AMS Conference

Real Estate Confronts Climate Change

Buildings on a Boston waterfront, silhouetted against a setting sun. Photo by Kristin Vogt on Pexels: https://www.pexels.com/photo/silhouette-photograph-of-buildings-near-calm-body-of-water-17632/

A 105th Annual Meeting Session Spotlight

By guest author Jacques Gordon, Director, Graaskamp Center for Real Estate, University of Wisconsin-Madison

Editor’s note: The “Panel Discussion in Climate Linked Economics: Navigating Climate Risks and Economic Shifts in Real Estate” takes place today, Monday 13 January, at 4:30 p.m. as part of the New Orleans Forum on Climate Linked Economics at the 105th AMS Annual Meeting.

My apartment in Boston’s Back Bay is just across the Boston Common from the AMS headquarters on Beacon Street.  Yet, when Brock Burghart invited me to speak at the Annual Meeting, I knew very little about the organization—its history, its journals, or its purpose.

In registering for the conference and exploring the AMS website, I reached a number of quick conclusions. 

  • Serious climate scientists and the broader world of weather fanatics all find a home at AMS.
  • The organization is committed to education, research, and networking.
  • I should join.

I have spent the last 40 years working in the field of real estate investment management on behalf of large institutions, like pension plans and sovereign wealth funds. Then, more recently, I joined two universities (MIT and Wisconsin) to help teach the next generation of real estate practitioners. It did not occur to me that the AMS would be a place where I could learn something I wanted to know or contribute something that might be of interest to others. By attending my first meeting, I am hoping to find out if either proposition is true.

My participation is part of the research track entitled “Climate-Linked Economics.”  The panel I will serve on includes a risk management expert from Europe, a data scientist from Utah, and a housing data expert.  

The material I plan to share follows directly from several different experiences that I have had in the investment industry and academia.    

  • Fifteen years ago, I co-founded the climate risk task force at the large investment management firm where I worked. Our goal was to link up the work of our risk management specialists, our portfolio managers, our research teams, and our deal-vetting acquisitions department. After Hurricane Katrina hit New Orleans in 2005, we knew we had to pay attention.
  • Then, when I semi-retired as an “executive in residence” at MIT’s Center for Real Estate, I joined an interdisciplinary seminar with the grand-sounding name “The MIT Joint Program on Global Change.” This group of scientists from the Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Science department also teamed up with economists and social scientists to model the long-term effects of climate change.
  • Finally, I recently moved to the Wisconsin School of Business, to lead its top-ranked real estate program and to make connections with faculty, alumni, and students.  One of my first initiatives was to meet with as many of the alumni of both MIT and Wisconsin in Southern California as I could. We picked Santa Monica as our venue in mid-December of 2024. You can just imagine the dialogue over the past week between our alumni and the owners, developers, and financiers of residential and commercial real estate in this part of the world.

The massive move of American businesses and households to the sunbelt, where higher levels of climate risk are found, along with the increasing cost of insurance, and (most recently) the wildfires sweeping across the LA metro, all shape my views on how real estate and climate change intersect. Here are six take-aways that I plan to share with the AMS membership.

  1. Major weather events are costing property owners, the government, and insurers well over $1 trillion each year in the US. This is roughly equivalent to 4% of the national output of the country. Moreover, this estimate does NOT include the thousands of incidents of smaller (less than $1billion) weather-related damage that occur each year. Nor does it account for the rising cost of insurance—or the loss in a property’s value when insurance coverage is dropped.
  2. Mitigation efforts to reduce the carbon footprint of buildings—both their construction and their operation—are well underway. They vary tremendously—by jurisdiction, by owner and by type of property. In general, serious mitigation is found more frequently in new commercial construction, leaving most of the built environment—both residential and commercial buildings—in catch-up mode.
  3. Adaptation efforts are also well underway. These are vitally important, because climate scientists tell us that even if society could achieve a drastic drop in GHG emissions, more volatile weather is almost certainly already here to stay.  Adaptation efforts can also be expensive and not every owner or jurisdiction will be able to afford them.
  4. In the midst of all this change in the risk profile facing real estate, a data science revolution is going on. There is a gap between the large-scale weather models produced by NOAA and members of the AMS, and the risk analysis needs of the market. Put simply, the need is for micro-analysis of specific locations and different kinds of structures. Data vendors and consulting firms are innovating and putting out new products to meet the demand. Research done by the Urban Land Institute shows how this is a relatively new industry, with many of the unknowns associated with the launch of any forecast model.
  5. Large, well-financed property owners, and many of the world’s largest and wealthiest cities, are already deep into the process of assessing their climate risks and trying to figure out what to do about them. Organizations like the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Federal Reserve are also ramping up their requirements for climate risk disclosures. There is a race going on—to see whether voluntary private sector efforts or government-led regulators are better suited to addressing both mitigation and adaptation challenges.
  6. Whatever side of this public-private divide you fall on, there can be no doubt that climate change raises challenges unlike any experienced in the world before. The temporal and geographic reach of climate risk is unprecedented in the history of humankind. It affects many more realms of human endeavor and the natural world than any prior policy challenge. The built environment is an important place to start tackling these challenges and growing our understanding of what it will take to address mitigation and adaptation simultaneously. Buildings are tangible and right in front of us. We live and work in them every day. We depend on them for leisure, for trade, for culture, and for industry. 

