climate change

Real Estate Confronts Climate Change

Buildings on a Boston waterfront, silhouetted against a setting sun. Photo by Kristin Vogt on Pexels: https://www.pexels.com/photo/silhouette-photograph-of-buildings-near-calm-body-of-water-17632/

A 105th Annual Meeting Session Spotlight

By guest author Jacques Gordon, Director, Graaskamp Center for Real Estate, University of Wisconsin-Madison

Editor’s note: The “Panel Discussion in Climate Linked Economics: Navigating Climate Risks and Economic Shifts in Real Estate” takes place today, Monday 13 January, at 4:30 p.m. as part of the New Orleans Forum on Climate Linked Economics at the 105th AMS Annual Meeting.

My apartment in Boston’s Back Bay is just across the Boston Common from the AMS headquarters on Beacon Street.  Yet, when Brock Burghart invited me to speak at the Annual Meeting, I knew very little about the organization—its history, its journals, or its purpose.

In registering for the conference and exploring the AMS website, I reached a number of quick conclusions. 

  • Serious climate scientists and the broader world of weather fanatics all find a home at AMS.
  • The organization is committed to education, research, and networking.
  • I should join.

I have spent the last 40 years working in the field of real estate investment management on behalf of large institutions, like pension plans and sovereign wealth funds. Then, more recently, I joined two universities (MIT and Wisconsin) to help teach the next generation of real estate practitioners. It did not occur to me that the AMS would be a place where I could learn something I wanted to know or contribute something that might be of interest to others. By attending my first meeting, I am hoping to find out if either proposition is true.

My participation is part of the research track entitled “Climate-Linked Economics.”  The panel I will serve on includes a risk management expert from Europe, a data scientist from Utah, and a housing data expert.  

The material I plan to share follows directly from several different experiences that I have had in the investment industry and academia.    

  • Fifteen years ago, I co-founded the climate risk task force at the large investment management firm where I worked. Our goal was to link up the work of our risk management specialists, our portfolio managers, our research teams, and our deal-vetting acquisitions department. After Hurricane Katrina hit New Orleans in 2005, we knew we had to pay attention.
  • Then, when I semi-retired as an “executive in residence” at MIT’s Center for Real Estate, I joined an interdisciplinary seminar with the grand-sounding name “The MIT Joint Program on Global Change.” This group of scientists from the Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Science department also teamed up with economists and social scientists to model the long-term effects of climate change.
  • Finally, I recently moved to the Wisconsin School of Business, to lead its top-ranked real estate program and to make connections with faculty, alumni, and students.  One of my first initiatives was to meet with as many of the alumni of both MIT and Wisconsin in Southern California as I could. We picked Santa Monica as our venue in mid-December of 2024. You can just imagine the dialogue over the past week between our alumni and the owners, developers, and financiers of residential and commercial real estate in this part of the world.

The massive move of American businesses and households to the sunbelt, where higher levels of climate risk are found, along with the increasing cost of insurance, and (most recently) the wildfires sweeping across the LA metro, all shape my views on how real estate and climate change intersect. Here are six take-aways that I plan to share with the AMS membership.

  1. Major weather events are costing property owners, the government, and insurers well over $1 trillion each year in the US. This is roughly equivalent to 4% of the national output of the country. Moreover, this estimate does NOT include the thousands of incidents of smaller (less than $1billion) weather-related damage that occur each year. Nor does it account for the rising cost of insurance—or the loss in a property’s value when insurance coverage is dropped.
  2. Mitigation efforts to reduce the carbon footprint of buildings—both their construction and their operation—are well underway. They vary tremendously—by jurisdiction, by owner and by type of property. In general, serious mitigation is found more frequently in new commercial construction, leaving most of the built environment—both residential and commercial buildings—in catch-up mode.
  3. Adaptation efforts are also well underway. These are vitally important, because climate scientists tell us that even if society could achieve a drastic drop in GHG emissions, more volatile weather is almost certainly already here to stay.  Adaptation efforts can also be expensive and not every owner or jurisdiction will be able to afford them.
  4. In the midst of all this change in the risk profile facing real estate, a data science revolution is going on. There is a gap between the large-scale weather models produced by NOAA and members of the AMS, and the risk analysis needs of the market. Put simply, the need is for micro-analysis of specific locations and different kinds of structures. Data vendors and consulting firms are innovating and putting out new products to meet the demand. Research done by the Urban Land Institute shows how this is a relatively new industry, with many of the unknowns associated with the launch of any forecast model.
  5. Large, well-financed property owners, and many of the world’s largest and wealthiest cities, are already deep into the process of assessing their climate risks and trying to figure out what to do about them. Organizations like the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Federal Reserve are also ramping up their requirements for climate risk disclosures. There is a race going on—to see whether voluntary private sector efforts or government-led regulators are better suited to addressing both mitigation and adaptation challenges.
  6. Whatever side of this public-private divide you fall on, there can be no doubt that climate change raises challenges unlike any experienced in the world before. The temporal and geographic reach of climate risk is unprecedented in the history of humankind. It affects many more realms of human endeavor and the natural world than any prior policy challenge. The built environment is an important place to start tackling these challenges and growing our understanding of what it will take to address mitigation and adaptation simultaneously. Buildings are tangible and right in front of us. We live and work in them every day. We depend on them for leisure, for trade, for culture, and for industry. 

An acknowledgment that real estate is an important part of the climate change puzzle is not without controversy. Some real estate owners say that it’s up to the tenants, not landlords, to change behavior. Transitioning to sustainable energy can compete with other worthy goals—like bringing down the cost of housing or making cities affordable for all kinds of businesses and manufacturing. Some of the most in-demand types of properties—like data centers and life science buildings—consume enormous amounts of energy. And, the developed world still has to reckon with the claims of emerging markets that they should be compensated for their mitigation and adaptation efforts. Yet, as difficult as these problems are, there can be no doubt that real estate construction and operations have to change from “business as usual.” Real estate contributes one third of GHG emissions, globally. In the world’s major cities it contributes close to 70% of all GHG emissions in these metro areas. Alongside other basic economic sectors—including transportation, agriculture, and manufacturing—real estate must re-assess its role in society and how it can be a net contributor to decarbonization instead of a net contributor to global warming.

Photo at top: Buildings on a Boston waterfront. Photo by Kristin Vogt on Pexels.

Be There: The Gerald A. Meehl Symposium

Highlighting Key Sessions at AMS 2025

A symposium at the 105th Annual Meeting of the American Meteorological Society will honor Gerald (Jerry) Meehl, a nationally and internationally recognized leader in climate dynamics, climate change, climate modeling and Earth system predictability, and present cutting-edge science in his areas of expertise. Meehl is currently a Senior Scientist at the NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), section head of the Climate Change Research Section, and the Principal Investigator/Chief Scientist for the DOE-NCAR Cooperative Agreement To Analyze variabiLity, change and predictabilitY in the earth SysTem (CATALYST) project.

We spoke to Gerald A. Meehl Symposium Co-Chair Aixue Hu, Project Scientist in the Climate and Global Dynamics Lab at NSF NCAR, about the field, Dr. Meehl, and what to expect during the symposium, which takes place Tuesday, 14 January, 2025.

“Jerry is a living, breathing encyclopedia of the history behind the history of climate science.”

–Maria Molina, NSF NCAR/University of Maryland

What can attendees expect from the Symposium?

This symposium will honor Dr. Meehl’s service to the climate research community (including his contributions to the CMIP and IPCC assessment reports); and will highlight the current state of research on climate variability, predictability, and change.

Presentations will discuss topics including extreme events, climate dynamics, marine heat waves, subseasonal to decadal climate prediction and predictability, AI and machine learning in climate research and prediction, and interactions between internal variability and external forcings – along with current modelling efforts and the future directions of model improvements.

