It snowed throughout the Northeast on Wednesday, but very few are feeling sorry for everyone in that region who had to pull out their shovels. The odds are good that you or someone you know in your state has had to deal with snow lately, too–no matter where you live in the country. According to the NWS’s National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center, which collects snow cover and depth data from ground reports and satellite observations, 49 of the 50 states currently have some snow cover…even Hawaii (this video was taken last month)! Only Florida has avoided a recent visit from Jack Frost.
This isn’t an unprecedented event–in fact, all 50 states had snow on the ground last February 12th, and University of Oklahoma meteorology student and AMS student member Patrick Marsh obtained pictures from every state of that day’s snow.
But “it’s not typical,” says James Peronto, public affairs officer for the NWS, who noted that recent snowfall throughout the Southeast has created the unusually white map.
“The Southern states don’t typically get significant snow amounts through the year,” Peronto said. “It takes a special kind of weather scenario to allow that to happen.”
(This quick history lesson on Southern snow illustrates how rarely such a scenario occurs.)
NWS observations show that 70.9% of the country was covered by snow as of yesterday, compared to an average of 35% snow cover in December.
Snow cover and depth analyses like these are not just for interstate precipitation bragging rights or cabin-fever consolation. At the AMS Annual Meeting in Seattle, a number of science presentations will show the value of snow cover observations.
For example, Patricia de Rosnay et al. will present recent “major changes implemented” in the operational surface analysis of the European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasting’s Integrated Forecasting System,” including a method of combining satellite observations of snow cover for the land surface conditions for weather modeling. (Tuesday, 25 January, 1:45 p.m.; WSCC 611).
Sujay Kumar et al. (poster 42, 9:45 a.m.-11:15 a.m., Tuesday, 25 January), will discuss snow cover from active microwave remote sensing and look at the value of assimilating snow observations from multiple satellites for hydrological modeling. They point out that “Snow conditions on the land surface are … key components of the global hydrological cycle as they play a critical role in the determination of local and regional climate.”
One way in which this is true is in regions where melted snow dominates water supply. On Thursday 27 January (4:15 p.m., WSCC 611) Randal Koster et al. will “examine how knowledge of mid-winter snow accumulation and soil moisture contributes to our ability to predict streamflow months in advance.” In an experiment with multiple land surface models, “snowpack information by itself contributes, as expected, to skill attained in streamflow prediction, particularly in the mountainous west.” (They go on to show the additional importance of soil moisture conditions to long-lead forecasts, particularly in winter.)
Meanwhile, as a basis for the observations used in such studies, Ding Liang et al. (Poster 595; 8:30 a.m-4 p.m., Wednesday, 26 January) will delve into improvements for modeling of microwave emissivity of snow—an important step toward constructed improved snow cover data retrieved from satellite remote sensing.
Uccellini Is AMS President-Elect
With a huge snowstorm blowing through the northeast United States, it seems an appropriate time to announce that Louis Uccellini has been voted the new AMS president-elect. The director of the National Weather Service’s National Centers for Environmental Prediction, Uccellini has coauthored two acclaimed AMS books on just the kind of snow the Northeast received today: Snowstorms Along the Northeastern Coast of the United States: 1955 to 1985 and Northeast Snowstorms. Uccellini will take over as AMS president in January 2012.
Four new councilors were also chosen in the elections: Peter J. Lamb, Patricia A. Phoebus, William L. Read, and H. Joe Witte. They began their three-year terms in January.
The AMS congratulates all the winners!
Local Storms, International Headaches
With most of us focusing so much on the weather in our hometown, it can be easy to forget that a local weather event can exert global influence. But given recent events in New York City and Panama, it appears that Mother Nature has been trying to reinforce that point.
The post-Christmas snowstorm that hammered much of the eastern United States produced chaos for travelers in a number of states, but it was the 20 inches that fell in New York City that had the farthest reaching impact. The closure of all three NYC metro airports caused a ripple effect that spread across the country and throughout other parts of the world. Not only were throngs of holiday travelers stranded at terminals in New York, but more than 5,000 domestic flights–as well as many in other countries–were canceled and countless more were backed up for days while waiting for LaGuardia, JFK, and Newark airports to get up and running. So, for example, more than 200 flights were canceled at Chicago’s O’Hare and Midway airports solely because of the East Coast snow, disrupting the plans of thousands of travelers even though the blizzard was hundreds of miles to the east.
