slanger & Rudestam, 1997) displayed high levels of sensation seeking across all dimensions. These results may suggest that recreational storm chasers are different from other risk recreation activity participants, especially because their personalities seem to be more drawn to new experiences rather than the risks involved.

The tourists professed to sign up to be near nature, to witness natural power and beauty, and to learn about tornadoes. They were not generally doing it to impress people or do something extraordinary, and only moderately interested in the thrill, danger, or risks.
About half of the tourists were able to see a funnel cloud on their trip (and almost 35 percent saw a tornado on the ground). Interestingly, though, while nine companies originally agreed to distribute surveys to customers, four ultimately did not, citing inadequate weather and challenging economic conditions. Maybe the real risk takers here are not the tourists but the tour operators, who put their financial well-being at the mercy of both the business climate and the weather.

Not Seasick…Science Smitten

What if you are asked to be part of a scientific expedition aboard a non-luxurious research vessel, surrounded by complete strangers, forced to face rough seas – and sea sickness, 16 hours’ work shifts, no weekends or recreational activities, no days off, lots of hours under the sun working with scientific equipment, poor internet connectivity and no interaction whatsoever with the outer world? While many people would say: “no thank you”, I was euphoric when I received an email which first line read: “Congratulations, you have been selected as a participant of the Sixth Aerosols and Oceans Science Expedition”.

So begins Mayra Oyola’s engaging story of work aboard the NOAA research vessel Ronald H. Brown for the AEROSE campaign

Beside The Ronald H. Brown.

under the auspices of Howard University, NOAA, and other institutions. It was apparently a love affair not just with the science and the sea, but with a lidar, too:

[E]very scientist is …assigned at least one particular instrument and is expected to become the one and only expert on that matter.  In a sense, every scientist establishes a sort of “bond” with his/her assigned instrument that is very similar romantic affair. You can grow such a strong love and hate relationship with it. There are days when you two can get along just fine. But other days you have to fight against temptations (like throwing it overboard or smashing it with a sledge hammer). There are days when your appointed instrument gets seduced by Murphy (in other words, goes haywire) and you have to make him/her understand that s/he is in a monogamous relationship with you.  As some partners, these instruments can be gold diggers (they cost hundreds/thousands of dollars) and are high maintenance as well.

And, this enticing view of the ocean:

When people say I must be crazy to have loved so much sailing on this expedition, I just ask them a couple of questions: Have you seen bioluminescence or done some fishing in the middle of the Atlantic basin? Or have you ever had the chance to catch a movie under the stars in the middle of the Sea? Well, I had.  There are some great perks about sailing on the Brown. There is nothing as beautiful as lying on deck at night for the most spectacular stargazing sessions you will experience in this world.  There are unusual things that you will never see in your everyday life: like watching a double rainbow or the most impressive towering cumulonimbus cloud EVER at the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITZC). I also loved watching different marine life forms like the flying fishes, dolphins and squids (oh yeah, we saw squids!). Oh and the sunsets… sunsets that will take your breath away!….But the highest reward is this:  we get to do REAL science to solve REAL problems, such as improving the quality of satellite operations,   understanding the effects of aerosols in hurricane formation and intensification and learning how tropospheric ozone can be linked to global warming, among many other things. There is nothing that can top that!

Check out the full story, and picture gallery, here, and kudos to Oyola for such drawing a compelling portrait of science at sea. We talk about the need to communicate science, and we’ll talk more about it as the Annual Meeting approaches, but she’s set a strong example already.

NOAA Names Regional Climate Services Directors

Commerce Secretary Gary Locke announced the selection of six new NOAA regional climate services directors. According to NOAA Administrator Jane Lubchenco:

NOAA’s new regional directors are liaisons to state and regional users and providers of climate science and information; they will also bring information from the regions back into NOAA. They will work with our many partners to identify new and emerging regional climate issues and help NOAA develop products or services to address issues like local climate forecasts, drought plans or flood risk mapping.

The new directors will be stationed at the respective National Weather Service regional headquarters work for the National Climatic Data Center. They are:
Eastern Region: Ellen Mecray
For the last four years, Mecray led strategic planning for NOAA’s Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research  and facilitated  inter-and intra-agency dialog and collaboration on climate science in New England. She is the lead for the North Atlantic Regional Collaboration Team’s Climate sub-team which consists of 20 people representing all of NOAA’s line offices and key regional partners. Prior to joining NOAA, Mecray was an

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