Why is this such an important field right now?

The global mean temperature continues to rise, and most of the hottest years on record have appeared in the most recent decade. This change in the mean background climate can result in significant impacts on accurate weather forecasts, and on subseasonal to seasonal to decadal predictions. For example, with a much warmer mean climate, the chance for extreme weather events (heat waves, hurricanes, extreme precipitation) increases. Society benefits from improving our understanding of how this change in mean climate will affect our capability to accurately predict/forecast the weather on shorter timescales, and ENSO and decadal climate modes on longer timescales.  

How would you summarize Jerry Meehl’s impact on the field so far?

Over the years, Jerry has spearheaded several new research directions focused on climate models. For example, his work has greatly advanced our understanding of the global warming slowdown in the early 2000s (the “hiatus”) and explored its predictability. His pioneering 2011 Nature Climate Change paper on this topic was named one of the five most influential papers in the first five years of Nature Climate Change (2016). His work has also been crucial to the study of extreme temperature events, monsoons, and decadal climate variability and predictability.

Jerry chaired the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) Panel under the World Climate Research Program (WCRP) from 1997 to 2007. He led the formulation of the CMIP1 through CMIP3 projects and continued to serve on the panel as it formulated CMIP5 and 6. CMIP1-3 provided the physical science foundation for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) AR3 and AR4 reports.

A historic workshop held at Scripps in 1994 convened the global coupled modeling community to help formulate CMIP; Meehl is pictured second from left, in the second row from the bottom; also pictured: Ron Stouffer (4th from left), Karl Taylor (5th from left), Ben Santer 6th from left. Photo courtesy of Gerald Meehl.

Dr. Meehl also chaired the WCRP Working Group on Coupled Models (2004-2013) and the National Academy of Sciences/National Research Council Climate Research Committee (2008-2011), among other prominent national and international committees. He was a contributing, coordinating, or lead author for the IPCC AR1-AR5 reports, and a member of the IPCC science team that was awarded the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize.

Photo: Author team for Chapter 10, “Global Climate Projections,” IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4), Christchurch, NZ, 2005; coordinating lead authors Jerry Meehl and Thomas Stocker are center back. Photo courtesy of Jerry Meehl.

The AMS has recognized Jerry’s scientific contributions to, and leadership in, climate research, awarding him the Jule G. Charney Award in 2009 “for outstanding collaborative contributions to modeling climate and its response to anthropogenic and natural forcings” and the Sverdrup Gold Medal in 2023 “for seminal work integrating observations, models, and theory to understand variability and change in the ocean and atmosphere.” He is also a fellow of AMS since 2006, and of AGU since 2014. He has also been recognized by organizations including Reuters and Web of Science as an influential and very highly cited researcher.

Left photo: Jerry Meehl and Warren Washington awarded the AMS Charney Award, in Phoenix, AZ (2009). Right photo: Group photo of participants in the Warren Washington Symposium at AMS, January 2010, convened by Dave Bader and Jerry Meehl; the only time that “legends of climate modeling” Suki Manabe, Larry Gates, Warren Washington, and Jim Hansen attended the same meeting at the same time. From left:  Kirk Bryan, Suki Manabe, Jerry, Greg Jenkins, Larry Gates, Jane Lubchenco, Steve Schneider, Dave Bader, Warren Washington, John Kutzbach, V. Ramanathan, Jim Hansen, Bert Semtner. Photo credits: American Meteorological Society.

Even as a world famous climate scientist, Jerry is very approachable. He makes himself available to young scientists and gives them unselfish guidance and support. When Jerry was leading the CMIP effort and was lead author for the IPCC assessment reports, his communication skills helped move the CMIP effort forward, and he navigated through differences among lead authors smoothly. Jerry is not only a great scientist, but also a great mentor, communicator, and writer. He has worked with numerous graduate students, post-docs, and junior researchers and left significant impacts on their careers. That includes being my own mentor and role model for over 20 years! 

It might be a surprise to many people, especially the early career scientists, that Jerry is also a writer. He has authored and co-authored six books that grew out of his personal interests in World War II, especially in the Pacific theater. His ability to communicate and relate to others shines through no matter what he does!

The Gerald A. Meehl Symposium will be held Tuesday, 14 January, 2025 at the AMS 105th Annual Meeting, in New Orleans, LA, and online. Learn more about the Symposium and view the program.

Be There: The Heather Lazrus Symposium

Highlighting Key Sessions at AMS 2025

How can the scientific enterprise be improved by including Indigenous knowledge systems and scientific methodologies? How can we better support Indigenous researchers? How can other researchers cultivate respectful and fruitful relationships with Indigenous communities to improve the actionable, cultural and societal relevance of scientific efforts and environmental adaptation?

Since 2010, sessions and symposia at the AMS Annual Meeting have highlighted the importance of recognizing and respecting Indigenous science and knowledge systems within our geoscience communities. Dr. Heather Lazrus, co-founder of the Rising Voices Center for Indigenous and Earth Sciences, was a key force behind these initiatives. To honor Lazrus, who passed on from cancer in February 2023, the 105th Annual Meeting will host the AMS 2025 Heather Lazrus Symposium, “Convergence Science: Indigenous Weather, Water and Climate Knowledge, Systems, Practices and Communities.”

“The urgent threat posed by our climate crisis necessitates innovative actions. Innovation is an opportunity to look beyond Earth sciences to solutions in other knowledge systems and, in doing so, to support the rising voices of those who have been historically marginalized.” 
– Lazrus et al., 2022

What is Convergence Science?

As Symposium co-host Julie Maldonado and colleagues write in an upcoming paper, convergence science “brings together diverse disciplines, cultures, knowledge systems, and ways of knowing and understanding to solve complex problems that cannot be addressed by a single discipline or knowledge-system alone.” The term “convergence science” is often used in the context of bringing together physical, biological, and social sciences; recognizing Indigenous perspectives further emphasizes the artificial nature of boundaries between sciences and ways of knowing. The Rising Voices, Changing Coasts Hub notes that convergence science asserts “the deep relationality of life, of the planet, of mother earth, of the affirmation that we are all related.”

Honoring a Life of Justice and Leadership

Lazrus, a noted environmental anthropologist, made important strides to strengthen collaborations among Indigenous communities and researchers around climate and environmental change. She co-founded and co-directed the Rising Voices Center for Indigenous and Earth Sciences at the U.S. National Science Foundation’s National Center for Atmospheric Research and was co-principal investigator of the NSF-funded Rising Voices, Changing Coasts: The National Indigenous and Earth Sciences Convergence Hub (RVCC Hub) project.

(Image: Attendees at the 7th Annual Rising Voices Workshop, held in 2019 at NSF NCAR in Boulder, CO. Photo courtesy of the Rising Voices Center.)

Lazrus was a beloved kin in many communities, who navigated complex discussions and relationships with skill to foster respectful and meaningful relationships. Author of more than 100 research articles, book chapters, influential reports, and more, Lazrus was one of the most cited experts in her field. Yet she was also known for her humility and willingness to engage in important work behind the scenes.

As her colleagues Julie Maldonado, Elizabeth Marino, Shannon McNeeley, and Courtney Carothers wrote in their tribute to her for the Society for Applied Anthropology, “Heather … was a mother, partner, friend, scholar, adventurer, social justice advocate, scientist, matchmaker, and intellectual, involved in the creation of many relationships, ideas, and movements …”

“She was a trailblazer among scientists centering culture and equity in the study of the lived experiences of climate change. She was also an early advocate for decolonized pedagogy and research.”

(Image: Lazrus at the 4th Annual Rising Voices Workshop, held in 2016 on Hawai‘i Island. Photo courtesy of the Rising Voices Center.)

