State of the Union STEMwinder

by William Hooke, Director, AMS Policy Program, from the AMS project, Living on the Real World
Stemwinder? An old-fashioned mechanical watch needing winding. Now there’s a word that probably will disappear from the vocabulary in a few more years! Dictionary.com tells us that it’s also old slang for “a rousing speech, especially a stirring political address.”
But STEM itself is an acronym that will be with us for a while. It refers to Science-, Technology-, Engineering-, and Mathematics education.
President Obama’s speech last night called all this to mind. Partisans found much in his talk to like. And one area of emphasis was STEM education. An excerpt:

Maintaining our leadership in research and technology is crucial to America’s success. But if we want to win the future – if we want innovation to produce jobs in America and not overseas – then we also have to win the race to educate our kids.

Think about it. Over the next ten years, nearly half of all new jobs will require education that goes beyond a high school degree. And yet, as many as a quarter of our students aren’t even finishing high school. The quality of our math and science education lags behind many other nations. America has fallen to 9th in the proportion of young people with a college degree.(Emphasis added). And so the question is whether all of us – as citizens, and as parents – are willing to do what’s necessary to give every child a chance to succeed.

That responsibility begins not in our classrooms, but in our homes and communities. It’s family that first instills the love of learning in a child. Only parents can make sure the TV is turned off and homework gets done. We need to teach our kids that it’s not just the winner of the Super Bowl who deserves to be celebrated, but the winner of the science fair; that success is not a function of fame or PR, but of hard work and discipline.

Our schools share this responsibility. When a child walks into a classroom, it should be a place of high expectations and high performance. But too many schools don’t meet this test. That’s why instead of just pouring money into a system that’s not working, we launched a competition called Race to the Top. To all fifty states, we said, “If you show us the most innovative plans to improve teacher quality and student achievement, we’ll show you the money.”

There’s more to the president’s speech, but this gives the flavor. He is right to emphasize education. Most of us want to see American values maintained, advanced, and extended throughout the remainder of this century. If we were the most populous country in the world, perhaps we could tolerate a mediocre educational system and achieve such aims through sheer force of numbers. But given that we add up to no more than a few percent of the world’s people, we must ensure that our science and engineering are cutting edge. We must create and innovate. And for the world’s sake, the best of our accomplishments should contribute to sustainable development – new energy technologies; better understanding of Earth processes; greater use of renewable resources; knowing how to protect the environment and ecosystems.
Even were we the best in this arena there would be no cause for complacency. But lagging behind other countries with respect not just to STEM education but also attainment of college degrees? This is truly alarming. Such decline in educational standing is probably the most reliable leading indicator that future U.S. fortunes and U.S. standing in the world will decline in years ahead. A November post on Living on the Real World describes how an emphasis on Earth science in public education would help reverse this threat.
Here the American Meteorological Society can hold its head high. For decades Society staff (led initially by Ira Geer, and now by Jim Brey), and a vast and committed network of teacher-collaborators across the country have made Earth science accessible to American public-school students. This week at the Annual Meeting the 20th Symposium on Education was causing a lot of hallway buzz. Participants were finding the sessions especially lively and energizing. Are you one of their number? Are you working at one of the federal agencies – NSF, NOAA, NASA, the Navy, and others – who have supported this work? You should take special satisfaction in your contributions to world well-being.
Others of you should be pleased at this recognition for your efforts as well. James R. Mahoney (Chair), Martin Storksdieck (Director), and others standing up the new NAS/NRC Climate Change Education Roundtable should give yourselves a pat on the back. Are you working in the education programs of any of the federal agencies? Enjoy the moment. But in a sense, all of us in this community, as well as the media who cover our stories, are donating dollars, thought, and effort to this great cause. We should all feel good.
And then get back to the task at hand!

Meet the Winners, Then Read Their Books

Got a long flight home after the meeting? Looking for some reading material to help pass the time? Then you should stop by the Atmospheric Science Librarians International booth (# 121) in the main Exhibit Hall at 4:45 p.m. on Wednesday for the 2011 ASLI’s Choice Book Awards. The ceremony will offer an opportunity to hobnob with some of the literati, as a number of authors of the honored books will be present to accept their awards.
The ASLI’s Choice Committee selected the best titles from 2010 in three categories: science, history, and popular.
The winner in the science category is Measurement Methods in Atmospheric Sciences: In Situ and Remote, by Stefan Emeis, which ASLI chose for being “a comprehensive overview of the many atmospheric monitoring and measurement methods and instruments.”
The top choice in the history category is Vast Machine: Computer Models, Climate Data, and the Politics of Global Warming, by Paul N. Edwards, selected for its “insightful analysis of the models and data that form the basis of our understanding of climate change.”
In the popular category, the winner is The Encyclopedia of Weather and Climate Change :  A Complete Visual Guide,  by Juliane L. Fry, Hans-F Graf, Richard Grotjahn, Marilyn N. Raphael, Clive Saunders, and Richard Whitaker, which ASLI describes as a “beautifully illustrated, authoritative and succinct introduction to meteorology and climate.”
For the second year in a row, an AMS title will be feted, as Weather on the Air: A History of Broadcast Meteorology received an honorable mention in the history category. Author Robert Henson will be at the ceremony to accept his award, and he’ll also be signing copies of the book on the skybridge near the AMS Resource Center (Exhibit Hall 4D) on Wednesday from 2:45 to 4:00 p.m.

