Matt

How Roguish Is a Rogue Wave?

For many travelers, lounging on the deck of a cruise liner with a fruity drink in hand is the ultimate in luxurious relaxation. According to the industry Web site cruisemarketwatch.com, more than 18 million people will vacation on a cruise ship this year. And while those idyllic visions of leisure are usually accurate, two recent disasters have spotlighted the potential hazards that unexpected severe weather can bring to cruise ships.
In early March, the Louis Majesty was cruising the Mediterranean off the coast of Marseille, France, with more than 1,900 people aboard when it was battered by three 30-foot waves. Two people were killed and 14 were injured after the waves broke glass, ripped out furniture, scattered debris, and flooded cabins. Marta de Alfonso, an oceanographer with the Spanish government, told the Associated Press that a powerful storm was influencing Mediterranean at that time, with reports of winds in excess of 100 km/h (60 mph).
Significant wave heights of around 20 feet were recorded by buoys in the area. “Rogue waves” are at least double the significant wave height, so the waves that struck the Louis Majesty are not considered rogue. As CNN’s Brandon Miller explains here, wind and current direction and sea floor topography can all cause abnormally large waves. Nevertheless, De Alfonso said that waves of the size that struck the ship generally appear in the Mediterranean only one or two times a year.
The previous week, the Costa Europa, a cruise liner in the Red Sea carrying almost 1,500 passengers, was docking at the Egyptian port of Sharm el-Sheik when it violently struck a pier, ripping open a six-foot-wide hole in the hull. Three crew members were killed and three passengers and one crew member went to a local hospital with injuries. The cruise line’s CEO blamed “exceptional bad weather conditions and an unexpected gust of wind” for the accident, although a marine official later said the cause was “100 percent human error.”
While it is clear that vacation cruises are generally safe, it isn’t entirely clear how common rogue waves are.  Several papers in recent AMS journals have addressed the statistics of waves that stick out from the general sea state around them (for example, Gibson et al. and Janssen and Herbers in Journal of Physical Oceanography), mostly trying to show how it might be possible to for waves to combine and interact to produce exceptional heights only very rarely.

In another paper in the same journal, Johannes Gemmrich and Chris Garrett of the University of British Columbia, make an interesting point about what makes these waves so potentially deadly:

What is clear from many cited examples of what observers describe as “freak” waves is that they tend to be much larger than the waves in the surrounding sea state, often appearing either singly or in small groups, without warning. In many situations, this unexpectedness is more dangerous than the wave height itself, for example, if mariners interpret an interval of several minutes of relatively small waves as an indication of a decreasing sea state.

However they go on to show, in at least one interpretation of their evidence, that the unexpectedness of rogue waves may be in the eye of the beholder.

The frequency with which unexpected waves occur even without the extra possible physics of resonant nonlinear interactions is remarkable and of scientific interest. It suggests that many reported freak waves may not be so freakish after all, but merely the simple consequence of linear superposition. Our predictions could be incorporated into maritime safety manuals or coastal warnings. To be sure, we have based our simulations on deep water scenarios and further analysis is required for nearshore situations, but it seems likely that similar results will emerge. Thus, mariners and tourists can be warned that even a few minutes of waves can be followed by a wave at least twice as high, with such an event likely every few days.

Rarely fatal, the statistics of surprise are nonetheless consistently…well… surprising.

Urbanization: Paving the Way for Floods

The Portuguese archipelago of Madeira, nestled in the Atlantic Ocean off the coasts of Portugal and northern Africa, is normally a subtropical island paradise. But severe flooding on the island last weekend created a disaster that killed dozens and has local environmental leaders blaming the urban planning in the region as much as recent heavy rainfall. They believe that extensive development on the island of about 250,000 people over the last few decades created conditions that exacerbated the severe weather that struck over the weekend, when more than 11 cm of rain per fell in 5 hours in the town of Funchal–more than 15% of what it normally receives in an entire year.

The village of Funchal during calmer times.

