This week NOAA announced installation of four new special observatories in California dedicated to improving the understanding–and forecasting–of atmospheric rivers, the massive (but narrow) flows of tropical moisture aloft in the warm conveyor belt of air ahead of cold fronts.
The timing of the announcement could not have been better. Ocean-fed storms with the distinctive filaments of tropospheric moisture brought heavy rains to California and Oregon this past week. Lake levels in northern California surged by as much as 34 feet; rush hour in major cities like San Francisco were bedeviled with flooded streets and bridges blocked by overturned vehicles due to the high winds carrying blinding sheets of rain.
The timing was not just good from a weather point of view but also from the standpoint of public understanding. The announcement culminated the fast-track rise of “atmospheric river” from an obscure technical term to popular understanding. In anticipation of the weekend deluge (and the lesser encore Wednesday), media outlets from Oregon to Minnesota to Australia picked up the vibe and were talking about atmospheric rivers–and not just by the more time-honored and familiar regional name, “Pineapple Express.”
It was only 20 years ago the term “atmospheric river” was introduced in a scientific paper by Reginald Newell and colleagues; then atmospheric rivers got a brief spate of publicity during the late 1990s and early part of this century with airborne field projects over the Pacific Ocean, such as CALJET and PACJET. Attention ramped up again during 2010’s infamous Snowmaggedon on the East Coast.
So it goes with atmospheric sciences, where the prospect of applications can drive quick adoption of useful concepts: useful not just in forecasting but also in climatology. For example, at the upcoming AMS Annual Meeting, Tianyu Jiang of Georgia Tech will look at different resolutions of general circulation models to see how well they depict these detailed structures (as little as 25 miles wide) and linkages with East Asian Cold outbreaks in a Tuesday poster session (9:45 a.m., Exhibit Hall 3). In a Monday poster (2:30 p.m., Exhibit Hall 3) Nyssa Perryman of Desert Research Institute will explore how downscaling from a global climate model to an embedded regional climate model can affect the simulation of atmospheric rivers.
The importance of this relatively new concept is such that the AMS Education Program devoted several sections to atmospheric rivers and how they transport water vapor from the tropics in its newest edition of the AMS Weather Studies textbook. Released in August 2012 by the AMS Education Program, the book is currently being used by thousands of college students nationwide as an introduction to meteorology. A QR code was embedded in the text to provide readers with access to the most current forecast information and video loops available on the subject.
For more on atmospheric rivers, check out Ralph and Dettinger’s article in the June 2012 BAMS on the relative importance of atmospheric rivers in U.S. precipitation. Marty Ralph discusses the article in this AMS YouTube Channel video:
Policy Symposium Keynote to Focus on Tree-Climate Connnections
by Caitlin Buzzas, AMS Policy Program
The keynote speaker for the 8th Symposium on Policy and Socio-Economic research at the AMS Annual Meeting in January will be author and journalist Jim Robbins. The Montana-based science writer for the New York Times just wrote a book on the connection between trees, forests and our atmosphere, The Man Who Planted Trees: Lost Groves, Champion Trees, and an Urgent Plan to Save the Planet.
Robbins’ talk for our meeting (Monday,7 January, 11 a.m., Room 19a) is going to span many different aspects of our annual meeting including public health, climate, and weather. The topic, “The Few Things We Know and the Many Things We Don’t about the Role of Trees and Forests on a Warmer Planet,” could be of interest to just about every topic the symposiums cover.
If you want a preview, check out his TED talk on YouTube, where Robbins’ commitment to the science of trees in climate is explained:
They say that everyone must have a child, write a book and plant a tree before they die. But for the writer and freelance journalist of the New York Times, Jim Robbins, if we just do the last part, we’d already be off to a great start. The author of “The man who planted trees” tells how he became a rooted defender when he observed the devastation of the old growth pine trees on his property in Colorado because of climate change. For him, science still hasn’t studied deep enough about these beings that filer air, stop floods, recover desert areas, purify water, block UV rays and are the basis of medicines as well as decorate the view. Much beyond shade and fresh water.
The 2013 AMS Annual Meeting actually goes a long ways toward fulfilling Robbins’ vision of discovering more about trees in our climate, with dozens of related presentations. At Monday’s poster session (2:30 p.m., Exhibit Hall 3), for example, Juliane Fry is presenting lab findings that may eventually refine regional climate mitigation policies that rely on tree plantings to produce cooling secondary aerosols. Also, as victims of fire disasters, forests feature prominently in the Weather Impacts of 2012 sessions (Tuesday, 8 January, Ballroom E). Similarly, on Wednesday (2:30 p.m., Exhibit Hall 3) Anthony Bedel will present a poster on the connection between changing climate and increasing potential for forest fires in the the Southeast, due to thriving fire fuels.