“She fought always for what is right. She was funny. She led with her heart. She believed that the world could become a better place. … We believe she is still close to the work she leaves behind, and close to the circle of people and all relations that will carry her legacy forward.”

What to Expect from the Symposium

The Lazrus Symposium will host a Presidential Session with the RVCC’s’ Louisiana Hub, in which local Tribal leaders, elders, and partnering scientists share their stories of weaving together Indigenous and other science knowledge for place-based convergence science and community adaptation. 

The Symposium will also include presentations from early career Indigenous scholars on emerging Indigenous innovations related to weather, water, and climate. For example, sharing ideas focused on Indigenous-led systems change and capacity sharing for community resilience, salt marsh restoration as climate mitigation, convergent research for climate adaptation and supporting subsistence harvests, and biocultural approaches to mitigate fire risk. A luncheon will be held in honor of Lazrus, featuring a special screening of “Everything Has a Spirit” and a conversation with filmmaker Ava Hamilton (Arapaho). In addition, the program includes discussions on how to improve scientific partnerships among federal agencies and Tribal governments and communities, and presentations by Indigenous scientists on fostering intercultural dialogue and respectful engagement.

“Whether you have long been engaged in convergence science or intercultural collaborations or you are learning about these ideas for the first time, this space is for you,” note the session organizers. “We welcome the AMS community into this ongoing conversation to co-create culturally relevant and actionable scientific knowledge and actions that increase climate resilience and support healthy, thriving communities today and for future generations.”

The Heather Lazrus Symposium will be held Monday, 13 January, 2025 at the AMS 105th Annual Meeting, in New Orleans, LA, and online; it will feature invited presentations along with a special luncheon. Learn more about the Symposium and view the program.

Special thanks to the Symposium Organizing Committee: Julie Maldonado (Livelihoods Knowledge Exchange Network); Stephanie Herring (NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information); Eileen Shea (Rising Voices); Diamond Tachera (NSF NCAR); Katie Jones (NEON | Battelle); Robbie Hood (Blue Thunderbird LLC); Tim Schneider (NSF NCAR Research Applications Laboratory); Jen Henderson (Texas Tech University); Carlos Martinez (NSF).

An Epic Odyssey: Celebrating Warren Washington (1936–2024)

By Anjuli S. Bamzai, AMS President

Dr. Warren Washington passed away last month. The American Meteorological Society was lucky to benefit from a career’s worth of attention from this exceptional individual — a trailblazer in climate modeling, NCAR Distinguished Scholar, advisor to five U.S. presidents, National Science Board chair, and longtime leader of the AMS community. He was among the first to develop and use the pioneering atmospheric general circulation models that underlie our current understanding of climate change, and his research contributed to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report that received the Nobel Peace Prize in 2007.

Warren joined AMS as an undergraduate student and was actively engaged with the Society his entire career. He served as our AMS President in 1994, our 75th anniversary year. He played a key role in advancing initiatives to enhance diversity in the field, including as a scholarship donor and co-founder of the Board on Women and Minorities. He was named an Honorary Member, and received several prestigious AMS awards. He was a mentor, beloved colleague, and friend to many of us, myself included.

Elucidating the Future Climate

Warren was born in Portland, Oregon. His parents placed a high value on education despite the hostility his mother faced as a nurse when studying at the University of Oregon and the struggles his Talladega College-educated father faced during the Great Depression. Warren earned his undergraduate degree in physics and his master’s degree in meteorology at Oregon State University. He went on to become the second ever African American to earn a doctorate in the atmospheric sciences, which he received from Penn State University in 1964.

<<The cover of Dr. Warren Washington’s autobiography shows a 1930 panoramic photograph (in three parts) of the Portland, Oregon Bethel African Methodist Episcopal Church and its congregation, which represented about 5% of Oregon’s Black population at the time. Warren’s maternal grandfather, Wirt Morton Sr., is fifth from the right in the bottom segment; Warren’s mother, Dorothy Morton, is in the top segment (to the left of the church door and immediately to the left of the man holding a hat in his hand).

In 1963, Warren joined the NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) as a research scientist. He would remain connected with NCAR for over six decades. He was a Distinguished Scholar there at the time of his passing.

In the 1960s, he worked with his colleague Dr. Akira Kasahara to develop one of the first computer models of the atmosphere. His team at NCAR used those models to enhance our understanding of the role of natural processes as well as human activities in the coupled Earth system — over time incorporating oceans, sea ice, surface hydrology, and more into their simulations. This research would go on to inform innumerable contributions in climate science, including the IPCC’s Nobel Peace Prize-winning work.

Dr. Warren Washington with colleagues. Photo at left: Warren Washington and Akira Kasahara, courtesy of NSF NCAR Archives (original work published 1975). Center photo: Warren and Mary Washington with Anjuli Bamzai. Photo at right: NCAR Climate Change Research Section, 2005. Left to right: Warren Washington, Jerry Meehl, Haiyan Teng, Gary Strand, Stephanie Shearer, Dave Lawrence, Vince Wayland, Julie Arblaster, Reto Knutti, Aixue Hu, and Lawrence Buja. Photo courtesy of Jerry Meehl, NSF NCAR.

In 1986, Warren co-authored the book, An Introduction to Three-Dimensional Climate Modeling, with Claire Parkinson. It provided an introduction to the development of three-dimensional climate models and their applications for simulating aspects of the current climate system, from ENSO to the effects of increasing greenhouse gas concentrations on future climate.

I met Warren on my first visit to NCAR back in the 1990s, and then interacted more closely with him when I was program manager of the climate modeling program at the U.S. Department of Energy and he was serving on the DOE Biological and Environmental Research Advisory Committee (BERAC). We also worked closely on an  international workshop, “Challenges in Climate Change Science and the Role of Computing at the Extreme Scale,” which Warren chaired in 2008. In looking back at the workshop’s themes — which focused on computational issues associated with model development, simulations and assessment, decadal predictability, natural variability and prediction — I am struck by what a visionary Warren was to identify several decades ago some of the vexing issues in climate science that we are still addressing today!

A Decorated Life

During the span of his illustrious career, Warren was on numerous federal advisory committees and commissions. He served on the National Science Board (1994–2006); initially as a member and then as the Chair starting in 2002. In 2002, he was elected to the National Academy of Engineering “for pioneering the development of coupled climate models, their use on parallel supercomputing architectures, and their interpretation.” In 2003, he was elected to the American Philosophical Society.

In 1999, Warren received the Charles Anderson Award from the AMS for “pioneering efforts as a mentor and passionate supporter of individuals, educational programs, and outreach initiatives designed to foster a diverse population of atmospheric scientists. Dr. Charles E. Anderson (1919-1994) was a former Tuskegee Airman and the first African American to receive a PhD in meteorology.

<< Dr. Warren Washington receiving the Charles E. Anderson award in 1999, from AMS President George Lawrence Frederick Jr. Photo courtesy of AMS archives.

In 2006, Warren became an Honorary Member of the AMS. In his acceptance speech, for which he received a standing ovation, he advised early career scientists to find personal growth and leadership by taking part in the broader aspects of their field. He also stated that “Scientists should be free to tell the public, media, and policy makers the results of their research. Of course, there is always the need to make sure not to confuse the public, so individual responsibility is important.” He ended his speech by pointing out that scientific debate should be settled at scientific society meetings.

At the following AMS Annual Meeting, he received the Charles Franklin Brooks Award for Outstanding Service to the Society, and a couple of years later, he shared the 2009 AMS Jule G. Charney Medal with his longtime colleague and collaborator Jerry Meehl.

Warren and Jerry Meehl with Marla Meehl and Mary Washington at the 89th AMS Annual Meeting, held January 2009 in Phoenix, AZ. Photo courtesy of Jerry Meehl, NCAR.

Warren Washington with President Barack Obama

In 2010, Warren was also one of the ten eminent researchers to be awarded the National Medal of Science by President Barack Obama, “for his development and use of global climate models to understand climate and explain the role of human activities and natural processes in the Earth’s climate system and for his work to support a diverse science and engineering workforce.” 

<< Warren Washington receives the National Medal of Science from President Barack Obama. Copyright Charles M. Vest (2010), used with permission.

Also in 2010, a symposium was held in Warren’s honor at the AMS Annual Meeting in Atlanta, Georgia. It was attended by many of the legends of climate modeling!

Attendees at Warren Washington symposium
Mary (left) and Warren (right) Washington at Penn State outside the Warren M. Washington building

Left: Group photo at symposium honoring Warren Washington at the 90th AMS Annual Meeting, held January 2010 in Atlanta, Georgia. From left: Kirk Bryan, Syukuro Manabe, Gerald Meehl, Greg Jenkins, Larry Gates, Jane Lubchenco, Steve Schneider, Dave Bader, Warren Washington, John Kutzbach, V. Ramanathan, Jim Hansen, and Bert Semtner. Photo copyright University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (2010). Right: Mary and Warren Washington at the newly named Warren M. Washington building at Penn State University’s Innovation Park. Photo credit: Patrick Mansell/Penn State (Creative Commons license).

Warren was a Distinguished Alumnus of Penn State and in 2019, Penn State named a building in his honor at its campus Innovation Park site.

A Legacy of Empowerment

Warren was instrumental in establishing AMS’s Board on Women and Minorities, now known as AMS BRAID. He and his wife, Mary, also established an AMS undergraduate scholarship to provide support to underrepresented students. Through their generosity, several who otherwise might not have attended the AMS Annual Meeting have been able to do so.

In early 2020, the AMS set up The Warren Washington Research and Leadership Medal to be awarded to individuals recognized for the combination of highly significant research and distinguished scientific leadership in the atmospheric and related sciences.

Warren was a pioneer and true giant in our community. Those of us who were fortunate to interact with him benefited from his sage counsel, vision, and sharp intellect. No question was mundane enough that it didn’t get a deliberate, candid yet considerate response from him. He helped so many realize their full potential to excel. What a great scientist, and a great humanist! His legacy lives on through those he supported, mentored, and inspired.

Dr. Warren Washington was the epitome of a true leader.

Photo at top: Warren Washington with the late Fuqing Zhang (back to camera) and Ruby Leung. Past-President Jenni Evans is in the background on the left. Taken at the 2019 opening of the Warren M. Washington building at Penn State. Photo credit: David Kubarek/Penn State (Creative Commons license).

What’s the Future of Weather Decision-Making?

A 2024 AMS Summer Community Meeting highlight

Matt Corey

The AMS Summer Community Meeting drew exceptional attendance and engagement this year as people across sectors helped inform an upcoming report on the Weather Enterprise. The AMS Weather Enterprise Study will provide a comprehensive picture of the shifting landscape of weather-related fields to inform our joint future. At the 2024 SCM, working groups discussed what they’d found about key issues facing the enterprise, and asked for feedback from the community.

Here are a few takeaways from the Decision Support Services working group, as reported by Matt Corey (pictured at left) of Microsoft Weather. Decision support services (DSS) help stakeholders make weather-related decisions that are informed by the best available knowledge across fields. They are crucial for emergency managers and many other decision makers, as well as members of the public.

How has the decision support landscape shifted in the last decade or so?

Stakeholders for DSS range from an emergency manager making critical decisions about an entire community to an everyday citizen making a decision for themselves or their family. For decision support services, the last two decades have seen an abundance of technology changes which have allowed stakeholders easier access to information. However, this can be both a benefit and a challenge, as misinformation has also become more readily available.

What were the main themes that came out of your working group’s discussions?

The themes that emerged for us included:

  • The different sectors of the Weather Enterprise have become coupled, with less well-defined boundaries when it comes to providing decision support.
  • New players are entering the enterprise, with growing AI and novel ideas.
  • Developing and maintaining the necessary workforce is a concern.
  • There are increased opportunities for translating forecasts into easily understood language in order to support decisions.
  • There is a need for increased funding for quality observational datasets for many applications, especially in AI.
  • In a complex, misinformation-rich environment, there is still room for all sectors to tailor communications to stakeholders, but there is also concern about maintaining consistency in order to maintain trust.
  • Embracing user centric design to understand stakeholder concerns, technical levels, and understanding is important, including the use of probabilistic information.  Example:  “There is an 80% chance the flooding will happen this afternoon.”

What are the main challenges you have identified?

In our group, the discussion continues to be about who should be providing decision support services. As the NWS gets more involved in DSS, one concern is for increased friction from some private sector entities. Another key point is that DSS is not limited to a specific stakeholder type. DSS is important to all citizens who need to make decisions involving weather every day, thus there is a shared dimension and need for responsible and clear messaging to all stakeholders (including the tactical use of probabilistic information). 

A final recurring theme is around the workforce itself. Forecasters need to be taught communication skills, and social science is critical in helping to understand the needs and problems to be solved for the end users. With the focus shifting to newer tools including AI-infused capabilities, there is a concern that the new workforce will lose the necessary skills critical in conveying adequate decision support services.

What preliminary/tentative recommendations, solutions, or future directions have you discussed?

Some of the recommendations we’re working with right now focus on:

  • Integration of weather, water, and climate information with socioeconomic and biosphere information for earth system forecasts.
  • Cross-sector support of ecological forecasts and environmental early warning systems (for example, warnings of fishing industry impacts due to warmer water) to benefit society and facilitate impact-based action.
  • Improved communication about weather impacts, especially in a changing climate, using common terms and learnings based on stakeholder’s decision needs.
  • Embracing AI as a way to increase the velocity of forecasts, integrate probabilistic information into forecasts, and increase efficiency for both short-term services like nowcasting and long-term climate solutions for all.
  • Helping meteorologists to become the communicators that they should be. Leveraging AI solutions and tools to help make them more efficient at helping stakeholders with their decisions.
  • Expanding opportunities for smaller businesses/individuals to obtain specialized DSS.
  • Increased public awareness of changing weather patterns stimulating the need for better accuracy, earlier warnings, and long-range projections.
  • The need to smartly integrate probabilistic information to help stakeholders better understand forecasts and limitations.

Want to join a Weather Enterprise Study working group? Email [email protected].

About the Weather Enterprise Study

The AMS Policy Program, working closely with the volunteer leadership of the Commission on the Weather, Water, and Climate Enterprise, is conducting a two-year effort (2023-2025) to assess how well the weather enterprise is performing, and to potentially develop new recommendations for how it might serve the public even better. Learn more here, give us your input via Google Forms, or get involved by contacting [email protected].  

About the AMS Summer Community Meeting

The AMS Summer Community Meeting (SCM) is a special time for professionals from academia, industry, government, and NGOs to come together to discuss broader strategic priorities, identify challenges to be addressed and opportunities to collaborate, and share points of view on pressing topics. The SCM provides a unique, informal setting for constructive deliberation of current issues and development of a shared vision for the future. The 2024 Summer Community Meeting took place August 5-6 in Washington, DC, and focused special attention on the Weather Enterprise, with opportunities for the entire community to learn about, discuss, debate, and extend some of the preliminary findings coming from the AMS Weather Enterprise Study.

Can Decarbonizing the Electric Grid Help Avert Climate Catastrophe?

Photo by Harry Cunningham @harry.digital: https://www.pexels.com/photo/photo-of-wind-turbines-under-cloudy-sky-3619870/

A Presidential Session Spotlight from the AMS 104th Annual Meeting

By Katie Pflaumer, AMS Staff

Significantly reducing greenhouse gas emissions requires transitioning primarily to carbon-free sources for energy generation, but many challenges stand in the way. What are these challenges, and how can the weather, water, and climate sector help meet them?

A Presidential Session at the 104th AMS Annual Meeting addressed those questions with panelists Debbie Lew (Executive Director at ESIG, the Energy Systems Integration Group), Alexander “Sandy” MacDonald (former AMS President and former director of the NOAA Earth Systems Research Laboratory), Aidan Tuohy (Director of Transmission Operations and Planning at EPRI, the Electric Power Research Institute), and Justin Sharp (then Owner and Principal of Sharply Focused, now Technical Leader in the Transmission and Operations Planning team at EPRI). Here are some key points that arose from the session, titled, “Transition to Carbon-Free Energy Generation,” introduced by NSF NCAR’s Jared Lee, and moderated by MESO, Inc.’s John Zack.

Key Points

  • Decarbonizing the electric grid is key to reducing U.S. greenhouse gas emissions.
  • Wind and solar are now the cheapest forms of energy generation; adoption is increasing, but not fast enough to catch up with the likely growth in demand. 
  • Energy demand is rapidly increasing, driven by the expansion of data centers, AI applications, crypto mining, and the electrification of transportation and heating. Hydrogen production might greatly increase future loads. 
  • “Massive buildouts” of both renewable energy plants AND transmission infrastructure are required to reduce emissions. 
  • A reliable and affordable power system with large shares of wind and solar generation requires accurate historical weather information to inform infrastructure buildout, and accurate forecasts to support operations. 
  • To avoid expensive infrastructure that’s only used during peak times, electricity pricing must incentivize consumers to avoid excessive use during periods of high demand. This requires accurate weather forecasting. 
  • Connecting the three main national grids together into a “supergrid” could improve transmission and grid flexibility, significantly reducing emissions.

The need for carbon-free energy is urgent

Greenhouse gas emissions are still increasing sharply. In response, global temperatures are rising faster than even the most pessimistic models would have predicted a few decades ago, noted Lee in his introductory remarks to the panel. The U.S. is the second largest global carbon emitter, despite having a much smaller population than the other top emitters, China and India.

If we don’t solve the greenhouse gas problem by mid-century, warned MacDonald, we will soon hit 700 ppm of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. If that happens, “We’re back to the Miocene era,” he said, referencing an exceptionally hot period around 12.5 million years ago. “Northern Hemisphere land temperatures will be 11 degrees Fahrenheit warmer. Arctic temps will be 17°F warmer, which is probably going to launch a huge permafrost thaw … The ocean will be 80% more acidic. So we are in an urgent situation.”

What’s the path to a more sustainable future? Decarbonizing the grid.

The energy sector is one of the top sources of U.S. emissions—and reducing emissions there will have knock-on effects in buildings and transportation. Lee noted that wind and solar power have dropped dramatically in price, becoming the cheapest forms of energy generation available. This has led to an increase in adoption: renewables are now second only to natural gas in terms of electrical power generated in the United States. Yet natural gas is still growing fast, and still far exceeds the use of renewables.

Therefore, Lew said in her talk, we need “massive buildouts of [wind, solar, and battery] resources … doubling or even tripling the amount of installed capacity. We’re going to be electrifying buildings, transportation, industry [and] massively building out transmission and distribution networks … And we’re going to be using fossil fuel generators for reliability needs.” Doing this could get us to 80-90% fossil-free energy production.

Bridging the gap

But what about that last 10–20%?

“We need some kind of cost-effective, clean, firm resource” to fill in the gaps and act as a bridge fuel—a resource that’s available 24/7 no matter the weather or season—said Lew. This resource might end up being hydrogen, advanced nuclear energy, or even green bioenergy with carbon capture and sequestration to offset emissions from natural gas. “We need all options on the table.”

Weather? Or not?

Trying to transition to renewables without incorporating reliability and resilience will lead to blackouts and power outages, Tuohy noted. These would have major economic consequences and reduce the political viability of renewables, as well as leading to unjust allocation of energy.

A resilient grid, he said, requires enough energy production to meet future demand; adequate transmission and delivery infrastructure to meet future needs and to balance supply with demand moment-to-moment every day; reliability despite constant shifts in energy production; and the ability to prevent a problem in one place from causing cascading outages across the system. 

Making a new, wind- and solar-dependent grid truly work means balancing—and forecasting—energy availability and demand across the nation, accounting for the current and predicted weather at each solar and wind energy site, as well as how climate change will affect resource availability. This means a massive meteorological infrastructure must be created.

Read our upcoming post from Justin Sharp to learn more about how weather and renewable energy must work together.

“[This is] an operational need, not a research project … There’s an imperative to have dedicated, accurate, and expertly curated weather information to support the energy transition.”

—Justin Sharp

Uncertainty

Demands on the grid are now subject to extreme variability, not just from weather and climate, Tuohy said. For example, demand projections from 2022 versus 2023 were radically different because of new energy-intensive data centers coming online.

“We’ve gone from a kind of deterministic system — [in which we] had good sense of, our peak demand’s going to happen in July—to a far more stochastic and variable type, both on the demand and the supply side,” said Tuohy. We have a lot of data and computational tools, but we must be able to bring those datasets together effectively so we can analyze and predict change. “We need to … develop tools that account for [uncertainty].”

Changing behavior

The infrastructure required for the necessary expansion of renewable energy generation will be expensive. Keeping the cost manageable means not wasting money to build extra infrastructure that’s only useful during times of peak demand. That means we need to avoid high peaks in energy use.

We know that people can be a lot more conscientious about energy consumption if they think it will save them money. Yet many consumers are currently sheltered from the financial consequences of overloading the grid. “There’s tremendous flexibility in load if you … expose consumers to better price signals,” Lew said.

Consumers could be financially incentivized, for example, to choose off-peak times to turn on a heater or charge an electric vehicle. Such programs should be carefully designed to minimize negative impacts on vulnerable consumers, but the fact remains that to keep those consumers safe, the climate crisis must be confronted.

Supergrid to the rescue?

The main problem with a renewable energy grid, the speakers acknowledged, is transmission—both connecting new generators and moving energy based on supply and demand. “You’ve got to be able to move wind and solar energy around at continental scales,” said MacDonald. A study by ESIG suggested that simply adding a 2-gigawatt transmission line connecting the Texas power grid with the Eastern U.S. power grid would effectively act like 4 GW of extra electricity generating capacity across the two regions, because their grids experience risk and stress at different, complementary times.

A 2016 paper MacDonald and colleagues published in Nature Climate Change suggests that U.S. electricity-sector carbon emissions could be decreased by 80% — with current technology and without increased electricity costs — if the United States can implement a “supergrid.” That means connecting all three major electrical grids currently serving the continental United States. When it’s sunny in San Jose and snowing in Cincinnati, you could transmit solar-produced energy to keep Ohio homes warm, rather than generating extra power locally. 

It will take a lot of effort, but “if we [start implementing a supergrid] now, in a 40-year transition, we can preserve the environment we have,” MacDonald said. “If we wait until the 2040s, we are basically going to devastate the planet’s life for thousands of years.”

You can view all the AMS 104th Annual Meeting presentations online. Watch this Presidential Session.

Photo at top: Harry Cunningham on Pexels (@harry.digital)

Trailblazer meteorologist Eugenia Kalnay (1942–2024)

Eugenia Kalnay two photos

We stand on the shoulders of gentle giants

By Anjuli S. Bamzai, PhD, AMS President

Last month, we lost a giant in the field of meteorology. Through the course of her illustrious career, Eugenia Kalnay pioneered not only the fundamental science and practical applications of numerical weather prediction, she also influenced many careers. Her scientific contributions and leadership led to improved forecasts, helping save lives and property across the globe and making U.S. weather and seasonal climate prediction world-class. 

Kalnay had deep ties with the AMS. In 1982, she became a Fellow of the AMS. She was elected to the AMS Council in 1995. In 2015, a named Symposium was held in her honor at the 95th AMS Annual Meeting in Phoenix. The list of awards she received from the AMS includes the following: Jule G. Charney Award (1995), Joanne Simpson Mentorship Award (2015), Honorary Member (2015), and the first ever Jagadish Shukla Earth System Predictability Prize (2024).

Kalnay receiving the Joanne Simpson Mentorship Award in 2015 from AMS President William Gail. (Photo credit: AMS)

Kalnay exemplified simple living and high thinking. She demonstrated how one can, through grit and determination, overcome unforeseen obstacles and achieve what one sets out for oneself. In 1966, having completed her undergraduate degree, she was working as a meteorology research assistant at the University of Buenos Aires, when a military coup occurred in Argentina. In its wake, mass resignations and disruptions on campus made it untenable for her to continue to work there. Through the timely support and intervention of Dean Rolando Garcia, she got an opportunity to pursue her studies in meteorology at MIT. Her graduate advisor was Jule G. Charney. 

The rest of her story will go down in the annals of meteorology.

In 1971 she became the first female PhD and, two years later, the first female professor in the MIT Department of Meteorology. She was a role model for other women that followed, including Paola Malanotte-Rizzoli and Inez Fung, pioneers in their own right. She later moved to NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center Laboratory for Atmospheres; in 1984, she became Head of the Global Modeling and Simulation Branch. From 1987 to 1997, she worked as director of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Environmental Modeling Center at NOAA. 

Her efforts and leadership in data assimilation approaches at NCEP led to substantive improvements in weather forecast models. The data assimilation approaches she developed at NCEP, along with the “breeding method” she created with Zoltan Toth, helped improve weather forecasts, making a useful 10-day forecast possible. 

Kalnay spearheaded a major reanalysis project of 40+ years of global climate data there (and later, 50- and 60-year reanalyses), which became a keystone for climate science. The 1996 paper in BAMS describing the 40-year reanalysis project has, at last count, been cited a staggering 35,330 times, making it one of the most widely referenced articles in geosciences. According to the American Academy of Arts & Sciences, “The reanalysis is certainly the most scientifically fertile dataset in climate science since its creation (and perhaps for all time).” 

The 50-year reanalysis data set was distributed as a CD-ROM at an AMS annual meeting. It was a precursor for other reanalysis datasets that followed, such as paleo reanalysis and climate of the 20th century.

<<The NCEP/NCAR 40-year Reanalysis Project paper was published in 1996 in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society.

After retiring from federal service, Kalnay returned to academia and was appointed Robert E. Lowry Chair of the School of Meteorology at the University of Oklahoma. In 1999, she joined the Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science at the University of Maryland, College Park. She subsequently served as Distinguished University Professor and was an active researcher till the end.

In 2002 she published a book entitled Atmospheric Modeling, Data Assimilation and Predictability. It is now in its fifth edition, and has been translated into Chinese and Korean.

Left: Kalnay’s book, published in 2002. Center: Kalnay with Ron McPherson (left) and Louis Uccellini (right), both past AMS Presidents and former NCEP Directors, at the Symposium of the 50th Anniversary of Operational Numerical Weather Prediction, June 2004 (photo credit: NOAA NCEP). Right: Kalnay and two of her colleagues, Sumant Nigam and Zhanqing Li, were featured on the cover of the May 2004 issue of Science. The article highlighted foreign-born meteorologists from the University of Maryland, College Park’s Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science.

A 2010 interview in the WMO Bulletin gives us a glimpse into Kalnay’s passion for meteorology.  

“I’m lucky to be working in atmospheric sciences,” she said. “It’s a fascinating subject. Working in meteorology is like working in physics, but without the danger of anybody saying, ‘So why are you doing that? What is the use?’ What we do is incredibly useful, especially since it is not national or regional, but global.”

In the past decade or so, Kalnay had been working on the leading-edge topic of climate change and sustainability, recognizing, as she and her colleagues wrote in a 2023 paper, that “the Earth is a very large and complex system that consists of human and natural components interacting bidirectionally with each other.” She and her team — which included Safa Mote and Jorge Rivas, Kalnay’s son — were extending concepts from weather forecasting, such as uncertainty, high sensitivity, and error propagation, to the coupled human-Earth system, and tackling its dynamic interactions.

Earth Day 2022: Safa Mote, Eugenia Kalnay, and Anjuli Bamzai. (Photo credit: Anjuli Bamzai)

Eugenia Kalnay was not only an active scientist who published her results in top-notch journals, she also engaged in practical applications of the science and promoted the kind of international collaborations that continue to advance atmospheric science for the benefit of global communities and economies. She was a member of the National Academy of Engineering (NAE), Foreign Member of the Academia Europaea and Argentine Academy of Physical Sciences, and 2009 winner of the International Meteorological Organization (IMO) Prize. 

Eugenia inspired the next generation of scientists in the field, across many countries. She always maintained her academic connections to Argentina, including teaching courses and supervising research theses at the University of Buenos Aires, which granted her an honorary doctorate. She also has a women’s soccer team there named after her: Eugenia Kalnay FC!

Eugenia Kalnay was a major influence in Argentina as well as globally. Left: Kalnay (front row, second from right) with her mentor, Rolando Garcia (front row, far right) and her mentee, eminent atmospheric scientist Carolina Vera (center) in 2003, when Eugenia was designated member of the Argentina Academy of Exact and Natural Sciences. Top right: Kalnay with members of the Eugenia Kalnay football team. Bottom right: The full Eugenia Kalnay FC team. (Photo credit: Carolina Vera)

She was a beloved mentor, who was concerned not only with science but also nurturing people’s promise, collectively and individually—including advancing women in the field. An interview with the Inter-American Network of Academies of Sciences showcases some of the wisdom she left for us:

Of course, women should be in science!  Why would one even think of wasting the brains of half of the scientifically inclined population?

The most important advice is to work on what you like to do, without worrying about money or recognition, which will come if you put passion in your work.

Learn to speak clearly, briefly and forcefully, and don’t allow others to interrupt you!

She was a kind a generous soul, and her unstinting generosity in providing advice, encouragement, leadership and inspiration will be missed. Her enduring legacy will be a beacon of light for generations to follow.

When I posted the sad news of her passing on the AMS Open Forum, there was an outpouring of condolences from every quarter of the globe. 

Even as we grieve our loss, we celebrate her tremendous contributions and leadership.

Photos at top of post: Left: Eugenia Kalnay (photo credit: John Consoli, University of Maryland). Right: Kalnay and her son Jorge Rivas at the 2024 AMS Awards ceremony, where she received the Jagadish Shukla Earth System Predictability Prize (photo credit: AMS).

Anjuli is grateful to Katherine ‘Katie’ Pflaumer for providing useful edits.

Key Takeaways from the “State of the Climate in 2023”

Glacial retreat at ice worm glacier

Earth hit record highs in global temps, greenhouse gases, sea level, and more last year.

By AMS Staff

Last year, global high temperatures, warm oceans, and massive wildfires broke records and sparked increasing concern about climate change. Now the annual State of the Climate report, produced by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) and peer reviewed and published by the American Meteorological Society, gives us an in-depth global picture of 2023, a year of extremes. 

According to the NOAA/AMS press release, the State of the Climate report this year includes contributions from more than 590 scientists from 59 countries, and “provides the most comprehensive update on Earth’s climate indicators, notable weather events, and other data collected by environmental monitoring stations and instruments located on land, water, ice and in space.”

Below are a few highlights from 2023.

