If you’ve been following Bill Hooke’s blog, Living on the Real World, you know the AMS Policy Program director has been exploring the analogies been contemporary life and various types of games. Yesterday’s post likened life to a Massively Multiple On-line Role-Playing Game:
On the real world as in the videogame, as time passes, and as gamers surmount one set of challenges after another, the pace quickens and the level of difficulty jumps. On the real world, as we’ve gone from say 1 billion people to 7 billion, each one of which on average may be consuming resources at ten times of her ancestor a century earlier, and as social change had accelerated, the level of difficulty has hit unprecedented heights.
Saturday at the AMS Student Conference, Hooke challenged attendees to become the “Greatest Generation,” by becoming engaged in a modern world that is increasingly insulated and virtual and to equip themselves to thrive on a real planet with real, escalating problems.
In both gaming and life, “it’s easier to lose than to win,” Hooke said, but in life there are “no do-overs, no pause button.” So keep in mind that the videos below may be mere electronic do-overs, with pause buttons, of the complete luncheon talk, but this indeed happened in the real world today in Seattle, before 400 people, with some real answers and real hope for a future informed by science and good policy.
Prepared for normal weather, precipitating contrary weather: all in a week's work for unconventional AMS meeting attendees.
Like snowflakes blowing in the winds of a blizzard, an ugly rumor had swirled through AMS Annual Meetings past. People…meteorologists, no less (you know who you are!), began saying that the convergence of so many meteorologists each year led to “bad” and sometimes “dangerous” weather in the host city.
The evidence was accumulating: flooding rain, mudslides, and severe storms in 2005 in perpetually sunny San Diego; crippling ice storms in 1978 and 2007 during the only two AMS visits to San Antonio; tornadoes in 1993 near Anaheim, California, while AMS huddled at Disneyland; and Mardi Gras parade in blasting winds and shivering chill during the 2006 Annual in New Orleans. We do not care to cite more.
On Saturday, however, with sunshine sneaking into the late January Seattle forecast, it seemed to be the right time to dispel this myth. Following the unremarkable weather a year ago in Atlanta, this week’s forecast is poised to further unstack the evidence against our maligned meteorological influences. The familiar light rain set to kick off the new week is supposed to gradually end and, as clouds thin and break up, full-fledged sunshine is expected beginning Tuesday and lasting the rest of the week. High temperatures are forecast to be near 60 degrees in the middle of the week, more than a dozen degrees above average.
Wow! Unusual, isn’t it? How about that—we don’t bring bad weather with us every year after all. Cliff Mass of the University of Washington seems emboldened enough to explain on his blog that this “dirty ridge” over the region is
This benign weather report is clearly due to the presence of thousands of meteorologists in town for the annual meeting of the American Meteorological Society. The weather gods know not to cross us.
We’re not as confident as all that…not yet. Maybe the real stigma we can’t shake is the onset of unconventional weather–both good and not so good.
So, to all those mayors and city commissioners out there scheduled to host AMS Annual Meetings in the years to come, there’s no use in fretting. Maybe…just maybe…that wild winter weather you wish would abate will do so when the AMS comes to your town.
Students participating in the 2011 Weather Quest: Use your smart phone to read the qr code on the right to get Clue #5:
If you have a smart phone, but not a qr code reader, you can download one from http://www.mobile-barcodes.com/qr-code-software/ .
If you don’t have a smart phone, you can go to this URL to access the clue: http://library.ssec.wisc.edu/tempfiles/clue5.htm
Good luck! The Weather Quest Team
by Steve Ackerman, Annual Meeting Co-Chair
Raj concluded a posting about communications themes at the Annual Meeting by saying, “Have fun.” That ought to be easy. It is always a joy to meet old friends at these meetings, and make new ones. In addition to the Wednesday banquet, the lunches, the art show, and WeatherFest, there is lots of fun in store at various sessions throughout the meeting. Everyone has their favorite lightning story, and there are a several papers throughout the conference on lightning; including recent modeling advance, future satellite observations, lightning climatologies and communicating safety procedures to the public. I’m looking forward to the session on Eyjafjallajökull Volcanic Eruption of 2010, to hear about what was learned about the eruption and its impact. There are several papers that deal with artificial intelligence – which makes me wonder how listening is incorporated into A.I. There are many interesting papers presented throughout the meeting and the AMS calendar scheduler is a good way to keep track of papers you want to hear. There is a lot of ‘pink’ in my schedule (for those who haven’t used it, a pink cell denotes a conflict between one or more events.) I also enjoy the poster sessions — that is a good time to have some dialogue about research that interests me.
Oh, and once we all learn how to communicate better, take some time to comment on the AMS draft statement on “communicating science.”