Young scientists are also following this line of work: Sunday’s Student Conference posters (5:30 p.m., Exhibit Hall 3) include a presentation by Zeyuan Chen of Stony Brook on understanding airflow in a cherry grove to better help orchard managers save their trees from bark beetles. Another student, Meredith Dahlstrom of Metropolitan State University in Colorado, presents in the same session on interannual and decadal climate mechanisms related to fluctuations in the prodigious capacities for carbon storage in the Brazilian rainforests.
Spotlight on Early Career Professionals
If you haven’t noticed, a lot of AMS members are just starting out in the atmospheric sciences, making their way to success in a field that is full of continually evolving–and often little-known–prospects for advancement. Now is a good time, however, for those early career professionals trying to learn more about what’s ahead and meet the colleagues they’ll be encountering in coming years: AMS is providing new opportunities for them to get to know more about each other and their common futures.
The November issue of BAMS features an interview with KMGH, Denver, Colorado, weekend meteorologist Maureen McCann, part of our ongoing series of features about young people in the atmospheric sciences community. Maureen has a lot to share about getting started in the field. For example:
On advice she would give to an early career professional starting in this field: The best advice would be take whatever comes your way for your first job. Your first job is key to fine tuning your skills and becoming familiar with the nuts and bolts of television news. Keep in mind that it’s temporary and you will use this experience to move onto the next job, if that’s what you desire. Small market life has a lot of benefits! I look back on my time in my first market, Bangor, Maine, with great memories. The friendships I made there were with people in the same boat as myself: fresh out of college looking to get their career started.
Another point of advice is to always keep your resume current. You never know when opportunities will present themselves. I aim to update my demo reel every six months. I probably would have missed out of the Denver opportunity if I didn’t have an updated reel online for the news director.
On who she seeks advice from and why: I’d have to say the broadcast community as a whole. Social networking has revolutionized how meteorologists can exchange information or gather feedback. There are some message groups on Facebook that serve as an excellent forum for this dialogue. Whether you have a question about graphics, or forecast models, or you’re looking for input on a prospective job location, chances are someone else has the same question too. It’s a great resource to poke through daily and see what the discussion topics are. It’s also a good way to make connections beyond traditional ways like conferences.
For the full interview, see the November issue of BAMS and look for similar features in the future thanks to your new AMS Board on Early Career Professionals.
Another opportunity to get to know early career professionals is coming up at the Annual Meeting in Austin, with the First Conference for Early Career Professionals on Sunday, 6 January 2013. Early- to mid-career professionals will offer guidance and hold open discussions to solicit input on how the AMS can further benefit members who are beginning their careers in the atmospheric sciences. That evening, attendees and all other Annual Meeting participants are invited to attend the third annual AMS Reception for Early Career Professionals.
If you have advice for early career professionals or would like to nominate an early career professional to be featured in BAMS, the Board for Early Career Professionals would love to hear from you. You can contact Andrew Molthan, current chair of the AMS Board for Early Career Professionals, at [email protected].
William Gail Wins AMS Presidential Election
The AMS announced this week that William B. Gail is the new AMS president-elect and will take over as the Society’s president in January of 2014.
Gail is cofounder and chief technology officer of Global Weather Corporation (GWC), a Boulder, Colorado, company that provides precision forecasts to businesses serving weather-sensitive sectors, such as wind energy, transportation, and media. He founded GWC to broaden the public benefit from next-generation forecast technologies being created in universities and national labs. Prior to founding GWC, he was a director at Microsoft, where he was responsible for software innovation such as consumer mobile and 3D weather visualization.
Recently, Gail has been a leader in the call for a U.S. Weather Commission, which would utilize the weather expertise of the meteorological community to advise federal policymakers on forecasting and making the country more weather-ready. He contributed to the NAS/NRC report “Weather Services for the Nation: Becoming Second to None,” and he was a member of a panel that recently spoke to Congress about this topic; he can be seen in this video of the panel, beginning at the 13:15 mark. (The U.S. Weather Commission will be the focus of a Town Hall Meeting at the upcoming AMS Annual Meeting in Austin.)
Newly elected AMS Councilors for 2012 were also announced: Stephen F. Corfidi of the Storm Prediction Center, Sonia Kreidenweis of Colorado State University, Frank D. Marks of the Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorology Laboratories, Yvette P. Richardson of The Pennsylvania State University, and Elizabeth A. Ritchie of the University of Arizona.
Barack, Mitt . . . and Sandy
In the modern era of presidential campaigns, even with candidates’ every last word and action carefully scripted, there can still be surprises. This year, that surprise came in the form of an interloper named Sandy, a blustery blowhard whose campaign stormed up the East Coast and made bombastic statements all along the way, treating red and blue states with equal disrespect. In the process, Sandy emphatically impacted the race for the presidency. First, she forced both President Obama and Mitt Romney to alter their campaigns while she commanded the attention of most of the Atlantic seaboard. They both had to step away from key battleground states, as the president canceled campaign stops in Florida and Wisconsin and Romney called off events in New Hampshire, Iowa, Ohio, and Wisconsin. The negative rhetoric between the two candidates was toned down while both focused their attention on the storm and its victims.
Sandy also caused the cancellation (and subsequent extension) of early-voting days and interrupted training of polling officials in some states, and her impact on voting day may be considerable even though her whirlwind tour is over. One potential effect could be that fewer voters will be able to get to the polls in hard-hit portions of the Northeast and mid-Atlantic, either due to transportation issues, damage to polling venues, power outages, or other hardships. This probably won’t change the election’s outcome, as Obama has a safe lead in most of the affected states. However, his popular vote might be adversely impacted, and thus accentuating the significance of the electoral college. Additionally, polling and media coverage of the campaign has been cut back. Some organizations have temporarily suspended their polling, and with the news media tabbing Sandy as the new “it girl,” the presidential candidates were sent to the fourth estate’s back burner, at least for a few days, as notedby media reporter Howard Kurtz:
Still, the greatest impact may be on public attention. Go to any news website or flip on any cable news channel, and Sandy is the dominant story by far. No one is talking about tax cuts or unemployment or immigration. Television has a tendency to overhype major storms, but given the breadth and destructive power of Sandy, the saturation coverage seems to match its magnitude.
It’s also worth considering what effect Sandy will have on voters’ thoughts about climate and where the two candidates stand on climate change. New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg cited Sandy in particular and climate change in general in his endorsement of Obama:
The devastation that Hurricane Sandy brought to New York City and much of the Northeast—in lost lives, lost homes and lost business—brought the stakes of Tuesday’s presidential election into sharp relief. . . .
Our climate is changing. And while the increase in extreme weather we have experienced in New York City and around the world may or may not be the result of it, the risk that it might be—given this week’s devastation—should compel all elected leaders to take immediate action. . . .
When I step into the voting booth, I think about the world I want to leave my two daughters, and the values that are required to guide us there. The two parties’ nominees for president offer different visions of where they want to lead America. . . .
One sees climate change as an urgent problem that threatens our planet; one does not. I want our president to place scientific evidence and risk management above electoral politics.
If many other voters share Bloomberg’s perspective that immediate action on climate change is necessary and the President is more likely to take that action, then Barack and Mitt may come to see Sandy as the October surprise that decided the election.
Planning for the Next Superstorm: Kids Will Lead the Way
by Ellen Klicka, AMS Policy Program
Superstorm Sandy was a reminder that the best time for severe weather preparedness is before hazards strike. Unfortunately, it also made clear that many people still lack sufficient know-how to take measures against potential loss of life and property from natural hazards.
Where to get that know-how? From their kids!
At least, that’s the solution developed in a new online gaming initiative—the Young Meteorologist Program (YMP)—launched during the height of this week’s storm. Children can be passionate about issues that concern them and can be effective at mobilizing the whole family and ultimately the community. Thus YMP stands out from other preparedness initiatives by recognizing children as the gateway to educating families, neighbors, and friends.
YMP is an educational collaboration between the AMS Policy Program, PLAN!T NOW (a non-profit organization that assists communities at risk of disasters), the National Weather Service, and, eventually, children across the nation. PLAN!T NOW asked AMS to help create this free online resource and computer game about severe-weather science and safety. In 2010, AMS Policy Program staff connected PLAN!T NOW to disaster preparedness and response leaders.
NOAA contributed considerable knowledge and support for the Young Meteorologist Program and other PLAN!T NOW initiatives. The AMS Policy Program and NOAA advised PLAN!T NOW on such topics as storm classification, tornado development, flooding and storm surges. The National Education Association also assisted to ensure the educational quality of the program. The diverse team of experts involved in YMP includes educators, scientists, entertainers and software developers, all working towards the common goal of creating disaster resilient communities across America.
The joint effort culminated in YMP’s public launch on October 29, as the Eastern seaboard began to feel Sandy’s impact. The AMS Education Program has assisted in promoting the program’s availability by reaching out to its network of K-12 science teachers. YMP will be a part of classrooms, museums, libraries, major city expos and events all over the country, reaching tens of thousands of children and adults.
YMP also brings Owlie Skywarn – a trademarked character of NOAA, revised and updated by PLAN!T NOW – into the 21st century by making him a central character in an interactive environment online—no longer limited to printed brochures. YMP game designers began with educational material from a NOAA booklet featuring Owlie; he and a host of other animated characters help each child become a junior data collector for the game’s “Weather Center.” Game modules cover hurricanes, lightning, floods, tornadoes, and winter storms. Each game is created in full, interactive animation.
Students who complete the online program earn a Young Meteorologist Certificate. Empowered by this recognition of their knowledge and effort, they are more likely to encourage parents and others to make assemble disaster kits, write emergency plans, and overall make preparedness a priority. The kids are invited to put their new knowledge to work through hands-on activities and community service projects highlighted on the program’s website. Resources for educators, parents and meteorologists to give further guidance to the Young Meteorologists are also available there.
Attendees at the upcoming AMS Annual Meeting in Austin, Texas, can learn more about YMP from the expert’s perspective–NOAA’s Ron Gird and colleagues will present a poster at the Education Symposium (2:30-4 p.m.; 7 January 2013). Dan Pisut of NOAA’s Visualization Lab spoke to the AMS Broadcast Conference about YMP this past August, and that presentation can be heard on our meetings archive.
Future versions of YMP may include new modules on fires and tsunamis, in addition to the five modules in the current game. Other scientific disciplines, such as oceanography and climatology could serve as the basis for programs similar to YMP down the road.
Prepared communities start with prepared households. AMS and its partners are recognizing that those households might become prepared because of knowledgeable children.
Wild Weather Comes to NCAR
A new exhibit exploring the power of weather and the stories behind it opened earlier this month at NCAR’s Mesa Lab in Boulder, Colorado. Spark, the group that oversees science education at UCAR, created the exhibit with input from scientists, engineers, designers, and writers.
“Weather is a fascinating topic and it affects us all,” comments Rajul Pandya, director of Spark. “In the new Weather Gallery, visitors can touch clouds, make forecasts, and learn how scientists understand weather using special instruments and computer simulations.”
The NCAR Weather Gallery joins existing exhibits like an eight-foot-tall tornado, a microburst generation tank, and a display that shows current wind speeds measured on top of the building. One of the new features is the interactive, “Tell Your Weather Story,” which gives visitors the opportunity to describe and post their own experiences on weather.
It took about 20 months to plan and develop the exhibit from start to finish. To begin the process, an advisory committee met to decide what topics the exhibit should cover and what they wanted visitors to experience. They came up with a plan that included five content sections and several different ways of delivering information, which included hands-on interactives, large mural photos, panels with pictures and text, and touch screens with games and videos.
Since the exhibit opened on 10 October, the Mesa Lab has had approximately 2,000 visitors, with at least half that number spending time in the exhibits. About 15,000 people a year attend scheduled programs at lab, including 10,000 K-12 students and teachers who take classes and go on tours, as well as 5,000 in special groups and public tours.
“People are really excited about the new exhibit. Visitors love all of the opportunities to play with the hands-on stuff, and it’s been fun to see groups of visitors interacting with each other as they explore different parts of the exhibit,” says Becca Hatheway, NCAR exhibit manager. “UCAR and NCAR staff members are also excited to see something new in this space. I’ve seen just as many staff spending time in the exhibits as I have seen visitors. So I guess we’re all excited to learn more about the weather.” The visitor center at the Mesa Lab is open to the public year round and offers free exhibits about weather and climate, a gallery featuring local artists, an outdoor weather trails, and more. For more information visit the Spark web site.
And speaking of Spark, today (Saturday, 27 October) is UCAR’s Super Science Saturday from 10 a.m. to 4 p.m.–a chance for the whole family to visit the labs and combine science with some Halloween fun. There’s a preview video at the Spark home page:
A Chat with the Iceman
By Maureen Moses, AMS Education Program
I hope you all had a good Earth Science Week last week! The theme was “Careers in the Earth Sciences,” and the AMS Education Program participated in a twitter chat with NASA Polar Scientist Thorsten Markus, who admits that as a high schooler in Germany science wasn’t his passion, but becoming a musician was. Now head of NASA Goddard’s Cryospheric Science Lab, Dr. Markus makes measurements of ice thickness in Antarctica.