Record-high greenhouse gases (again)

Global atmospheric carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide all reached higher concentrations than ever recorded. CO2 was 419.3±0.1ppm, 2.8 ppm higher than in 2023 and 50% higher than pre-industrial levels. This is the fourth-largest recorded year-to-year rise in CO2.

Record-high global temperatures

2023 officially beat 2016’s record as the hottest year overall since records began in the 1800s, partly due to the transition from La Niña to a strong El Niño. Globally, 2023 was 0.99°–1.08°F (0.13°–0.17°C) above the 1991–2020 average. The years 2015–2023 have been the hottest nine years on record.

Global Surface Temperatures Were Above Average Across Most of the World (Plate 2.1a in State of the Climate in 2023): During 2023, much-warmer-than-average conditions were observed across most of the world’s surface, with the largest positive temperature anomalies across parts of the higher northern latitudes, shown here as areas shaded from orange to red. Limited areas experienced near-average to cooler-than-average conditions (blue shading). [Note: graphic shows 2023 average temperature anomalies above or below the 1991-2020 average global temperature.]

North America overall experienced its warmest year since records began in 1910, including a heat wave in Mexico that killed 286 people. The Caribbean also experienced its warmest recorded year, and Europe its warmest or second-warmest depending on the analysis.

In Kyoto, Japan, the cherry trees reached peak bloom on March 25, the earliest bloom in the city’s 1,200-year record. Photo: Balazs Simon on Pexels.

Record-high ocean heat

El Niño also contributed to the hottest oceans ever recorded. Mean annual global sea-surface temperature was 0.23°F (0.13°C) higher than 2016’s previous record, and August 22, 2023 saw an all-time high daily mean global sea-surface temperature of 66.18°F (18.99°C). Marine heat waves were recorded on 116 days of 2023 (vs. the previous record of 86 days in 2016) and global ocean heat content down to 2,000 feet also reached record highs.

Record-high sea levels (again)

Global mean sea level rose 8.1±1.5 mm in 2023, to reach a record 101.4 millimeters above the average from 1993, when satellite measurements began.

Massive wildfires caused by heat and drought

37 million acres of Canada burned in 2023, twice the previous record, causing evacuations for more than 232,000 people and with smoke affecting cities as far away as western Europe. Australia experienced its driest August–October since 1900, leading to millions of acres burned in bushfires in the Northern Territory. The European Union experienced its largest wildfire since 2000 (in the Alexandroupolis Municipality of Greece). Notable wildfires also occurred in Brazil, Paraguay, and in the U.S. state of Hawaii.

Warm poles and a greener Arctic

2023 was the fourth warmest year in the Arctic in the 124-year record, and the warmest recorded June–September. Sea ice reached its fifth-lowest extent in the 45-year record (with many monthly and daily records set), and multi-year ice declined. Despite above-average spring snowpack in the North American and Eurasian Arctic, rapid melting led to record and near-record lows in snow-water equivalent by June. The Northern Sea Route and Northwest Passage both opened, and the Northwest Passage saw a record 42 ship transits. Arctic tundra vegetation reached its third-greenest peak in the 24-year record. 

Much of Antarctica also experienced well-above-average heat. In addition, eight months, and 278 days, saw record lows in sea ice extent and area in Antarctica; daily sea ice extent on 21 February was the lowest ever recorded.

Clean infrared image of Hurricane Otis making landfall near Acapulco, Mexico. Image captured on 25 October, 2023, at 5:20 UTC, by the ABI instrument aboard the GOES-East satellite. Source: NASA Worldview.

Below-average tropical cyclone activity, yet notable storms

There were 82 named tropical storms in 2023, below average. However, global accumulated cyclone energy was above average, rebounding from 2022’s record low, and there were seven Category 5 cyclones. Tropical Cyclone Freddy became the longest lived tropical cyclone on record, lasting from February 6 to March 12; it made landfall three times and caused 165 fatalities in Mozambique and 679 fatalities in Malawi due to flooding and landslides. Typhoon Doksuri/Egay was the costliest economically, causing US$18.4 billion in damages; Beijing saw its heaviest recorded rainfall and 137 residents died in flooding. Rain and floods from Storm Daniel killed at least 4,300 people in Libya. Hurricane Otis underwent the most extreme rapid intensification on record—Category 1 to Category 5 in only nine hours—and became the strongest landfalling hurricane to hit western Mexico, devastating Acapulco.

Persistent ozone hole

The stratospheric ozone hole over Antarctica appeared earlier in the year and lasted longer than normal, and reached its 16th largest extent in 44 years.

The full State of the Climate report includes regional climate breakdowns and notable events in every part of the world. Read the full 2023 report here. Read a summary of key takeaways here.

Image at top: Ice Worm Glacier in the North Cascade mountains of Washington, United States, which was under continuous annual monitoring from 1984 onward and disappeared in 2023. Large photo: The location of former Ice Worm Glacier on 13 August 2023. Inset photo: Ice Worm Glacier on 16 August 1986. Photo credits Mauri Pelto.

Addressing Extreme Heat and Climate Change Adaptation

Jessica Stewart at the AMS 2024 Science Policy Colloquium

Reflections on the 2024 AMS Science Policy Colloquium

By Jessica Stewart, MHA, MPH, student DrPH, The George Washington University

Note: This is a guest blog post; it represents the views of the author alone and not the American Meteorological Society or the AMS Policy Program. The Science Policy Colloquium is non-partisan and non-prescriptive, and promotes understanding of the policy process, not any particular viewpoint(s).

The 2024 AMS Science Policy Colloquium was a deeply enriching experience, offering valuable insights and fostering new connections. As a second-year doctoral student focusing on climate change adaptation and interest in integration of policy and governance, I found the colloquium’s session discussions to be both inspiring and pivotal for my research and professional growth.

Insights into Policymaking

The colloquium provided a detailed exploration of the policy-making process, which I’ll admit I did not fully understand at first. The sessions highlighted the crucial role of effectively communicating scientific findings, showing how this communication can significantly shape policies affecting our world. This realization drove home the impact and importance of my own dissertation research. Engaging with policymakers and federal officials gave me a real-world perspective on the complexities of policymaking and the collaborative efforts needed to enact meaningful changes.
Networking with a diverse group of students, agency professionals, scientists, and industry leaders was invaluable. These interactions offered fresh perspectives on my research interests and opened doors for future collaborations.

Integrating Climate Change Adaptation into Policy

I was able to find a community of other students and agency professionals who were actively engaged in extreme heat research, and we started sharing ideas—a topic that is particularly significant to me as I thought about my home state of California. California has faced increasingly severe heatwaves and droughts, which have serious effects on public health, infrastructure, and ecosystems. These extreme weather events not only strain the healthcare system but also damage critical infrastructure, such as roads, bridges, and water systems. Additionally, they disrupt the balance of natural environments, leading to loss of biodiversity and increased risk of wildfires.

My research interests explore how new technologies, predictive modeling, and resilient infrastructure can be used to adapt to the escalating challenges of climate change. Making sure these technological solutions fit into policy frameworks is key to their success and long-term sustainability. Policies need to be effective and forward-thinking to accommodate emerging technologies and integrate scientific research into practical applications. This alignment ensures that innovations are not only developed but also effectively implemented, providing real-world benefits and enhancing the resilience of communities against the growing threats posed by climate change.

The dynamic discussions on science, technology and its far-reaching impacts were incredibly insightful. This is one of the many products of the colloquium, this vibrant exchange of ideas and solutions, showcasing a united commitment to tackling today’s challenges and preparing for a more resilient future.

Moving Forward

The AMS Science Policy Colloquium has profoundly deepened my understanding of the intersection between science and policy. The insights and connections I gained will significantly enhance my contributions to the field of science. It was an incredibly enriching experience, providing invaluable insights, professional connections, and strengthened my sense of purpose.

About the AMS Science Policy Colloquium

The AMS Science Policy Colloquium is an intensive and non-partisan introduction to the United States federal policy process for scientists and practitioners. Participants meet with congressional staff, officials from the executive office of the President, and leaders from executive branch agencies. They learn first-hand about the interplay of policy, politics, and procedure through legislative exercises. Alumni of this career-shaping experience have gone on to serve in crucial roles for the nation and the scientific community including the highest levels of leadership in the National Weather Service, the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP), the National Science Foundation, and the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP), and AMS itself.

Asian American and Pacific Islander Heritage Month Spotlight: Dr. Syukuro “Suki” Manabe

By Anjuli S. Bamzai, AMS President

My graduate advisor at George Mason University, Dr. Jagadish Shukla, displayed the photos of four meteorologists in his office: Drs. Norman A. Phillips, Jule Charney, Edward Lorenz, and Syukuro “Suki” Manabe. All giants in their field, they had been his PhD advisers at Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT). In the 1990s, as I pursued my graduate degree at Dr. Shukla’s Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies (COLA), the scientific family tree remained strongly connected, and so I in turn had the chance to cross paths with luminaries like Manabe in person.

Suki Manabe photo

Circa 1994, I had the privilege of hearing Manabe–or, as I came to refer to him, Suki-san–give the inaugural talk at the newly established COLA. He spoke about the use of dynamical general circulation models to study the atmosphere and its coupling to land, using a simple ‘bucket’ model to discover emergent properties of this complex, chaotic system. He was an animated speaker; it was apparent that he was driven by curiosity and sheer love of the science that he was pursuing.

I was inspired by his ability to explain the properties of such a complex system as the Earth in such elegant terms. Suki-san’s clarity and scientific passion resulted in contributions to our understanding of climate the importance of which cannot be overstated. As I began my own foray into Earth system science, those initial interactions were a formative experience.

Left: Suki-san enjoying his work. Photo courtesy of Dr. V. Ramaswamy.

The models he used were relatively simple compared to the complex Earth system models of today. Yet Manabe and Wetherald (1967), published in the AMS’s Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, is arguably one of the most influential papers in climate science. It demonstrated a key feature of the atmosphere with an increase in carbon dioxide: rising temperatures closer to the ground while the upper atmosphere got colder. If the variation in solar radiation was primarily responsible for the temperature increase, the entire atmosphere would have gotten warmer.

Graphic from Phys.org, based on Manabe and Wetherald (1967), Figure 16, “Vertical distributions of temperature in radiative convective equilibrium for various values of CO2 content.”

The work that Suki-san and his team conducted comprised a major component of the 1979 report, “Carbon dioxide and climate: A scientific assessment.” Led by Jule Charney from MIT, it is now commonly referred to as the Charney Report. The main result of the succinct 22-page report was that “the most probable global warming for a doubling of [atmospheric] CO2 [is] near 3°C with a probable error of ± 1.5°C.” Perhaps most importantly, the report ruled out the possibility that increasing CO2 would have negligible effects. This estimate of climate sensitivity has pretty much withstood the test of time; in the past forty years, annual average CO2 concentrations increased by ~ 21% and the global average surface temperature increased by ~0.66°C. How prescient!

Suki-san was one of the panelists who shared their insights at a session that the National Academy of Sciences’ Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate (BASC) convened during its November 2019 meeting to commemorate the 40th anniversary of the Charney Report. Suki-san’s concluding slide pretty much summed up his philosophy: make your model just as complicated as it needs to be, no more. (See photo below.)

Panelists photo and concluding slide. Slide text says, "Concluding Remarks: [Bullet point one] Satellite observation of outgoing radiation over annual and inter-decadal time scale should provides macroscopic constraint that is likely to be useful for reducing large uncertainty in climate sensitivity. [Bullet point two] It is desirable to make parameterization of subgrid-scale process 'as simple as possible', because simpler parameterization is more testable."
Left: Panelists at the November 21, 2019 session on The Charney Report: Reflections after 40 years at the BASC meeting. (Left to right) Drs. Jagadish Shukla, former student of Jule Charney; D. James Baker, member of the original authoring committee; Jim Hansen and Syukuro Manabe, major contributors to the original report; and John Perry, staff lead for the report. Right: Dr. Manabe’s final slide at the Charney Report session at BASC. Photos courtesy of Anjuli Bamzai.

October 5, 2021, was such an exciting day to wake up to! The Nobel Prize in Physics was shared by Drs. Syukuro Manabe, Klaus Hasselman, and Giorgio Parisi. The citation reads: “The Nobel Prize in Physics 2021 was awarded for groundbreaking contributions to our understanding of complex physical systems” with one half jointly to Syukuro Manabe and Klaus Hasselmann “for the physical modelling of Earth’s climate, quantifying variability and reliably predicting global warming,” and the other half to Giorgio Parisi “for the discovery of the interplay of disorder and fluctuations in physical systems from atomic to planetary scales.”

As he eloquently stated on the momentous day that he received the Nobel Prize, “I did these experiments out of pure scientific curiosity. I never realized that it would become a problem of such wide-ranging concern for all of human society.”

The accompanying press release on the Nobel Prize particularly cites Suki-san’s work at NOAA in the 1960s, noting that “he led the development of physical models of the Earth’s climate and was the first person to explore the interaction between radiation balance and the vertical transport of air masses. His work laid the foundation for the development of current climate models.”

Suki Manabe with Jagadish Shukla and Marcia McNutt.
Suki Manabe with V. Ramaswamy and Whit Anderson.

Left: Event to honor Nobel Laureate Dr. Suki Manabe at National Academy of Sciences. (Left to right) Drs. Jagadish Shukla, Suki Manabe and Marcia McNutt, President National Academy of Sciences. Photo courtesy of Dr. J. Shukla. Right: (Left to right) Drs. V. Ramaswamy, Director, NOAA GFDL, Suki Manabe, and Whit Anderson, Deputy Director, NOAA GFDL, celebrating the big news of Suki-san’s Nobel Prize, October 2021. Photo courtesy of Dr. V. Ramaswamy.

It is no exaggeration to state that the modeling findings by Suki Manabe and, about a decade later, Klaus Hasselman, opened not only an era of climate modeling but also an entirely new subfield of climate science, viz., detection and attribution (D&A) through fingerprinting and other techniques. Observations have provided an important reality check to model simulations through these D&A efforts.

The current torchbearers of the D&A tradition are Drs. Ben Santer, Tim DelSole, Reto Knutti, Francis Zwiers, Xuebin Zhang, Gabi Hegerl, Claudia Tebaldi, Jerry Meehl, Phil Jones, David Karoly, Peter Stott MBE, Tom Knutson, and Michael Wehner, among others. Over the years several of them have also gone on to receive AMS awards—including, in Meehl’s case, the Jule G. Charney Medal. Speaking of awards, Jonathan Gregory is the most recent recipient of AMS’s Syukuro Manabe Climate Research Award, which has also been bestowed on Drs. Joyce Penner and Cecilia Bitz. Next year, consider nominating someone for the Manabe Award, the Charney Medal, or the new Jagadish Shukla Earth System Predictability Prize!

Equations developed by Dr. Suki Manabe, displayed in the Paris subway during the 2015 UN Climate Change Conference (COP21) in Paris. Photos courtesy of Dr. V. Ramaswamy.

Those of us in the atmospheric and related sciences benefit directly from Suki Manabe’s scientific legacy and intellectual passion, and all of human society owes Suki-san a great debt for helping us to understand climate change, one of the greatest challenges humankind has ever faced.

Anjuli is grateful to Katherine ‘Katie’ Pflaumer for providing useful edits.