Jeff

Suomi Now Smiles Down Upon Us

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NASA and NOAA announced today at the AMS Annual Meeting in New Orleans that they have renamed the recently launched polar orbiter, NPOESS preparatory project, the Suomi NPP, after the late Verner Suomi, who was one of the pioneers in creating instruments for satellite observations of the weather. AMS annually gives out a prestigious Verner Suomi Award for technological achievement–this year’s winner is Anne Thompson.
“Verner Suomi’s many scientific and engineering contributions were fundamental to our current ability to learn about Earth’s weather and climate from space,” says John Grunsfeld, associate administrator of NASA’s Science Mission Directorate. “Suomi NPP not only will extend more than four decades of NASA satellite observations of our planet, it also will usher in a new era of climate-change discovery and weather forecasting.”
Suomi, who died in 1995 at the age of 79, spent nearly his entire career at Univ. of Wisconsin. He is legendary for developing the spin-scan camera, which allowed satellites in stationary orbit of one point on Earth to maintain continuous focus and enable, among other capabilities, the instant-replay-style weather images we watch on television.
In 1968 he won the AMS’s highest award, the Rossby Medal

for his imagination, ingenuity, and versatility in conceiving and designing diverse meteorological sensors which have helped to transform the satellite as a meteorological probe from a dream to a reality. His Spin-Scan camera has given us our most comprehensive views of the atmosphere as an entity, and has already led to revised ideas concerning the circulation in lower latitudes.

and in 1977, he received the National Medal of Science — one of many awards — though his son Eric Suomi expects his father would have been particularly appreciative of Suomi NPP’s mission and new name.
The University of Wisconsin gathered comments on the name change:

“I think this is an excellent match,” says Eric Suomi, an electrical engineer who lives in Madison. “Had my father still been around, he would have been pushing for more of the kind of instruments on this satellite and the observations they’ll be making of our planet.”
“Vern flew the first experiment to look at the Earth from space on Explorer 7,” says Hank Revercomb, a Suomi collaborator and director of UW-Madison’sSpace Science and Engineering Center, which Suomi helped establish in 1965. “That was a radiation budget experiment, and there is actually a similar experiment, an instrument called ‘CERES,’ on the spacecraft they’ve named for him.”
Suomi NPP will also add to long-term climate records, monitor the health of the ozone layer, measure global ice cover and air pollution levels, map vegetation and — with the help of a sounder, an instrument conceived by Suomi and refined by Revercomb — contribute to better weather forecasts with sharper data on cloud cover, wind, temperature and atmospheric moisture.
“This satellite is designed to study the atmosphere and improve our understanding of how and why changes make a difference in our weather and climate,” Univ of Wisconsin Professor Steve Ackerman says. “Those were Day One objectives of Verner’s from the 1950s.”

 
 

The Good Meteorologist: CCM Forum Wednesday

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Are you good at what you do? Of course, you are…but are you good in what you do?
All professions ultimately uphold specific ethical standards–guidelines for being good in a moral sense. In some cases these are established by laws enacted in the interest of the public that relies on these professionals. Meteorology may not be as heavily regulated as some professions, but it still is subject to laws and government regulation, especially to the extent that researchers spend government dollars, or professionals engage in business or work for governmental agencies.
Oddly enough, however, obeying the standards of a profession are not always equivalent to simply behaving well in the usual sense of being good. Our lives in private or personal matters are governed by a different code of conduct than our lives as professionals. Or so insist ethics experts. According to Albert Flores, Philosophy Professor at California State Univ.–Fullerton,

to suppose that there must be absolute consistency between private and public actions does violence to the very point of drawing the distinction in the first place.

Flores cites, for example, the difference the lengths to which a lawyer must go, ethically, to defend a client and the way the same lawyer would behave in disputes in private life. And it is ok for a police officer to deceive a suspect under investigation but not ok to employ deception in dealing with friends.  It’s also ok in private life to promise to do something that you don’t yet know how to do, but not ok as a scientific consultant to portray yourself as capable of things you aren’t yet competent in doing. As a result of contradictions like this, you can’t count on your well-ingrained sense of right and wrong to guide you through every ethical dilemma as a meteorologist, whether in private practice, in government, or in academia. And because laws and codes are involved, you may not even realize what sort of decision could get you in legal trouble as a professional. There’s a lot to know.
To help you navigate the rights and wrongs of meteorology, the CCM Forum at this Annual Meeting is devoting its Wednesday discussions to professional ethics. At 10:30 a.m. (Room 245) Bernard Meisner CCM “will review some of the most common situations faced by NWS consulting meteorologists” in his presentation, “Ethical Practice for National Weather Service Consulting Meteorologists”
At 1:30 p.m., Jerry Hill, CCM, will moderate a panel discussion of “Contemporary Ethics Problems Facing Meteorology Community.” Among the panelists will be Univ. of New Mexico Regents Professor Law, Marsha Baum, who is a scholar of the intersection of meteorology and the legal system, and is the featured speaker at the CCM Town Hall (12:15-1:15 p.m., Room 239). Prof. Baum teaches a course on “Weather in U.S. Law and Society” and has titled her keynote speech, “Is It Law or is it Ethics.”