Chat participants included a whole classroom full of eighth graders. Dr. Markus had plenty of advice on how a future polar scientist with an adventuresome streak can make a splash in a cool field! Here are some of the questions he fielded–edited and excerpted from the full chat archived on Twitter:
I’m here with 25 8th grade Earth Science students and one student would like to know what the day to day duties are as a polar scientist.
It’s extremely playful — playing with lots and lots of satellite data and learning something new every day.
Do you get to travel to cool places or are you processing data in an office?
Oh man, yes. I used to go to the Arctic and Antarctic and also flew over them in helicopters and planes.
What was your favorite experience in the field as a scientist?
Seeing the penguins coming out of the water and then standing right next to us. Fantastic!
When you decided becoming a rock star might not happen, why did you choose physics over math for a major?
Physics is pretty much applied Math — you deal with everyday problems… and actually learn how to solve some.
Which class helped you the most to get where you are today?
Maybe Math, but the arts fostered my creativity, for thinking outside the box
What level math did you have to go to? (for the future polar scientists out there). THX for the response!
I have a Ph.D. in physics, which involves a lot of math — but there’s also chemistry, biology and geography.
What is the difference between glacier ice data and sea ice data… Do they tell different stories?
Very different. Glacier ice is fresh water from mountains or ice sheets whereas sea ice is frozen ocean.
Are they affected differently by climate change?
Glaciers are balanced by snowfall and temperature, while with sea ice, also ocean properties play a big role.
So sea ice is inherently more volatile/variable?
I’d like to say sea ice is more complex, but then the ice sheet people might get angry 😉
What is/will be the impact of disappearing ice sheet on the global climate?
Melting of the ice sheets will increase sea level and affect ocean circulation because of the fresh water influx.
When can we expect to see Antartica’s ice retreating because of climate change. If it keeps stable or increasing, what can be made of that?
The Arctic and Antarctica are two different systems and global warming does not mean it warms uniformly everywhere.
What do you say to people who claim there’s a “debate” about climate change?
I don’t think there’s a “debate” about whether there’s climate change. The debate is by how much we’re responsible for it.
How good are the current models in predicting Arctic and Antarctic ice response to the climate warming?
I think the models are remarkable — certainly not perfect, but what prediction is perfect?
What climate data scares you the most (has the greatest implication for scary future events)?
The global ocean circulation, because it shows that things we do to the Chesapeake Bay may affect far away places.
Does any of the research you do tell us anything about other sheets of ice in cosmos?
As a matter of fact, I was involved in research about the Jupiter icy moons. So yes, there are analogies.
Who do you regard as your inspiration?
It was Keith Richards, now it’s the balance of the earth system… isn’t it remarkable how it all works together?
Help Us Get Dressed for Success in Austin
What comes to mind when you think about the AMS? Can you express it with an interesting and eye-catching graphic?
If so, then we have a contest for you: the Society is looking for a member to create an original design for a tee-shirt that represents the mission of the AMS. The winning shirt will be sold at the upcoming Annual Meeting in Austin, and the designer of the chosen shirt will receive free registration to that meeting. And as an added bonus, it’s all for a good cause: proceeds from sales of the shirts will be donated to the AMS Student Travel Grant fund, which helps senior undergraduate and graduate students attend AMS meetings.
The deadline is November 9, so it’s time to start thinking creatively, and then send your idea to [email protected]. The complete rules for the contest can be found here.
These Observations Get Our Stamp of Approval
The scientific benefits of Earth observation are well known in the atmospheric sciences. But there’s an artistic side to such observations, too, which is spectacularly depicted in the U.S. Postal Service’s new Earthscapes stamps, released last week in celebration of National Stamp Collecting Month and featuring images shot aloft from a variety of platforms, from a micro-light kite to satellites in space.
The set of 15 different stamps depicts natural, agricultural, and urban scenes from across the country. The Service’s contracted photo editors and researchers culled hundreds of images, which USPS Art Director Howard Paine narrowed down to the final 15. Some photos were taken by people in private planes and helicopters; others were taken by unmanned instruments, including the one below of the volcanic crater of Mount St. Helens in Washington, which was captured in 1999 by NASA’s Landsat 7. Other images in the set include ice breaking off from Alaska’s Bear Glacier, a cherry orchard in Wisconsin, and a cranberry bog in Massachusetts.
Along with the forever stamps, other Earthscapes collectibles for the philatelist include a first-day cover set, a jigsaw puzzle, and an Earthscapes ceremony program.