(Aside 1: What could be a better use of your time when stuck in a snowstorm than this cool time-lapse video shot during the blizzard in the New Jersey shore town of Belmar…)
(Aside 2: There’s that old meteorologists’ adage, “Nobody lives at the Airport”, which happens to be the title of Larry Heitkemper’s presentation at our Seattle meeting, Wednesday 26 January. Heitkemper discusses how to transform official airport observations into data relevant to energy demand where people actually live; apparently, however, when blizzards strike far too many people really do live at the airport.)
Meanwhile, heavy rains last month in Panama forced the Panama Canal to close for just the third time in its 96-year history. Torrential rainfall inundated parts of Central and South America throughout November and early December. Two artificial lakes (Gatun and Alhajuela) in Panama that flow into the canal rose to record-high levels, forcing the canal to close for 17 hours so that one of the lakes could be drained. While the closing was short-lived, the global effects were still significant. About 5% of all international trade utilizes the canal, with approximately 40 ships winding through its 48 miles each day. While sections of the canal have been blocked at times, it was the first time the entire canal was closed since the United States invaded Panama in 1989. The only other closures were caused by landslides in 1915 and 1916, not long after it first opened.
New and Just for You: The Young Professionals Reception
The previous post from Annual Meeting Co-Chairs Steve Ackerman and Rajul Pandya talked about some of the new projects and sessions we’re trying out for the first time at the upcoming Annual Meeting. Here’s another that early-career AMS members will find particularly useful and fun: the first ever AMS reception for young professionals sponsored by SAIC on Sunday, 23 January, from 9-11pm in Grand Ballroom D of the Sheraton Hotel (headquarters hotel for the AMS Annual Meeting). You will have the opportunity to meet and network with others who are beginning their careers in the public, private and academic sectors. In addition, there will be opportunities to provide comments and suggestions to the AMS membership committee for how we can better serve our young professional membership.
If you consider yourself an AMS young professional (o.k., all scientists are young forever!) or if you’re trying to find your niche within the AMS community, looking for a job, need career advice; this is the place for you. Or, perhaps you are looking to connect with other AMS young professionals? This is the best opportunity ever at an AMS conference to do just that.
To join our facebook event, click here or search for “AMS Young Professionals Reception” in the events section. For more Information, email Gina Eosco, [email protected], or Ken Carey, [email protected].
Looking Forward to Seattle
by Steve Ackerman and Rajul Pandya, Co-Chairs, 91st AMS Annual Meeting
Happy New Year! Following the communication theme of the 2011 AMS Annual Meeting in Seattle Washington, we thought it appropriate to remind you of some activities that will occur during our annual meeting. There will be some new events this year to accompany the exciting events we have come to appreciate during this meeting – such as Weatherfest and the awards dinner.
This meeting will be the “pilot” effort of the Beacons program. AMS Beacons are folks that will be stationed throughout the conference area to greet and assist you as you participate in this meeting. While there is a special opportunity to meet Beacons at the New Attendee Briefing on Sunday, they will be available throughout the week as well.
For the first time, our annual meeting includes a visual art exhibition hosted by the conference center. The exhibit, Forecast: Communicating Weather and Climate, remains in the conference center through April and is open to the public. The purpose of the exhibit is to engage scientists, artists, and others in cross-disciplinary dialogue on ways to communicate weather and climate issues to the general public. So, roam the halls of the conference center to view and discuss the artworks.
There will be a couple of student activities as well. With help from our vendors, students will make and share measurements of our meeting environment in an activity called, appropriately, “Measuring the Environment”. The Student conference on Saturday will include a game quest, including puzzles to solve and things to find, and the chance to win fantastic prizes.
Finally, the Sunday evening before the conference features two grassroots events: “The Color of Weather”, a gathering celebrating the increasing ethnic and racial diversity of our society, and the “Coriolis” reception for Gay, Lesbian, Bisexual, Transgender and Friends. Both events take place 7:00–9:00 p.m. at the Sheraton Seattle Hotel (1400 Sixth Avenue) “The Color of Weather” in the Willow Room and “Coriolis” in Diamond Rooms A and B.