Everybody Talks about the Weather–but Not All the Time

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Installation of dual-polarization radar at the Sacramento, California, office of the National Weather Service prompted a local paper to publish a detailed profile of forecast operations there. The web version we linked includes a short video interview with meteorologist Kathy Hoxsie explaining the advantages of the new observing technology.
Dual-pol of course is a major topic here at the Annual Meeting in New Orleans. Many attendees are getting a chance to hear the latest updates on the installation of the technology, including tomorrow (Tuesday, 11 a.m., Room 357) when Timothy Crum of NOAA/NEXRAD operations gives a “30,000 foot view” of the upgrade process.
One thing that caught our eye in the article was a telling comment Hoxsie made about the public’s interest in weather, when a

storm – which was producing a light drizzle Friday morning – had moved in Thursday, ending what had been a spike in weather interest by the public.
Counter-intuitively, people are interested when weather isn’t doing what it is expected to do, Hoxsie said. So the arrival of rain – a normal occurrence throughout the winter – didn’t mean more questions from the public.
“We get almost as many calls when there is no weather,” Hoxsie said. “People want to know if there is a drought, when the next storm is coming, when will the sunny weather end? The interest actually lessens a bit because the weather is doing what everyone’s expecting it to do.”

(Even if the public takes an occasional break from talking about the weather, surely this week of all weeks we can go nonstop, so here goes:) Doesn’t this effect depend on how menacing a rain might be? One would think a heavy rain might prompt a spike of interest in flood risks, or simply questions about when the rain would end. But the counterintuitive effect Hoxsie mentioned is a reminder that our relationship with weather is more nuanced than we might think.
So, at the same time as the presentation on dual pol radar (but in Room 243), you’ll find clear evidence of that subtlety thanks to David Perkins IV, who cuts through preconceptions about how weather determines people’s zoo attendance.

Social forces are admittedly the strengths of attendance prediction; however, the subtle differences in a zoo’s weather vulnerability—whether it is related to city proximity, spatial layout, surrounding demography, or climate of the location—are factors that underlie the scholarship of how weather and weather perception both affect zoo attendance.

The next paper in that session is by Kevin Simmons and Daniel Sutter, two social science researchers who also refuse to take this relationship for granted. We’re particularly interested to know what their cold-eyed data show about the effect TV meteorologists actually have on saving lives during tornadoes.
 

You've Got a Flare for Science

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Last night while you were out partying on Bourbon Street, the Sun was at work. According to NOAA, our home star produced an R2 (Moderate) radio blackout x-ray burst–call it a flare–accompanied by potentially the fastest Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) of the current solar cycle.
The flare was observed at 11 p.m. EST and radiation reached us an hour later. As of 6 a.m. local New Orleans time, radiation was already considered “strong” (S3). Initial model guidance showed the CME arriving around 9:00 am EST on Tuesday. NOAA space weather forecasters say this will cause the strongest solar radiation storm since December 2006, with potential for electrical grid disruption.
What impacts should you expect? (Hopefully, no more wireless outages in the Convention Center here in New Orleans!)
Seriously though, the best thing to do for your edification is to get over to the Space Weather Symposium this afternoon at the AMS Annual Meeting. Today’s session (4 p.m.-5:45 p.m., Room 252/3 include talks on impacts of space weather on aviation, networking, navigation, electricity transmission and more. And given our focus on futurism, consider this space weather question raised by presenter Karen Shelton-Mur (of the FAA):

Once low-Earth orbit (LEO) capabilities are demonstrated by commercial companies, it is anticipated that LEO flights will be expanded to include space flight participants (private citizens). The expansion of commercial space activities into LEO will expose more humans to the harsh space environment than ever before. Without proper authority and monitoring of on-orbit activities, how will the FAA ensure safety of the crew, its space flight participants, and safety critical systems on board the spacecraft?

No question, this stuff is “out there” and cool and very sophisticated application of the forward edges of atmospheric science. Today’s solar flare is a reminder that the way we use technology is pushing this community in new directions all the time.