Top 10 Lists, NOAA-Style

The arrival of a new year is a good time to reflect on the significant events of the past 12 months. On Monday, Deke Arndt of NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center highlighted the noteworthy trends and events of 2010 in his talk, “The Climate of 2010 in Historical Perspective.” The presentation included these top-10 lists of notable 2010 events, as voted by a panel of weather and climate experts.
National Events
1. Consecutive Winter Blizzards/Extreme Snow Season (December-February)
2. Nashville and Central TN flooding (May)
3. Hot Summer in the East (June-August)
4. Midwest Super Storm (October)
5. Hawaiian Drought (Throughout 2010)
6. No hurricanes made U.S. landfall despite active Atlantic (June-November)
7. Near Eradication of CONUS Drought (July)

The record-setting hailstone of Vivian, South Dakota

8. Vivian, SD Hailstone (July)
9. New England Flooding (February-April)
10. Minnesota as tornado leader (Spring & Summer)
Global Events
1. Russo-European-Asian Heat Waves (Summer)
2. 2010 as [near] warmest on record (Calendar Year)
3. Pakistani Flooding (Late July into August)
4. El Niño to La Niña Transition (Mid-to-Late Boreal Spring)
5. Negative Arctic Oscillation (December-February)
6. Brazillian Drought (Ongoing)
7. Historically inactive NE Pacific Hurricane Season (May 15-November 30)
8. Historic N. Hemispheric Snow Retreat (January through June)
9. Minimum Sea Ice Extent (Mid September)
10. China Drought (First half of 2010)

Photos, Photos, and More Photos

Pictures are up on the Ametsoc Facebook photo albums! Here’s just a sampling, from Sunday’s WeatherFest. Don’t forget to check back there for more updates later today and throughout the week.

A young girl peeks over the top of her 3-D glasses as another looks on. The Seattle youngsters were taking in a 3-D animation of weather and climate at the University of Wisconsin-Madison booth.

Miss United States Air Caitlin Taylor, University of Oklahoma, shows a Seattle teen how to build and use a air cannon at the 10th Annual WeatherFest.

A brother and Sister from Snohomish, WA, participate in "Make Your Own Tornado" at the National Severe StormLab booth during the 10th Annual WeatherFest.

Children compete in a game of "Wring Out a Cloud" at the CoCoRaHS booth during WeatherFest.

His eyes grow big and wide as a young boy from Gig Harbor, WA, gets a close look at the skeleton of a Orca in the Seattle Aquarium booth.

Turning Scientists into Communicators

With the word “communication” flying around the meeting all week, it might become easy to lose track of how it applies to each of us as individuals–or whether it applies to us at all. Does your role as a meteorologist also involve being a communicator? Isn’t that the job of the professional communicators?

This weekend’s communication workshop, “Integrating Communication, Weather, and Climate: More Than Just ”Talking about the Weather!’, asked those questions to some communication professionals, and their answers provided new insights to the many meteorologists in attendance. They ultimately agreed on a couple of key points: 1) the complexities of climate science make communication particularly difficult, and 2) we all have a role in communicating our science, whether it be to the public, government officials, colleagues, students, or even to our families, neighbors, and friends.

And why shouldn’t scientists also be communicators? Panelist Kim Curtis of Resource Media pointed out that scientists are among the most trusted groups by the public, more than even friends and family (and that is despite the fact that only 18% of the public actually know a scientist personally.)

Graphic from a joint Nature/Scientific American survey asking how much respondents trusted various groups of people on a scale of 1 (strongly distrust) to 5 (strongly trust).

The problem is that there are serious obstacles to getting the message through to the public and insuring they are receiving accurate information. Kathy Rowan of George Mason University highlighted the difficulties of communicating slow-onset risks–that is, hazards (such as long-term climate change) that progress over an extended period of time. She pointed out that humans are wired to focus on what is directly in front of them and often have difficulty looking into the future.

Expanding on that point, Bud Ward of the Yale Forum on Climate Change and the Media pointed out that when discussing climate change, the public has difficulty accepting costs that must be paid today when tangible benefits may not be felt for a very long time. As he mentioned, we have trouble even agreeing whether to use the term”climate change” or “global warming.” And of course, there are the political aspects related to communicating climate to the public. All of this obviously generates confusion.

So how can scientists overcome these difficulties and act as de facto communicators? The panelists’ recommendations included making explanations as succint and as simple as possible and addressing and discussing uncertainty in science rather than ignoring it. But the prevailing opinion was that scientists communicate most effectively when they make science relevant to the public. Some panelists noted the importance of telling stories that help the public understand how climate impacts their daily lives. And Ward explained how he avoids contentious political discussion when he speaks to local communities by emphasizing the specific ways climate could impact those areas.

According to the panelists, the ultimate goal is make science interesting to the general public while also providing technically accurate information–a fine balance, indeed, but one that hopefully will become less daunting after this week’s meeting.

Bring Your Popcorn!

Satisfy your movie fix all week at the Weather Video Preview Theater in room 303. Close to 50 different movies will be shown throughout the meeting, with screenings running from 8:00 a.m. to 5:30 p.m. every day. DVDs of many of the movies will be available for purchase at the AMS Resource Center in Exhibit Hall 4D (they can also be found online at http://www.sky-fire.tv/index.cgi/INDEX.HTML), and a portion of proceeds from every DVD sold will be directed to AMS educational and outreach programs.
The movies were specifically chosen for the quality of both their production and their scientific content, with the subject matter ranging from the quick-moving (lightning, tornadoes, hurricanes, and extreme storms of all kinds) to the slowest of the slow (glaciers). 
Among those films that are back by popular demand are the British Broadcasting Cooperation’s Cloudspotting program (a compilation of high-definition time-lapse skyscapes set to music), as well as features from the National Science Foundation’s series for the ResearchChannel.
Check out below the preview of the Nova special, Hunt for the Supertwister, one of the films to be featured at the Preview Theater.

Science, the Write Way

by Emily Morgan, University of Miami-Florida
Writing is a form of expression that has become a difficult task for members of the student scientific community. This is not a remark on the basic skill set for a meteorology student, but rather a result of neglect. A huge part of the academic field focuses more on computer-aided analysis, modeling, computation and processes that can very readily led themselves to good writing but often don’t, perhaps because it’s so much more convenient to move on to the next task without explaining the first.
I’ve often wished the science courses I’ve participated in included an increased focus on written analysis of topics, even just simple written forecast discussions or responses to research results, so that we become more familiar with expressing ourselves concisely and fully to a broad audience. It boils down to trying to communicate through a medium that cannot rely on facial expressions and you-know-what-I-mean’s. There is no “question and answer” session after the essay, aside from disgruntled and confused e-mails from readers, and the writer cannot instantly respond to the blank faces of his readers. So the readers, not able to grasp the main theme of the writing, leave the writer without an audience for his point. A terrible fate this is, as writing in science has vital purpose: to convey important research findings, to apply for funding to allow research to flourish, to explain a complex process to students at any level. So why is this form of communication neglected, shunned, even dreaded?
Dr. David Schultz, presenting “Practical Advice for Students and Scientists,” addressed some of my concerns. His seminar focused on commanding, concise titles and effective abstract writing, his mindset being that these are components of a paper that are the most relevant to the reader, who should be the main focus of the paper. His fourth and final rule of writing was “We write for our audience, not for ourselves,” something he reiterated throughout the seminar. He presented a relationship between an effective writing process and an effective forecasting process, where both benefit from a constant narrowing in focus from broad scale ideas to microscale changes. Active writing, rather than passive writing, he claims, is a much more effective way to write. Not all in attendance were comfortable with these ideas, claiming that they’ve always been told to use the passive voice and including anything in first person is seen as unprofessional. One individual was in awe that Dr. Schultz would even suggest replacing the phrase “it was suggested that” with the phrase “I think.” I believe that it is this mindset that continues the difficulty of embracing scientific writing and it was very inspiring to see someone who was intent on easing people out of these bad habits.
Finally, in what I believed was his most important point, he urged the room to “treat all your writing as if it counted.” So it was wonderful to hear this from Dr. Schultz as a reassurance to a sometimes-bewildered writer. Writing can be an intimidating affair, even with the right skills, so to bolster one’s confidence with the thought that this writing does, in fact, matter can be the difference between long, wishy-washy reports and strong, concise writing.
Editor’s note: David Schultz is conducting a workshop, “Eloquent Professional Communication,”  Tuesday, 1:30 pm-3 pm, WSCC 3B. He is also presenting “Best Resources for Communication Skills for Scientists” at the Atmospheric Science Librarians International session, 8:45-9:45 am Wednesday, WSCC 304.

WeatherFest Wows Seattle

More than 4,ooo people converged on the convention center yesterday for WeatherFest 2011.  The tenth year of the interactive science and weather fair kicked off with a festive ribbon cutting.

Par for the course, kids were an eager and active presence, crowding the exhibits that featured games and hands-on demonstrations.

With almost sixty exhibits, the weather extravaganza provided numerous ways of finding fun in science education. More WeatherFest videos are posted on our Ametsoc YouTube channel.

A Passion for Mentoring

by Emily Morgan, University of Miami-Florida
Saturday afternoon, I literally almost bumped into Kenneth Carey, who quickly introduced himself as one of the AMS Beacons. He followed my fellow students and me up to our next seminar in the Student Conference. He was very charismatic, very animated, and quite welcoming to a first-time student. Within the first few minutes, he launched into his passion for mentoring and both what it means to him and what effects he has seen it have on others. It was very interesting to hear him laud this communal support separate from any one organization; it really made his argument sincere.
Presenting on “Success in the Job Market,” Mr. Carey welcomed students with a display of many opportunities, urging them to be resourceful and keep their eyes open for opportunities in both federal and private sectors. The most interesting part of his presentation was his list of “10 Skills to Succeed.” All were sound points:

10. Pursuit of excellence.
9. Persistence.
8. Ability to work with others.
7. Innovation.
6. Decision-making.
5. Ability to get things done.
4. Networking.
3. Balance, relaxation.
2. Writing.
1. Public speaking.

Mr. Carey provided much advice for honing these skills, but following this slide, he spoke again about mentoring, whether being a mentor or the mentored. Because of his passion or his persistence, I was sincerely moved by his presentation. It seemed that his only goal was to benefit the meteorological community by encouraging its members to occasionally think of the whole, rather than its parts. Often we can get lost in our own goals and forget that the student beside you has them as well. More so than improving on decision-making (Point 6) and persistence (Point 9), I have become convinced that sharing and working together with my colleagues (Point  8!) will bring me success.

Special Session Today on the 2010 Icelandic Volcano Eruptions

Iceland's eruptions, 2010: Getting close safely for measurements was one of the problems with observing the initial eruption conditions that affect plume dispersion modeling.

The Eyjafjallajökull volcano eruption in Iceland lasted from the 15 April to 25 May 2010.  In addition to threatening local people and their livestock, the volcano sent an ash plume to heights of up to 26,000 feet. Due to the weather conditions, the plume spread over a large part of Europe. Because volcanic ash can cause airplane engines to fail, the plume disrupted aviation over several weeks.
Weather Services played a key role in  predicting the spread of the ash and advising the aviation industry. The forecasts were based on safety thresholds for flying through volcanic ash set by the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO) along with the national aviation authorities and aircraft manufacturers.
Scientists modelled the evolution of the ash cloud using dispersion  models and trajectory models. The model predictions were compared with  observations from satellites, aircraft and ground-based networks.
Supplemental ash concentration information from the UK Met Office

The eruption of Eyjafjallajökull presented challenges to the meteorological community, especially in Europe.  The event highlighted the importance of enhanced international coordination to ensure a consistency of approach in the observation, forecasting and dissemination of volcanic ash information and warnings.
At the AMS annual meeting, papers covering the observing, forecasting and warning to the public and especially to the airline industry regarding the effects of the eruption of Eyjafjallajökull will be presented today (Monday) at the Special International Applications Session 1B: The Eyjafjallajökull Volcanic Eruption of 2010 (1:30 pm). At 2 pm Ian Lisk of the UK Met Office talks about how the aviation industry, grounded by safety rules, put pressure on meteorologists to produce ash concentration charts to supplement the normal information from the Volcanic Ash Advisory Centre in the UK. This was an added burden on dispersion modeling services (with the NAME model), but the results proved promising:

The largest uncertainty in the computer modelling of ash dispersion and transport is the ability to accurately reflect the status of the eruption at model initialization. This is less of a modelling issue and much more a case of being able to accurately and safely observe what the volcano is doing in real time, in particular, the:
•Height, diameter and time variance of eruptive column;
•Assessment of ash concentration and particle size/distribution;
•Ash deposition close to the volcano i.e. ash that is not available to be transported.

Unlike atmospheric phenomena, volcanic eruptions are in fixed places and don’t condense or disappear out of thin air, like atmospheric phenomena…but apparently observing them isn’t much easier.