Al Blackadar, AMS Honorary Member and Past President and veteran of countless AMS meetings, shared this story to us this week. It proves the power of serendipity as well as the value of getting to know people in your field–precisely the point of Annual Meeting week and in particular events like the new Reception for Young Professionals this coming Sunday:
I happened to be in Boston one morning in 1948 or thereabout with a late-afternoon train reservation to return to New York. I was then an instructor at NYU working for a degree and hoping to find a start on my career. On an idle thought I wandered over to 45 Beacon Street to see the ruins that had just been acquired for the future AMS headquarters and unexpectedly met Ken Spengler and Tom Malone, then President of the AMS. I accepted an invitation for a tour and lunch, neither of which had been previously scheduled. Next morning, back at home in New Jersey I was awakened by a surprise phone call from Tom Malone asking me if I would accept an appointment as Editor of the AMS Monographs!
I have often mentioned this experience to my students. There are unlimited ways to make yourself known – more than you will ever expect or ever plan. Make it a habit and I can guarantee success.
by Raj Pandya, Annual Meeting Co-Chair
The theme of this year’s annual meeting is communication, and I think one of the hardest parts of communication is listening. I find it embarrassingly easy to slip into broadcast mode, and imagine that simply because I want to say it, others will be interested. My 8-year old daughter can be brutal about this: “Daddy, this is boring, can we talk about horses, please.” (I will say, though, I can sneak in a little thunderstorm talk if we frame it around storms’ impact on horse happiness).
So, I am especially looking forward to this annual meeting as a chance to listen, especially to communities we haven’t interacted with before or in places we haven’t gone. There are lots of opportunities in this meeting. The presidential forum opens the meeting with some suggestions about how to address what audiences may be interested in and how to present information in a way that connects. There is a themed joint session on Thursday called “Ways of Knowing” that will explore things from an indigenous perspective. Sunday night, before the meeting kicks off, students will be presenting their research – a great chance to listen to the next generation. On Tuesday, a panel will tackle the challenge of communicating – and listening –across our various disciplines and another set of talks will focus on communication and diversity. Finally, there are sessions that explore communication from a user perspective – including public health, energy, and people interested in tropical cyclones.
The second hardest part about communicating is adapting. I find myself clinging to my preferred mode of communication, even when the audience and circumstance change. It doesn’t always work – in the words of Hawkeye Pierce, “He doesn’t understand loud English, either, Frank”. Even only in English, there are new social media and devices that are rapidly changing the way we communicate.
There are a number of talks at the Annual that tackle this. There are sessions on mobile devices and e-books and a more general session to explore technology that enables communication. There are special sessions demonstrating technology in education and a special session on Thursday looks at how data publishing may change the way we communicate science.
Yogi Berra is reported to have said a whole lot of things, including “You can observe a lot just by watching.” In the spirit of this year’s Annual Meeting, with the theme of communication, I’d suggest, instead: “You can hear a lot by just listening.”
Have fun.
It snowed throughout the Northeast on Wednesday, but very few are feeling sorry for everyone in that region who had to pull out their shovels. The odds are good that you or someone you know in your state has had to deal with snow lately, too–no matter where you live in the country. According to the NWS’s National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center, which collects snow cover and depth data from ground reports and satellite observations, 49 of the 50 states currently have some snow cover…even Hawaii (this video was taken last month)! Only Florida has avoided a recent visit from Jack Frost. Cambridge, Massachusetts, or Anytown, USA?
This isn’t an unprecedented event–in fact, all 50 states had snow on the ground last February 12th, and University of Oklahoma meteorology student and AMS student member Patrick Marsh obtained pictures from every state of that day’s snow.
But “it’s not typical,” says James Peronto, public affairs officer for the NWS, who noted that recent snowfall throughout the Southeast has created the unusually white map.
“The Southern states don’t typically get significant snow amounts through the year,” Peronto said. “It takes a special kind of weather scenario to allow that to happen.”
(This quick history lesson on Southern snow illustrates how rarely such a scenario occurs.)
NWS observations show that 70.9% of the country was covered by snow as of yesterday, compared to an average of 35% snow cover in December. A NOAA map of U.S. snow depth and cover yesterday.
Snow cover and depth analyses like these are not just for interstate precipitation bragging rights or cabin-fever consolation. At the AMS Annual Meeting in Seattle, a number of science presentations will show the value of snow cover observations.
For example, Patricia de Rosnay et al. will present recent “major changes implemented” in the operational surface analysis of the European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasting’s Integrated Forecasting System,” including a method of combining satellite observations of snow cover for the land surface conditions for weather modeling. (Tuesday, 25 January, 1:45 p.m.; WSCC 611).
Sujay Kumar et al. (poster 42, 9:45 a.m.-11:15 a.m., Tuesday, 25 January), will discuss snow cover from active microwave remote sensing and look at the value of assimilating snow observations from multiple satellites for hydrological modeling. They point out that “Snow conditions on the land surface are … key components of the global hydrological cycle as they play a critical role in the determination of local and regional climate.”
One way in which this is true is in regions where melted snow dominates water supply. On Thursday 27 January (4:15 p.m., WSCC 611) Randal Koster et al. will “examine how knowledge of mid-winter snow accumulation and soil moisture contributes to our ability to predict streamflow months in advance.” In an experiment with multiple land surface models, “snowpack information by itself contributes, as expected, to skill attained in streamflow prediction, particularly in the mountainous west.” (They go on to show the additional importance of soil moisture conditions to long-lead forecasts, particularly in winter.)
Meanwhile, as a basis for the observations used in such studies, Ding Liang et al. (Poster 595; 8:30 a.m-4 p.m., Wednesday, 26 January) will delve into improvements for modeling of microwave emissivity of snow—an important step toward constructed improved snow cover data retrieved from satellite remote sensing.
Louis Uccellini
With a huge snowstorm blowing through the northeast United States, it seems an appropriate time to announce that Louis Uccellini has been voted the new AMS president-elect. The director of the National Weather Service’s National Centers for Environmental Prediction, Uccellini has coauthored two acclaimed AMS books on just the kind of snow the Northeast received today: Snowstorms Along the Northeastern Coast of the United States: 1955 to 1985 and Northeast Snowstorms. Uccellini will take over as AMS president in January 2012.
Four new councilors were also chosen in the elections: Peter J. Lamb, Patricia A. Phoebus, William L. Read, and H. Joe Witte. They began their three-year terms in January.
The AMS congratulates all the winners!
With most of us focusing so much on the weather in our hometown, it can be easy to forget that a local weather event can exert global influence. But given recent events in New York City and Panama, it appears that Mother Nature has been trying to reinforce that point.
The post-Christmas snowstorm that hammered much of the eastern United States produced chaos for travelers in a number of states, but it was the 20 inches that fell in New York City that had the farthest reaching impact. The closure of all three NYC metro airports caused a ripple effect that spread across the country and throughout other parts of the world. Not only were throngs of holiday travelers stranded at terminals in New York, but more than 5,000 domestic flights–as well as many in other countries–were canceled and countless more were backed up for days while waiting for LaGuardia, JFK, and Newark airports to get up and running. So, for example, more than 200 flights were canceled at Chicago’s O’Hare and Midway airports solely because of the East Coast snow, disrupting the plans of thousands of travelers even though the blizzard was hundreds of miles to the east.
(Aside 1: What could be a better use of your time when stuck in a snowstorm than this cool time-lapse video shot during the blizzard in the New Jersey shore town of Belmar…)
(Aside 2: There’s that old meteorologists’ adage, “Nobody lives at the Airport”, which happens to be the title of Larry Heitkemper’s presentation at our Seattle meeting, Wednesday 26 January. Heitkemper discusses how to transform official airport observations into data relevant to energy demand where people actually live; apparently, however, when blizzards strike far too many people really do live at the airport.)
Meanwhile, heavy rains last month in Panama forced the Panama Canal to close for just the third time in its 96-year history. Torrential rainfall inundated parts of Central and South America throughout November and early December. Two artificial lakes (Gatun and Alhajuela) in Panama that flow into the canal rose to record-high levels, forcing the canal to close for 17 hours so that one of the lakes could be drained. While the closing was short-lived, the global effects were still significant. About 5% of all international trade utilizes the canal, with approximately 40 ships winding through its 48 miles each day. While sections of the canal have been blocked at times, it was the first time the entire canal was closed since the United States invaded Panama in 1989. The only other closures were caused by landslides in 1915 and 1916, not long after it first opened.
The previous post from Annual Meeting Co-Chairs Steve Ackerman and Rajul Pandya talked about some of the new projects and sessions we’re trying out for the first time at the upcoming Annual Meeting. Here’s another that early-career AMS members will find particularly useful and fun: the first ever AMS reception for young professionals sponsored by SAIC on Sunday, 23 January, from 9-11pm in Grand Ballroom D of the Sheraton Hotel (headquarters hotel for the AMS Annual Meeting). You will have the opportunity to meet and network with others who are beginning their careers in the public, private and academic sectors. In addition, there will be opportunities to provide comments and suggestions to the AMS membership committee for how we can better serve our young professional membership.
If you consider yourself an AMS young professional (o.k., all scientists are young forever!) or if you’re trying to find your niche within the AMS community, looking for a job, need career advice; this is the place for you. Or, perhaps you are looking to connect with other AMS young professionals? This is the best opportunity ever at an AMS conference to do just that.
To join our facebook event, click here or search for “AMS Young Professionals Reception” in the events section. For more Information, email Gina Eosco, [email protected], or Ken Carey, [email protected].