A Taste of (and for) Things to Come

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We’re all in New Orleans for science, but for the sake of technology, let’s indulge in a brief philosophy break.
We all know that the present is shaped by the past. Part of the reason is psychology: people easily recall experiences–indeed, emotions–from the past. We can even empathize with other people’s past experiences through their stories.
But philosophers note a peculiar aspect of this ability to make mental time trips. For all of our empathy for the people of the past, our anticipation of the future is much less “real” to us. Often, even the near-certain knowledge of future difficulties, or outright pain, especially if it involves other people (like our progeny!), is not enough to change our current behavior. Our minds don’t travel well to the future.
Of course, economists can tell you something similar about discounting the future–rationality about future benefits is beyond many of us. Even in our own community, climate scientists are finding that it’s a lot easier explaining to most people what’s happened than talking about what might happen. The future is just not as real as the past.
And yet, dreaming about the future is big business: it sells technology, it sells movies, magazines, books, gadgets, and world expos. Futurism is here to stay. In fact, it will be here all week, starting with Monday’s AMS Presidential Forum, which will give us all a chance to talk and dream about what the future will look like for the atmospheric and related sciences. To help start a dialogue that clearly is fascinating but more difficult to do than one might expect, AMS President Jon Malay and his forum co-chair George Komar have given this year’s plenary session a whole new, interactive style. Here they are to explain:

News from the AMS Council Meeting

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At its meeting this morning, the AMS Council approved its influential Information Statement on Freedom of Scientific Expression for a five-year term. The statement is identical to the one that had been in force and was set to expire soon. The new expiration date is February 2017.
This statement has been welcomed throughout the scientific community as a whole, forming the basis for similar statements by other scientific societies. For example, in 2009 the American Geophysical Union adopted word for word the AMS text for its own Statement on Free and Open Communication of Scientific Findings.
Maintaining this unified position amongst scientific communities facilitates communication to the public about the strongly held values of the profession as a whole.
The AMS and AGU Statements state, for example, that

The ability of scientists to present their findings to the scientific community, policy makers, the media, and the public without censorship, intimidation, or political interference is imperative. In return it is incumbent upon scientists to communicate their findings in ways that portray their results and the results of others, objectively, professionally, and without sensationalizing or politicizing the associated impacts.

It is hard to imagine a statement that could be more apt to the conferences we’re about to launch here in New Orleans.
In other steps related to Statements at its morning meeting, the AMS Council voted to extend the life of the current Information Statement on Climate Change. The expiration date has been extended from 1 February 2012 to 1 September 2012. In addition to maintaining a clear, scientifically sound position on this newsworthy topic, this new step gives the drafting committee for an updated climate change statement more time to respond to detailed feedback from the September 2011 Council meeting.  (See The Front Page post issued yesterday for more about the progress of this committee and of Statements in general.)
Also, this morning the Council encouraged a proposal to update the Statement on Meteorological Drought. However, the Council did not approve the proposal as is, and asked the drafting committee to broaden participation to better include perspectives from the hydrology and water resources communities, and experts from other parts of the world.
 
 

Operation Collaboration a Success: Congrats to Weather Quest Winners!

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Congratulations to everyone who participated in Weather Quest at this year’s AMS Student Conference!
25 + 8 + 9 + 16+  9  + 11+ 16  + (-1)  =  the correct answer of 93
A      U    S      T      I      N     T       X
Anyone who submitted the correct answer was eligible for one of the prizes and their entries were weighted and randomized.
Random drawing winners were Jessica Taheri, Bevan Glynn, Sean Wolinsky, and Elizabeth Zbacnik, who won an assortment of prizes.
Fifth prize went to Branden Spinner, Valparaiso University, and fourth went to Anna Schneider, Penn State University;  both received AMS weather DVDs, a book, and a USB flash drive. Third prize went to  Cassandra Kreckman, Penn State University–she received a Microsoft wireless keyboard/mouse and a book.
Second prize winner Berkely Twiest of Penn State University won a Kindle Fire and a book.
And the First Prize winner–receiving free registration to the 2013 AMS Annual Meeting in Austin, Texas, $50 Amazon gift card, and AMS weather DVDs….Dan Goff, of Virginia Tech!

They've got Austin on their minds: Winners who were present at the conference collect their prizes.

A Statement on Statements: Works in Progress

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Today at its annual January meeting, the AMS Council will hear a report from a committee of expert members on the progress of a new revision to its Information Statement on Climate Change.
To say that the AMS’s current statement on this topic is “oft-cited,” particularly by advocates of strong action to mitigate and adapt to climate change, would be an understatement. It represented the best of climate science when it was adopted in February 2007, and includes such wording as:

strong observational evidence and results from modeling studies indicate that, at least over the last 50 years, human activities are a major contributor to climate change

And

increases in greenhouse gases are nearly certain to produce continued increases in temperature.