Look for further updates on posts on this blog, AMS Facebook and Twitter (#91stAMS) feeds.
Snow for Alabama: Can the Models Do the Talking?
Alabama hasn’t had a lot of luck with White Christmases. In Birmingham, for instance, it’s only dusted snow once, and that wasn’t an actual measurable accumulation.
It’s no wonder then that the prospect of snow tomorrow has sent chills of excitement down the spines of Alabamans who have had their eyes glued to the computer models this week.
On his AlabamaWx blog, ABC 33/40 broadcast meteorologist James Spann and Tim Coleman have been trying to temper excessive expectations for days now, even while trying to patiently explain the promising but multifarious model output. On Wednesday, for instance:
There is very little skill in forecasting winter storm events in Alabama until you get with about 48 hours of the event. Nobody knows the exact snow placement and amount this early. Even the know-it-alls don’t know, even though they will never let you bebutlieve it (those of us that have been doing this a long time professionally have had enough doses of humility over the years to be firmly out of the know-it-all camp). We can begin talking accumulation placement tomorrow when that 48 hour window opens up.
and:
The NAM and the GFS, the two primary American models, show very limited moisture, and not much more than a dusting of snow for the I-20 corridor. The deepest moisture will be over the southern half of the state, where initially the precipitation will fall in the form of rain.
The ECMWF and the GEM, the European and Canadian models, are a little more bullish on moisture for North Alabama, but it is still limited. Both of these models suggest enough snow to get 1/2 to 1 inch on the ground. Which, if happens, would be historic for Birmingham. Up north, everybody would completely laugh at the fuss this is creating.
All this talk about what the computers say apparently gets a violently different reaction from folks depending on the stakes. Therein lies a lesson in communicating with science as we approach a meeting devoted to the topic. Wrote one commenter yesterday on AlabamaWx:
Yeah I’m.pretty upset that one.minute the models are right on for a winter storm then the next it flakes out. It literally crushes a lot of peoples wants and all but atleast we did have a chance a day ago! Now its all a good memory.
Just the day before, Spann wrote:
I am amazed at the angry tone of e-mails this evening… some are simply livid that I am not predicting a big Christmas day snow storm that would be historic for Alabama. I will probably never understand why winter weather brings out such passion and emotion. Seems to be more intense every year. Never was like this in the “old days”… one guy called me an “idiot of historic proportion” because “his forecast” was for 6 inches of snow for Birmingham. Wow.
Apparently, despite the cool dispassion of mathematics and computers, it is actually easier for people to rant at computers churning out uncertainty than
Good Things in Small Packages
Don’t let the size of those boxes under the Christmas tree fool you. Good things sometimes come in little packages, and here’s a video from the University of Michigan to prove it.
U of M students designed and built a satellite called RAX, or Radio Aurora Explorer, to fit into the standardized 10 cm x 10 cm x 10 cm frames of the CubeSat initiative, which puts low-cost instruments into orbit. Funded by NSF, RAX is a joint venture between the university and SRI International.
Basically the idea is to study plasma instabilities in the ionosphere. These clouds of magnetic disturbance can disrupt communications between Earth and spacecraft. RAX receives and processes signals from incoherent radar based in Alaska that are scattered by these plasma clouds. This makes RAX the NSF’s first space weather satellite. Launched one month ago today, the mission has already dealt with low-power problems with the batteries, but has also proved successful in receiving signals from the radar in Alaska.
The mission is described in this video made before the launch:
You can keep track of RAX on the mission blog, and hear Hasan Bahcivan of SRI present the latest on the mission at the AMS Annual Meeting in Seattle (Tuesday 25 January, 4:45 pm, 4C-3). Also, Richard Behnke of NSF will discuss cubesat and other aspects of the NSF space weather plans (Monday 24 January, 11:45 am, 4C-3).
Shovels, Cleats, and Fabrics: Just Another Snow Story
The Minnesota Vikings are hosting football outdoors for the first time in 29 years in their hometown, thanks to the collapse last week of the fabric roof of their home, the Metrodome. Last Sunday the football team decamped to a dome in Detroit, but tonight they’re expecting six inches of snow in Minneapolis to greet the Chicago Bears (themselves no strangers to snow and cold, of course).
The weather story this time is not just the falling snow, but the valiant efforts of workers and volunteers who have prepared the University of Minnesota’s FieldTurf synthetic field for this Monday night game. Not only does the snow need to be cleared, but the frozen field needs to be warmed sufficiently to prevent a slew of injuries. One player called the surface “hard as concrete.” Unlike NFL stadiums, which deal with a season that stretches into December, the university’s field is normally shut down by now, and does not have heating coils underneath to blunt the effects of freezing air temperatures. In addition the stadium as a whole was “winterized,” or put in cold storage with pipes dissembled to withstand freezing, so reawakening the facility for the game was quite a process.
The conditions of the game make one appreciate the need for a dome for winter sports in Minnesota, but last week’s spectacular roof collapse raises the architectural question: how to design a large roof for Minnesota’s famously varied climate.
The keepers of the Metrodome have good reason to believe that, an occasional roof collapse aside, fabric is still the right answer. The extremes of temperature in Minneapolis stretch and contract any covering, so in fact a flexible roof is ideal. And the maintenance of a fixed structure also means significant snow removal costs which may outweigh the occasional rip and fix for a fabric roof. (Thanks to the forecasts for heavy snow, workers were on the Metrodome roof trying to clear and melt snow last Friday before retreating in a lost cause .) The main downside of fabrics these days is the energy cost of the air pressure between the two sheets of the dome to keep the roof inflated.
Here’s a radio press conference discussing the climatic considerations of the stadium after a previous collapse of the Metrodome roof, also due to snowfall, back in 1982.
It takes a particular kind of storm to damage the roof. The design calls for warm air forced between the outer and inner layers to help melt the snow, but particularly cold storms can overcome that defense, especially if coupled with sufficient water content for a heavy accumulation and winds to drift the snow and cause particularly devastating loads in particular spots on the dome. Apparently even in Minnesota this doesn’t happen often enough to make other roof solutions less expensive or more convenient.
Say It Ain't Snow, Santa
Is it possible that dreaming of a white Christmas can backfire? Parts of the United Kingdom may find out over the next week if bitter cold temperatures and heavy snowfall continues. The conditions–which also have included gale-force winds at times–are getting so severe that officials are warning that many packages may not be delivered in time for them to be opened on Christmas morning, creating the possibility that Santa may not be arriving (on time) this year. Heavy snow predicted for the weekend has already started in many locations, and severe weather warnings have been given for a number of areas. (The UK Met Office has been tracking the snowfall on an interactive map on their website.)
Temperatures consistently below 0°C have been chilling the region for weeks, with The Weather Outlook forecaster Brian Gaze calling the cold spell “a once-in-a-lifetime event.” Snow and ice on roads, runways, and rails have created travel headaches, with the next week likely to be even worse. But no one’s travel is as important as St. Nick’s, and at this point the forecasts are not favorable.
“This year in Scotland and the northeast [England] it is likely that Father Christmas won’t be coming,” said Simon Veale, director of the delivery company Global Freight Solutions, in a statement certain to shock children throughout the United Kingdom.
The current scene is evoking comparisons to perhaps the U.K.’s most famous holiday weather event, the 1927 Christmas Blizzard that left 20-foot snowdrifts in some locations.
Video Whirls Thru Hyperactive Hurricane Season
NOAA recently posted its annual video compilation of the entire 2010 Atlantic hurricane season, and it’s impressive. Crammed into just under 5 fast-paced minutes, you’ll see 6 months of tropical and mid-latitude weather seamlessly wax, wane, dip, and swirl across your computer screen. It stars this year’s 19 named storms, from Alex to Tomas, and even a few Eastern Pacific whirls. Can you spot them all? (Occasional names following the organized cloud clusters will help you.)
NOAA’s Environmental Visualization Lab produced the video. You can view the larger version on YouTube (where the tiny storm names are easier to see).
An historical overview of the 2010 season is available from NOAA here.
For more detail, the National Hurricane Center has archived the season’s tropical cyclone advisories, and will eventually post summary reports of all of the year’s named hurricanes and tropical storms. New this year, you can view the individual storm tracks in Google Earth; from the summary reports page, click on the KMZ link after each storm name to launch Google Earth, and then interact by clicking a storm position to get specific advisory information. (What’s that you say? You don’t have Google Earth?? Well, just download it!)