“The situation has gradually been aggravated due to land-use zoning problems and errors committed on the island,” said Hélder Spínola of Quercus, a Portuguese environmental organization. These “errors” include the development and paving of land along the coast and near waterways and disruption of the flow of Madeira’s three largest rivers. During the recent storm, the rivers overflowed, storm runoff did not effectively drain into the ground, and much of the water was forced into drainage channels that were unable to hold the tremendous amounts of rain. As a result, raging rivers of mud and debris stormed down the hillsides, plowing through roads, buildings, bridges, and anything else in their path. Adding to the problem was the absence of a weather radar in Madeira, which prevented an accurate forecast of the unusually strong storm.
While local government officials denied that faulty planning and overdevelopment were to blame for the catastrophe, research has long shown that urbanization increases frequency of flooding. For example, an upcoming article by Yang et al. in the Journal of Hydrometeorology finds that when the impervious surfaces cover more than a mere 3-5% of the total area in a watershed, there is a statistically significant effect on streamflow.

Olympic-Sized Fear: No Snow

The Vancouver Winter Olympics begin on Friday with the first-ever opening ceremonies held indoors. That decision seems prescient on the part of the organizers, given that Friday’s forecast is calling for rain, and some Olympic officials may be starting to wish they had scheduled the entire games to be conducted under controlled conditions. According to Environment Canada’s Mike McDonald, one of 30 meteorologists working at the Games, Vancouver’s average temperature of 7.19°C (44.9°F) in January was the highest ever recorded for that month and about 3°C warmer than the normal average. The unusual warmth has continued into February and caused a paucity of snow at some venues–particularly at Cypress Mountain, the site of the freestyle skiing and snowboarding events (moguls, aerials, ski cross, half-pipe, snowboard cross, and parallel giant slalom).
The situation is so extreme that snow is continuously being shipped from other local mountains to Cypress by both truck and helicopter to ensure there is enough for competition.

Olympic officials are hoping Cypress Mountain looks like this for the duration of the Winter Games.

In addition to importing the snow, tubes filled with dry ice have been scattered across the mountain in a never-before-used technique that distributes cold air across the snow to help preserve it.
The weather conditions have many pointing to global warming and wondering if the number of potential host sites for the Winter Games may continue to decrease due to the spread of warmer weather. But as the University of Washington’s Cliff Mass explains in his blog, most meteorologists in the Vancouver region have an alternate suspect:

The problem, of course is El Niño. . . . As I have explained before El Niños are associated with above normal temperatures and below normal precip after January 1. And substantially lower than normal spring snowpacks. Now, lets be careful…this is a correlation, not an exact prediction. El Niño winters tend to have less snow, but some have had more than normal. Now the problem we have is that we are starting the El Niño season with a below normal snowpack. . . . Lots of the NW is 65-80% of normal.

The rising sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific that indicate an El Niño event were originally identified last summer, and what Mass calls a “moderate”  El Niño has persisted through the winter and is expected to continue for months. Additionally, a flow of warm, moist air originating from around Hawaii known as the “pineapple express” could also be playing a part in the unusual warmth in the Pacific Northwest. And those blaming global warming should note that the Olympics have dealt with problems like these before, most notable in Innsbruck, Austria, in 1964, when a shortage of snow caused by a mild winter forced the Austrian army to carve out 20,000 bricks of ice to be used on the luge and bobsled runs, and also transport 40,000 cubic meters of snow to ski slopes, packing it down by hand.
With the additional snow arriving from other mountains, officials believe that the games will go on without a hitch, with Tim Gayda, vice president of sport for the Vancouver Olympic Organizing Committee, recently stating: “I am 100% confident that the events will take place and we’ll have enough snow to get the job done.”

AMS Climate Briefing to Examine Health Issues

A search for the word “health” in the AMS Annual Meeting conference program brings up more than 180 hits, highlighting the current interest in understanding climate’s effects on human health (and the best ways to mitigate these effects). Tomorrow’s (February 5) AMS Climate Briefing in Washington, D.C., will address these issues with the help of three public health experts:

Rita Colwell

Dr. Rita Colwell of the University of Maryland and the Johns Hopkins School of Public Health will talk about the connection between environmental change (such as heat waves and hydrologic extremes) and disease risk, with a focus on infectious diseases, including both vector-borne (e.g., malaria, plague, and many viral diseases) and water-borne diseases (e.g., cholera).  She will also discuss other effects such as mental health problems and civil disruption.
Howard Frumkin

Dr. Howard Frumkin of the CDC will look at the framework for public health response to environmental threats that was developed at the CDC. Now being implemented at the federal, state, and local levels, the response involves such longstanding core public health activities as disease surveillance, outbreak investigations, vulnerability assessments, health communication, and preparedness planning.  Additionally, he will highlight the importance of assessing the health consequences of mitigation strategies so that decision-makers can choose the most health-protective approaches.
Jonathan Patz

Dr. Jonathan Patz of the University of Wisconsin will explain the innovative strategy known as co-benefits, which promotes improved health while also mitigating climate change.  For example, certain transportation strategies both limit travel demands and encourage walking and/or bicycling, thereby promoting positive health effects (such as reduced risk of cardiovascular disease, cancer, and asthma) as well as a cleaner environment.  Dr. Patz will discuss recent U.S. studies suggesting that climate change mitigation could offer a substantial opportunity to improve public health and save billions of dollars in healthcare costs and worker productivity.
The hour-and-a-half long briefing is given twice on Capitol Hill: at 11 a.m. in Room 210 of the Cannon House Office Building and at 2 p.m in Room 406 of the Dirksen Senate Office Building.

Kenneth Spengler, 1915-2010

AMS Executive Director Emeritus Kenneth C. Spengler, a vital force in the growth of the AMS after World War II, passed away yesterday at the age of 94. Dr. Spengler was executive director of the AMS from 1946 to 1988, leading the Society at a time when membership surged from 2,000 to about 10,000. In 1958, he negotiated the acquisition of the current AMS Headquarters building at 45 Beacon Street in Boston.
The entire AMS community extends its condolences to Dr. Spengler’s family. We invite our readers to share their favorite stories and memories of Dr. Spengler in the comments.
UPDATE: The wake for Dr. Spengler will be held on Sunday, January 31, from 3:00 to 7:00 p.m. at the Douglass Funeral Home in Lexington, Massachusetts. There will be a short service at the same location on Monday at 10:00 a.m., and the funeral will be at Sacred Heart Church in Lexington at 11:00 a.m.

An Expanding Security Role for the Military

On Tuesday, the Introduction to Environmental Security and Climate Change presented by John Lanicci and James Ramsay of Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University broadened the scope of national security issues to include extreme environmental events and climate anomalies, the destabilizing effects of these events, and the potential security implications.
In this clip, Lanicci discusses the accompanying chart from the U.S. Transportation Command.

A Plea for Collaboration

Wednesday’s panel discussion on the Evolution of Hydromet and Climate Services emphasized the need for the health and climate communities to work together more closely. In this context, Kris Ebi of the IPCC made a direct request to federal agencies and  journal editors about papers involving multiple disciplines. Listen to the clip here.

"An Incredible Experience"

The AMS/UCAR Congressional Science Fellowship is a unique opportunity for scientists to become involved in the policy process on Capitol Hill. On Tuesday, the current AMS fellow and two former fellows gathered to discuss some of their experiences and dispense advice to potential applicants.
The 2009-10 AMS Congressional Fellow is Jonah Steinbuck, who received his Ph.D. in environmental fluid mechanics and hydrology from Stanford University in 2009. Steinbuck describes his work as a fellow for Representative Edward Markey (D-MA) in the Select Committee for Energy Independence and Global Warming as an “incredible experience.”
Steinbuck noted that he chose working with Markey and the Select Committee for a number of reasons: 1) because of his interest in climate policy and his belief that the Select Committee gave him the best opportunity to pursue that interest, 2) because “Chairman Markey is one of the leaders in environmental and energy issues,” and 3) because of the Select Committee staff, which allows him to be “a sponge absorbing information” from “some of the best climate policy talent on Capitol Hill.”

Jonah Steinbuck

Perhaps the highlight of Steinbuck’s fellowship thus far was his recent trip to the Copenhagen Summit, where he received a credential from the  State Department and was able to attend the talks. Steinbuck was particularly impressed with the dramatic conclusion when President Obama negotiated the final text of the agreement with other world leaders.
While the Select Committee awaits the final results of the conference, Steinbuck is also currently tracking EPA regulation of greenhouse gases while monitoring a number of bills proposed to block such regulation from stationary sources.
Past fellows Stephanie Herring and Michael Morgan also spoke about their Congressional Fellowship experiences. Herring, who like Steinbuck served under Congressman Markey in the Select Committee for Energy Independence and Global Warming, is currently working on climate science and service issues as a climate policy analyst in the office of the Department of the Deputy Undersecretary at NOAA. During her time as a fellow, Herring worked on the original version of the legislation that eventually became the Clean Energy and Security Act (also known as the Waxman-Markey Bill). She called the fellowship an ideal transition into new pursuits and in this clip responded to a question on how her fellowship experience enhanced her Ph.D. studies.
Morgan, currently a professor at the University of Wisconsin, recalled his time in Senator Benjamin Cardin’s (D-MD) personal office with fondness, even though, as he explained here, it was the exact opposite of what he originally thought he was looking for in a fellowship experience. Morgan explained that one of the most important things he learned on Capitol Hill was that “science is not enough”–senators must consider all their legislative priorities and their constituents’ priorities and determine how science fits into that framework.
The speakers cited numerous characteristics that Congressional Fellowship applicants should have: analytic skills, interpersonal skills, awareness of federal policy, an understanding of the role and limits of science in federal policy, diplomacy and political acumen, a sense of ethics, and perhaps most importantly, a legitimate interest in policy that has been displayed in their academic career. They noted that the competition for the fellowship is considerable and that the scientific records of most applicants is outstanding.
Applications for the 2010-2011 fellowship are due by February 10.

We Told You There Would Be Cake. . .

. . . but we may have neglected to mention that it would be the coolest weather-related cake you’ve ever seen! The confectionary delight was a highlight of Monday’s AMS book launch party and celebrated the 2009 release of The AMS Weather Book by Jack Williams.

Jack Williams receives his ASLI's Choice Award from Maria Latyszewskyj , chair of the ASLI's Choice Award Committee

A few minutes later, in a special ceremony, the accolades for Jack continued when he received an honorable mention ASLI’s Choice Award in the “popular” category. The fifth annual ASLI’s Choice Awards ceremony will be held on Wednesday at 4:45 p.m. at Publisher’s Row in the Exhibit Hall.
Congratulations to Jack on the success of his book!

K-12 Education at Home and Abroad

The rewards of teaching the Earth sciences at the K-12 level in the United States are great, but sometimes so are the frustrations. At Monday’s education forum, Sandra Henderson touched on some of these issues in a discussion of recent UCAR surveys of K-12 Earth science teachers.
UCAR, which  supports the professional development of science teachers through their “Windows to the Universe” website and other initiatives, generated almost 1,000 responses from National Earth Science Teachers Association (NESTA) members and newsletter subscribers. While making note of one particularly positive development–that teachers now have reasonably good access to technology and utilize it regularly–Henderson also listed the top 10 concerns of science teachers and summarized the surveys’ findings.
So how can these concerns be addressed? American educators might look to their colleagues across the Pacific for a uniquely successful approach to environmental education. In another forum presentation, Michihiko Tonouchi of the Japan Meteorological Business Support Center in Tokyo described a program in Japanese public schools that teaches students about global warming and other environmental issues.

A teaching aid used in Japan's elementary environmental class. A popular technique is to compare the warming of the Earth to human illness. The text in this picture reads "The Earth has a fever!!".

Weather studies in Japan are now a compulsory subject for elementary school fifth-graders and those in their second year of junior-high school. In the program described by Tonouchi, approximately 100 broadcast meteorologists from the Weather Caster Network (WCN) and 300 engineers from Sharp share teaching responsibilities, with the broadcasters explaining basic scientific principles of global warming and the engineers discussing mitigation and adaptation strategies. Quizzes and hands-on experiments are an important part of the instruction. Along with global warming, alternative energy and recycling are also studied.
A website maintained in conjunction with the program provides a forum for student and teacher feedback, as well as activities, articles, and other resources.  Tonouchi noted that both students and teachers have enthusiastically embraced the program, and said that the program’s organizers would like to expand the project to the U.S. and other parts of Asia.