But despite the importance of keeping the public up to date on advancing climate science, don’t expect any major decisions in New Orleans. In fact, adoption of the updated Statement isn’t even on the Council’s agenda.
Actually, approval of the update would be forbidden by Council policy that requires a 30-day period to allow comments by members. Back in September, the Councilors ensured this by voting nearly unanimously for various enhancements, simplifications, and clarifications in the draft presented at that time. No new draft has yet been presented, though participants in the process report considerable progress. The Council has the option to extend the term of the Statement currently in force while the drafting committee continues its work.
This slow deliberative style is routine for an organization that has greatly expanded, diversified, and matured scientifically in its 92 years. At last year’s meeting, a proposed revision to the Statement on Mobile Homes and Wind Storms was considered. The Council liked the idea enough to approve a revision, suggesting that the “statement be broadened somewhat.” A year later and, still, the new Statement has not been released, even while deadly tornadoes have dominated the news. In fact, in 2011the Council approved only one statement—about Green Meetings.
At last January’s meeting in Seattle the Council decided to set up a committee to review statements that might need revision. The progress on all of these will be slow and iterative—by design.
“We don’t want to say anything unless it’s something we know,” one Council member said this weekend.
In this sense the standard for approving Statements is even more stringent than it is for accepting articles for the scientific journals. Peer review often at least leaves open the idea that results of a well designed and executed study might be invalidated, at least in part.
There’s no allowance for committees sitting up late burning the midnight oil drafting a perfect text to usher in a decision, either: an AMS Council policy doesn’t allow it. When a Council-appointed committee of members finally hands in a draft that the Council feels is good enough, the Statement is only then ready for the 30-day comment period that precedes the Council’s final review and possible approval.
Meanwhile, drafts more often than not shuttle back and forth between the Council and the drafting committee until the exact wording is settled.
In the case of the Information Statement on Climate Change, the anticipated completion date, initially hoped for 1 February 2012, has long been impossible. But the proof of the process, though slow, has its intended effect. Advancing science may eventually require that statements be updated and revised, but statements generally have a long lifetime in the public eye.
 

Get a Clue! (at the AMS Student Conference)

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Hi AMS Student Conference Attendees,
Hope you’re having a great and productive day! Here’s your clue for the contest:
__ + __ + __ + __ +  __  + __ + __  + __  =  final answer
A      U      S       T       I        N      T       X
1.  Determine how many times each of the letters in ‘AUSTINTX’ appears in the puzzle.  For example, if the letter ‘A’ appears ten (10) times in the puzzle, then write the number 10 above the A. If a letter does not appear in the puzzle then insert a value of -1 above the letter. For example, if the letter ‘A’ appears zero (0) times in the puzzle, then write the number -1 above the A.
2.  Then, solve the equation to arrive at the final answer.
Submit your final answer, along with all required information, to:
https://catalyst.uw.edu/webq/survey/swright/119394
Your answer must be submitted by 9:00am(CST) on Sunday, 22 January 2012.

A Theme for the Week–And Beyond

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Seat back in the upright position, tray table latched, seatbelt tightened, cell phone off. Time to relax and think about something unrelated to work? Nope. In fact it’s time for proof that AMS President Jon Malay picked a great theme for this year’s Annual Meeting .
If you’re flying to New Orleans on United Airlines (yeah, carbon offsets and all), reach into that seat pocket in front of you and pull out Hemispheres magazine and start flipping pages.
You notice right away that there are the usual references to weather: Airline CEO Jeff Smisek greets readers by expressing special kudos to his team (and that means weather forecasters, too) for “overcoming challenges like snowstorms, hailstorms, hurricanes, and the tragic earthquake and tsunami in Japan.” There’s also an article on what to wear in New York winters and an eye-catching full-page ad from Embry Riddle University (find them at the Career Fair Sunday and Monday) touting their research into wind and underwater turbines for generating electricity.
In particular, check out the “Next Big Things,” a profile feature on six people making a difference in technology. A bunch are directly related to atmospheric science:

  • Ren Ng, of Lytro Camera, who engineered a way for better, efficient computing and focusing based on a “powerful miniaturized” light sensor—eliminating blur in hand held pocket cameras.
  • Paul Mascarenas of Ford Motor Company, who’s pushing his technology team to develop wi-fi networks amongst nearby cars in traffic so that they can pass along up-to-the-second observations about road conditions and process better driving strategies.
  • Jennifer Pahlka, of the nonprofit Code for America, which pays its fellows a stipend for a year to develop software in the public interest, including, for example, “an app for Bostonians to identify snow-covered manholes that need to be shoveled out [that] was later adapted by Honolulu to make sure its tsunami sirens were in working order.” Another app is a web-based solar energy potential calculator.

Remote sensing, road weather networks, mobile apps–these are all familiar themes this week as we look back, and ahead, to how technology shapes our community’s work. For more on the theme and how personally Jon takes it, watch his video on the Ametsoc YouTube Channel: