by Steve Ackerman and Rajul Pandya, Co-Chairs, 91st AMS Annual Meeting
Happy New Year! Following the communication theme of the 2011 AMS Annual Meeting in Seattle Washington, we thought it appropriate to remind you of some activities that will occur during our annual meeting. There will be some new events this year to accompany the exciting events we have come to appreciate during this meeting – such as Weatherfest and the awards dinner.
This meeting will be the “pilot” effort of the Beacons program. AMS Beacons are folks that will be stationed throughout the conference area to greet and assist you as you participate in this meeting. While there is a special opportunity to meet Beacons at the New Attendee Briefing on Sunday, they will be available throughout the week as well.
For the first time, our annual meeting includes a visual art exhibition hosted by the conference center. The exhibit, Forecast: Communicating Weather and Climate, remains in the conference center through April and is open to the public. The purpose of the exhibit is to engage scientists, artists, and others in cross-disciplinary dialogue on ways to communicate weather and climate issues to the general public. So, roam the halls of the conference center to view and discuss the artworks.
There will be a couple of student activities as well. With help from our vendors, students will make and share measurements of our meeting environment in an activity called, appropriately, “Measuring the Environment”. The Student conference on Saturday will include a game quest, including puzzles to solve and things to find, and the chance to win fantastic prizes.
Finally, the Sunday evening before the conference features two grassroots events: “The Color of Weather”, a gathering celebrating the increasing ethnic and racial diversity of our society, and the “Coriolis” reception for Gay, Lesbian, Bisexual, Transgender and Friends. Both events take place 7:00–9:00 p.m. at the Sheraton Seattle Hotel (1400 Sixth Avenue) “The Color of Weather” in the Willow Room and “Coriolis” in Diamond Rooms A and B.
Look for further updates on posts on this blog, AMS Facebook and Twitter (#91stAMS) feeds.
Snow for Alabama: Can the Models Do the Talking?
Alabama hasn’t had a lot of luck with White Christmases. In Birmingham, for instance, it’s only dusted snow once, and that wasn’t an actual measurable accumulation.
It’s no wonder then that the prospect of snow tomorrow has sent chills of excitement down the spines of Alabamans who have had their eyes glued to the computer models this week.
On his AlabamaWx blog, ABC 33/40 broadcast meteorologist James Spann and Tim Coleman have been trying to temper excessive expectations for days now, even while trying to patiently explain the promising but multifarious model output. On Wednesday, for instance:
There is very little skill in forecasting winter storm events in Alabama until you get with about 48 hours of the event. Nobody knows the exact snow placement and amount this early. Even the know-it-alls don’t know, even though they will never let you bebutlieve it (those of us that have been doing this a long time professionally have had enough doses of humility over the years to be firmly out of the know-it-all camp). We can begin talking accumulation placement tomorrow when that 48 hour window opens up.
and:
The NAM and the GFS, the two primary American models, show very limited moisture, and not much more than a dusting of snow for the I-20 corridor. The deepest moisture will be over the southern half of the state, where initially the precipitation will fall in the form of rain.
The ECMWF and the GEM, the European and Canadian models, are a little more bullish on moisture for North Alabama, but it is still limited. Both of these models suggest enough snow to get 1/2 to 1 inch on the ground. Which, if happens, would be historic for Birmingham. Up north, everybody would completely laugh at the fuss this is creating.
All this talk about what the computers say apparently gets a violently different reaction from folks depending on the stakes. Therein lies a lesson in communicating with science as we approach a meeting devoted to the topic. Wrote one commenter yesterday on AlabamaWx:
Yeah I’m.pretty upset that one.minute the models are right on for a winter storm then the next it flakes out. It literally crushes a lot of peoples wants and all but atleast we did have a chance a day ago! Now its all a good memory.
Just the day before, Spann wrote:
I am amazed at the angry tone of e-mails this evening… some are simply livid that I am not predicting a big Christmas day snow storm that would be historic for Alabama. I will probably never understand why winter weather brings out such passion and emotion. Seems to be more intense every year. Never was like this in the “old days”… one guy called me an “idiot of historic proportion” because “his forecast” was for 6 inches of snow for Birmingham. Wow.
Apparently, despite the cool dispassion of mathematics and computers, it is actually easier for people to rant at computers churning out uncertainty than
Good Things in Small Packages
Don’t let the size of those boxes under the Christmas tree fool you. Good things sometimes come in little packages, and here’s a video from the University of Michigan to prove it.
U of M students designed and built a satellite called RAX, or Radio Aurora Explorer, to fit into the standardized 10 cm x 10 cm x 10 cm frames of the CubeSat initiative, which puts low-cost instruments into orbit. Funded by NSF, RAX is a joint venture between the university and SRI International.
Basically the idea is to study plasma instabilities in the ionosphere. These clouds of magnetic disturbance can disrupt communications between Earth and spacecraft. RAX receives and processes signals from incoherent radar based in Alaska that are scattered by these plasma clouds. This makes RAX the NSF’s first space weather satellite. Launched one month ago today, the mission has already dealt with low-power problems with the batteries, but has also proved successful in receiving signals from the radar in Alaska.
The mission is described in this video made before the launch:
You can keep track of RAX on the mission blog, and hear Hasan Bahcivan of SRI present the latest on the mission at the AMS Annual Meeting in Seattle (Tuesday 25 January, 4:45 pm, 4C-3). Also, Richard Behnke of NSF will discuss cubesat and other aspects of the NSF space weather plans (Monday 24 January, 11:45 am, 4C-3).
Shovels, Cleats, and Fabrics: Just Another Snow Story
The Minnesota Vikings are hosting football outdoors for the first time in 29 years in their hometown, thanks to the collapse last week of the fabric roof of their home, the Metrodome. Last Sunday the football team decamped to a dome in Detroit, but tonight they’re expecting six inches of snow in Minneapolis to greet the Chicago Bears (themselves no strangers to snow and cold, of course).
The weather story this time is not just the falling snow, but the valiant efforts of workers and volunteers who have prepared the University of Minnesota’s FieldTurf synthetic field for this Monday night game. Not only does the snow need to be cleared, but the frozen field needs to be warmed sufficiently to prevent a slew of injuries. One player called the surface “hard as concrete.” Unlike NFL stadiums, which deal with a season that stretches into December, the university’s field is normally shut down by now, and does not have heating coils underneath to blunt the effects of freezing air temperatures. In addition the stadium as a whole was “winterized,” or put in cold storage with pipes dissembled to withstand freezing, so reawakening the facility for the game was quite a process.
The conditions of the game make one appreciate the need for a dome for winter sports in Minnesota, but last week’s spectacular roof collapse raises the architectural question: how to design a large roof for Minnesota’s famously varied climate.
The keepers of the Metrodome have good reason to believe that, an occasional roof collapse aside, fabric is still the right answer. The extremes of temperature in Minneapolis stretch and contract any covering, so in fact a flexible roof is ideal. And the maintenance of a fixed structure also means significant snow removal costs which may outweigh the occasional rip and fix for a fabric roof. (Thanks to the forecasts for heavy snow, workers were on the Metrodome roof trying to clear and melt snow last Friday before retreating in a lost cause .) The main downside of fabrics these days is the energy cost of the air pressure between the two sheets of the dome to keep the roof inflated.
Here’s a radio press conference discussing the climatic considerations of the stadium after a previous collapse of the Metrodome roof, also due to snowfall, back in 1982.
It takes a particular kind of storm to damage the roof. The design calls for warm air forced between the outer and inner layers to help melt the snow, but particularly cold storms can overcome that defense, especially if coupled with sufficient water content for a heavy accumulation and winds to drift the snow and cause particularly devastating loads in particular spots on the dome. Apparently even in Minnesota this doesn’t happen often enough to make other roof solutions less expensive or more convenient.
Say It Ain't Snow, Santa
Is it possible that dreaming of a white Christmas can backfire? Parts of the United Kingdom may find out over the next week if bitter cold temperatures and heavy snowfall continues. The conditions–which also have included gale-force winds at times–are getting so severe that officials are warning that many packages may not be delivered in time for them to be opened on Christmas morning, creating the possibility that Santa may not be arriving (on time) this year. Heavy snow predicted for the weekend has already started in many locations, and severe weather warnings have been given for a number of areas. (The UK Met Office has been tracking the snowfall on an interactive map on their website.)
Temperatures consistently below 0°C have been chilling the region for weeks, with The Weather Outlook forecaster Brian Gaze calling the cold spell “a once-in-a-lifetime event.” Snow and ice on roads, runways, and rails have created travel headaches, with the next week likely to be even worse. But no one’s travel is as important as St. Nick’s, and at this point the forecasts are not favorable.
“This year in Scotland and the northeast [England] it is likely that Father Christmas won’t be coming,” said Simon Veale, director of the delivery company Global Freight Solutions, in a statement certain to shock children throughout the United Kingdom.
The current scene is evoking comparisons to perhaps the U.K.’s most famous holiday weather event, the 1927 Christmas Blizzard that left 20-foot snowdrifts in some locations.
Video Whirls Thru Hyperactive Hurricane Season
NOAA recently posted its annual video compilation of the entire 2010 Atlantic hurricane season, and it’s impressive. Crammed into just under 5 fast-paced minutes, you’ll see 6 months of tropical and mid-latitude weather seamlessly wax, wane, dip, and swirl across your computer screen. It stars this year’s 19 named storms, from Alex to Tomas, and even a few Eastern Pacific whirls. Can you spot them all? (Occasional names following the organized cloud clusters will help you.)
NOAA’s Environmental Visualization Lab produced the video. You can view the larger version on YouTube (where the tiny storm names are easier to see).
An historical overview of the 2010 season is available from NOAA here.
For more detail, the National Hurricane Center has archived the season’s tropical cyclone advisories, and will eventually post summary reports of all of the year’s named hurricanes and tropical storms. New this year, you can view the individual storm tracks in Google Earth; from the summary reports page, click on the KMZ link after each storm name to launch Google Earth, and then interact by clicking a storm position to get specific advisory information. (What’s that you say? You don’t have Google Earth?? Well, just download it!)
A New Way to Brighten AMS Meetings
Upon former Executive Director Ken Spengler’s death this summer, Andy White commented in The Front Page, “Ken made me feel like the most important member of the Society. I soon noticed he was that way with everyone.” Added John Lanicci, “The AMS is a lot like a close-knit family, and a much of that credit goes to Ken Spengler for his leadership, and always making you feel welcome, whether you were a newcomer like I was, or a member for 20 or 30 years.”
The AMS Beacons Program, a new initiative of the Membership Committee, is designed to carry on this special legacy of Dr. Spengler’s, fostering the AMS as an open, inclusive, and welcoming organization. The Beacons program is an ambassador program with a “member-staffed goodwill team” reflecting AMS’ initiatives to serve its existing, returning, and potentially new members. AMS Beacons will serve the AMS Executive Director and assist with Society and membership-related functions as deemed necessary or appropriate at AMS annual, specialty, and local chapter meetings and other functions.
The word “beacon” is defined as “a source of light or other signal for guidance; a source of light or inspiration.” This is what the Beacons aim to be for those who participate in the Society’s activities.
The 91st AMS Annual Meeting in Seattle, Washington, will be the “pilot” effort of the Beacons program. Beacons will be a friendly face, providing assistance and help to attendees–from the first time attendee who needs directions, to a regular attendee who might need some timely and thoughtful advice.
Beacons will have a significant presence at the New Attendee Briefing on Sunday, will be stationed at key locations (e.g., registration area, entryways, meetings with large gatherings, etc.), and informally greet and assist as they move throughout the venue during the week. As a volunteer, complementary resource to the AMS staff, Beacons will be trained on what questions and information should be referred to AMS staff members.
Watch for signs at the meeting, and posts on this blog, AMS Facebook and Twitter (#91stAMS) feeds for more about the role of Beacons.
Competing for Climate's Sake
Secretary of Energy Steven Chu says that Americans are having a new “Sputnik” moment. Now that China is moving full speed ahead to develop clean energy and mass transit, he predicts Americans will wake up to an economic and public relations challenge akin to the one that launched the space race with the Soviet Union more than 50 years ago.
You can watch the full speech given Monday at the National Press Club in Washington, D.C. As an Energy and Climate policy statement, Chu’s speech (see also the pdf or ppt versions at DOE) calls for vastly expanded federal funding to bolster American capabilities in engineering and science to seize the economic edge that clean energy will presumably provide in the coming decades.
Meanwhile, at the White House, as part of this energy policy push on Monday, the President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology released its “Report to the President on Accelerating the Pace of Change in Energy Technologies Through an Integrated Federal Energy Policy.” In addition to economic and security rationales, the report calls for coordinated Federal energy policy in part to “mitigate the risk of climate change.” For this purpose,
the invention, translation, adoption, and diffusion of clean energy technologies need to occur within one to two decades, not the 50 years characteristic of major energy systems.
The report is sparse on details that relate directly to meteorological, oceanographic, and hydrologic aspects of renewables that currently occupy so many in the AMS community. In fact, even the frosted cupcakes served to speakers at the Press Club for Chu’s announcement were more weather-centric: there were atoms (go nuclear), suns (go solar) and….lightning (go thunderstorm power??).
Anyway, the larger political context is clear. The science community is swept along by geopolitics. It may take considerations of economic competitiveness and national security to get environmental well-being and risks onto a national, long-term agenda.
Why We Need Public Education in Earth Science
by William Hooke, AMS Policy Program Director.
From the AMS project, Living on the Real World
Early in the Bush administration, sometime during the winter of 2001-2002, I got to sit in on a remarkable conversation. Three of us were meeting with the president’s new science advisor, John H. “Jack” Marburger, III, in his office. He was just getting his feet on the ground, and reaching out to different sectors of the science community. We were there to speak a bit to the contributions atmospheric science had made to the country, and how these contributions would not have been possible without steady government support, sustained for several decades. We weren’t there to ask for something; we were there to express thanks for past support, from both Republican and Democratic administrations.
At one point Jack invited us to each say something about the work of our respective organizations. I’d been at the American Meteorological Society only a year or so, and felt I’d rather say something about the work of our Education Program rather than my own policy interests. So I described how Ira Geer and his staff had constructed a wonderful Ponzi or pyramid scheme. Many science education programs focused on getting practicing scientists in the classroom; the idea has been that somehow these scientists could convey the excitement of the research bench. Some university faculty have proved better at this than others, but the results have been checkered at best. Ira and the AMS came at this from the opposite direction: public school teachers knew how to relate to the school kids; so why not give these teachers the resources they’d need to teach Earth science content? The AMS focused on reaching into the classrooms of education departments at universities and community colleges. They also chose to work closely, over a period of years, with a small cohort of public school teachers, who in turn would return home each year, and establish and maintain further cohorts (of cohorts) in their home states. In this way, Ira, his successor Jim Brey, and their staff of ten or so have reached 100,000 teachers and ten million students. Good numbers!
Marburger thought so too. He had been polite all along, but now grew animated, leaned forward. “American kids care about three kinds of science,” he said, “space, dinosaurs, and the weather.” He then recounted a story from his Brookhaven National Laboratory days. “We had an open house every year,” he said.
“One year, looking for ways to boost public attendance, we realized we had a National Weather Service Forecast Office on our [extensive] Brookhaven premises. We added them to our open house. The good news was that attendance shot way up! The bad news was everyone flocked to the Doppler radar. No one wanted to see our particle accelerators.”
What does this say? Public education in the Earth sciences provides the United States a badly-needed twofer. First, if educational statistics are leading indicators of the future place of the United States in the world, then our slippage relative to other countries in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) education augurs poorly. More emphasis on Earth science education offers a way out of our dilemma. As kids are drawn into Earth science, they quickly realize they need to learn a little physics, a little chemistry, a little biology – and top it all off with some mathematics. That childhood fascination with snowflakes and winter storms; thunder and lightning, downpours, and rainbows; with hurricanes and tornados? Earth sciences tap into this. They are a portal, a doorway, inviting kids into the world of science and technology more broadly.
Second, these school kids, when they reach adulthood, are going to be consulted frequently, through polling, through the voting booth, through their daily viewing choices on television or websites about their environmental preferences. What do they want their elected officials and leaders to decide and do relative to resource use, environmental protection, land use, building codes, preservation of habitat and biodiversity? High school may be the last chance to many to obtain the educational grounding they’ll need to make wise choices.
Sadly, most state educational standards struggle to include Earth sciences in any robust way. The tendency is for Earth sciences to be crowded out by physics, chemistry, biology, and mathematics. Understandable! These subjects are basic – they offer great employment opportunities going forward, and many of the same political challenges. But ideally, educators would use Earth sciences curricula as bookends in the secondary schools. The Earth sciences should be introduced at some point in middle school, to motivate students to learn the science and mathematics that are coming through the rest of the high school years. But then it should be re-offered, at a greater level of complexity and thoroughness in the senior year, when students can see how the physics, chemistry, and biology that they’ve been learning come together in order to explain how the atmosphere, oceans, and land surface work.
Easier said than done? Absolutely. But worth it if we hope to sustain our quality of life on the real world.
It’s in the Bag
Grocery shoppers usually are prepared to answer just one question at the check out line: “paper or plastic?” In Iowa, though, if they choose paper, they can also answer questions like, “What do you do if you see a tornado?” because they’re likely looking right at the answer….on the sides of the bags filled with their purchases.
The severe weather tips printed on grocery bags are the work of the AMS Iowa State University chapter. It is one of the effective initiatives that recently earned them the AMS Student Chapter of the Year–they’ll be honored along with other 2011 AMS award winners at the upcoming AMS Annual Meeting in Seattle.
The students first provided tips advising what to do in the event of lightning, tornadoes, or flooding, in the Ames and Ankeny HyVee stores in April of last year. Chapter members came up with the idea two years ago as an easy way to increase community weather awareness. They teamed up with the Central Iowa Chapter of the NWA to create the bags and expanded the distribution through much of central Iowa, including the Des Moines metropolitan area.
The chapter plans to expand further this year, aiming to distribute these safety tips to all 220 plus HyVee stores throughout the Midwest, including in Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, South Dakota, and Wisconsin.