An acknowledgment that real estate is an important part of the climate change puzzle is not without controversy. Some real estate owners say that it’s up to the tenants, not landlords, to change behavior. Transitioning to sustainable energy can compete with other worthy goals—like bringing down the cost of housing or making cities affordable for all kinds of businesses and manufacturing. Some of the most in-demand types of properties—like data centers and life science buildings—consume enormous amounts of energy. And, the developed world still has to reckon with the claims of emerging markets that they should be compensated for their mitigation and adaptation efforts. Yet, as difficult as these problems are, there can be no doubt that real estate construction and operations have to change from “business as usual.” Real estate contributes one third of GHG emissions, globally. In the world’s major cities it contributes close to 70% of all GHG emissions in these metro areas. Alongside other basic economic sectors—including transportation, agriculture, and manufacturing—real estate must re-assess its role in society and how it can be a net contributor to decarbonization instead of a net contributor to global warming.

Photo at top: Buildings on a Boston waterfront. Photo by Kristin Vogt on Pexels.

Gulf Coast Environmental Health and Justice Day at AMS 2025

Effects of sediment at East Timbalier Island, Lafourche Parish, Louisiana, July 2000. Photo credit: NOAA Restoration Center, Erik Zobrist.

A Program Spotlight for the 16th Conference on Environment and Health

On Monday of the AMS 105th Annual Meeting, the 16th Conference on Environment and Health will host a full agenda of special events and sessions on climate justice and community-engaged research, with a special focus on the Gulf Coast. We spoke with symposium co-organizers Julia Kumari-Drapkin (iSeeChange) and Jane W. Baldwin (University of California, Irvine) about environmental health and justice, and what to expect from this special day of locally focused programming. View the full schedule for the Conference on Environment and Health.

Why did you decide to do a program focused on the Gulf Coast?

The Gulf Coast is America’s frontline for environmental health and justice. Tackling the interdisciplinary climate, health, and economic impacts here offers an unparalleled lens to scale critical insights and innovations to the rest of the country and the world.

What happens in the Gulf Coast has national and global implications: Its major ports, supply chains, ecosystems, and communities are integral to the U.S. economy and energy infrastructure. If the five U.S. Gulf states were considered a single country, they would rank 7th globally in GDP. Half of the nation’s petroleum refining, natural gas production, and downstream chemical processing occurs here, and local ports handle trillions of dollars in goods annually. Gulf Coast marine habitats, wetlands, and river systems also sustain fisheries, recreation, and tourism.

Despite these economic riches, Gulf Coast communities face significant disparities in income inequality and health outcomes. Mortality rates from conditions like cancer, COVID-19, heart disease, and diabetes  are much higher compared to the national average, with poverty rates 35% higher and income inequality indices 20% greater as well. Communities along the Houston Shipping Channel, Beaumont, and the river parishes between New Orleans and Baton Rouge—known as “Cancer Alley”—are some of the most concentrated petrochemical zones in the country. Compounding these challenges are increasing climate risks, systemic racism, and environmental injustices, all of which shape the social determinants of health in the region.

What will the program look like?

The day will begin with a keynote address by Dr. Beverley Wright, a pioneer in environmental justice and the executive director of the Deep South Center for Environmental Justice. Her presentation on resilience will explore collaboration models for communities, scientists, and researchers to address environmental health challenges.

Following the keynote, a panel on extreme heat will be led by the City of New Orleans Department of Homeland Security and Emergency Management. This session will examine city-led initiatives, novel energy and housing policies, and community-driven solutions.

In the afternoon, a lunch-hour Town Hall will spotlight environmental justice leaders from the Gulf South. Topics will include industrial pollution, emergency preparedness in petrochemical zones, daily climate impacts on under-resourced communities, and lessons learned 20 years after Hurricane Katrina.

Gulf Coast industry. Left: Shrimp boats in a Louisiana boatyard, May 1997. Photo credit: Lauri Lawson, National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS). Right: Oil and gas drilling rigs anchored off Cameron, Louisiana, winter 2000. Photo credit: Todd Kihle, NOAA/NMFS.

Complementary to these special events, Monday’s research sessions will focus on community-engaged research partnerships. Presentations will discuss heat, health, and flood mitigation and highlight lessons from cities like New Orleans, Houston, Austin, Pittsburgh, Seattle, and Phoenix.

Finally, during the afternoon poster session, an AMS Connections Lounge titled “Climate and Health: Interdisciplinary Connections!” will provide a time and place for individuals across the climate-health research spectrum to network and forge new opportunities for collaboration. Whether you are new to these topics or already deeply engaged, we encourage you to stop by!

Who should attend, and what will they learn?

This programming is designed for atmospheric scientists, community leaders, policymakers, and anyone invested in environmental health and justice. Attendees will gain insights into:

  • Best practices in emergency preparedness, community science, tropical storm management, heat policy, and flood mitigation.
  • The critical importance of collaborating with communities and the medical and health sciences sectors to address climate vulnerability and health impacts.
  • Opportunities to expand research and partnerships that advance environmental justice outcomes.

The Gulf Coast serves as a microcosm for climate-induced challenges and solutions. Its rich experience in managing extreme weather and environmental justice provides valuable lessons for other regions. Attendees will leave with actionable knowledge to foster partnerships and drive innovations, setting the stage for continued collaboration at next year’s AMS meeting in Houston.

Photo at top: Effects of sediment at East Timbalier Island, Lafourche Parish, Louisiana, July 2000. Photo credit: NOAA Restoration Center, Erik Zobrist.

About the AMS 105th Annual Meeting

The American Meteorological Society’s Annual Meeting is the world’s largest annual gathering in the weather, water, and climate spheres, bringing together thousands of scientists, other professionals, and students from across the United States and the world. Taking place 12-16 January, 2025, the AMS 105th Annual Meeting will highlight the latest scientific and professional advances in areas from extreme weather to environmental health, from cloud physics to space weather and more. In addition, cross-cutting interdisciplinary sessions will explore the theme, “Towards a Thriving Planet: Charting the Course Across Scales.” The meeting takes place in New Orleans, Louisiana, at the Ernest N. Morial Convention Center, with online/hybrid participation options. Learn more at annual.ametsoc.org.

AMS 2025 Session Highlight: WRN Asks “What If…?”

Graphic text that says, "WRN (w/20Society & 13WWCE) Asks ... What if ..." Text is in a speech bubble surrounded by cartoon clouds and a phone showing the AMS 105th Annual Meeting and WRN (Weather Ready Nation) logos.

For the third year in a row, the AMS Symposium on Building a Weather-Ready Nation (AMSWRN) will host its highly successful, highly interactive “WRN Asks: What If?” session to kick off its program at the AMS 105th Annual Meeting. “WRN Asks: What If…?” takes place at 8:30 a.m. CT on Monday, 13 January, 2025. We spoke to Trevor Boucher, AMSWRN co-chair, about why this session is unique, and why AMS attendees from all disciplines should take part. To learn more about this session and its origins, read our spotlight post from the 104th Annual Meeting.

Why host an interactive session like this?

Trevor: We want our audience to be interacting and collaborating when they all get in the same room once a year. What are those elephant-in-the-room topics that are larger in scale and scope than a single research project or study? More importantly, what are the implications of those topics? 

Since 2013, AMSWRN has brought together meteorologists and other Weather, Water, and Climate Enterprise partners to discuss efforts in advancing what it means to be “Weather-Ready.” We have hosted oral presentations, posters, panels, town halls, and more. But the Weather Ready Nation initiative is about changing how society looks at the weather every day, and how our nation thinks and responds to the environment around us. We are talking about evolving the entire weather paradigm, which means we really need to engage with our stakeholders. This in turn means we have to ask ourselves three crucial questions when it comes to learning and getting input: are we doing things right? Are we doing the right things? And how do we even know what is right? That is why the WRN Symposium will open with the 3rd iteration of a special, interactive session, “WRN Asks: What If…?” which goes beyond the normal conference formats to really get people thinking and facilitate discussion.

What are your goals for the session?

Trevor: The session design fits into a transformative learning model, which we published in the August 2024 issue of Bulletin of the AMS with the encouragement of Dr. Justin Sharpe, one of our first “What If…” session leaders. We aim to understand the forces shaping our sciences, and explore how the enterprise may evolve depending on what changes and what stays the same.

We hope to achieve two main goals: 1) inspire the audience, especially the students in attendance, to keep the “big-picture” in view and encourage double and triple-loop thinking, and 2) inform our call for papers in future years with special sessions called “What Now?” in which we explicitly solicit abstracts in the realm of the previous year’s “What if…” discussions.

What’s in store for attendees at the 2025 session of “WRN Asks: What If…?”

Trevor: We designed this session as a “reverse panel”, where moderators provide a 3-5 minute “state of the science” with respect to their backgrounds and propose an open-ended, “What if…?” question to the audience. Then their role shifts to moderating audience discussion for the remainder of their time slot. So although you see specific speakers on our agenda, they do the least amount of the speaking. The audience are the true panelists, sharing their opinions, their knowledge, and their concerns about these questions. We also make sure to get as much input as possible from students and early career professionals.

Last year’s session was extremely successful, with 60-80 attendees and very active discussions. This year—because we kept having to cut off the discussions last time around!—we have reduced the number of questions to three, to give each question a little more discussion time during our 90-minute session. We have also partnered with the 20th Symposium on Societal Applications: Policy, Research and Practice and the 13th Symposium on the Weather, Water, and Climate Enterprise as a Joint Session this year. Each participating symposium is contributing one “What if…” question and speaker to the discussions. The questions include:

“What if…we never issued weather warnings?”
Dr. Danielle Nagele (NWS Social Scientist) 

“What if…social media was suddenly banned?”
Devon Lucie (Broadcast Meteorologist, WDSU New Orleans)

“What if…all weather observations didn’t suck?”
Garrett Wheeler (Campbell Scientific)

I’ve been on all our coordination calls and dry runs and we have had to cut short our own conversations each time because we just can’t help but discuss these important questions — and that’s just 6-7 of us. I really think AMS attendees will find it to be an invigorating way to begin their week in New Orleans.

About the AMS 105th Annual Meeting

The American Meteorological Society’s Annual Meeting is the world’s largest annual gathering in the weather, water, and climate spheres, bringing together thousands of scientists, other professionals, and students from across the United States and the world. Taking place 12-16 January, 2025, the AMS 105th Annual Meeting will highlight the latest scientific and professional advances in areas from extreme weather to environmental health, from cloud physics to space weather and more. In addition, cross-cutting interdisciplinary sessions will explore the theme, “Towards a Thriving Planet: Charting the Course Across Scales.” The meeting takes place in New Orleans, Louisiana, at the Ernest N. Morial Convention Center, with online/hybrid participation options. Learn more at annual.ametsoc.org.

Be There: The Gerald A. Meehl Symposium

Highlighting Key Sessions at AMS 2025

A symposium at the 105th Annual Meeting of the American Meteorological Society will honor Gerald (Jerry) Meehl, a nationally and internationally recognized leader in climate dynamics, climate change, climate modeling and Earth system predictability, and present cutting-edge science in his areas of expertise. Meehl is currently a Senior Scientist at the NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), section head of the Climate Change Research Section, and the Principal Investigator/Chief Scientist for the DOE-NCAR Cooperative Agreement To Analyze variabiLity, change and predictabilitY in the earth SysTem (CATALYST) project.

We spoke to Gerald A. Meehl Symposium Co-Chair Aixue Hu, Project Scientist in the Climate and Global Dynamics Lab at NSF NCAR, about the field, Dr. Meehl, and what to expect during the symposium, which takes place Tuesday, 14 January, 2025.

“Jerry is a living, breathing encyclopedia of the history behind the history of climate science.”

–Maria Molina, NSF NCAR/University of Maryland

What can attendees expect from the Symposium?

This symposium will honor Dr. Meehl’s service to the climate research community (including his contributions to the CMIP and IPCC assessment reports); and will highlight the current state of research on climate variability, predictability, and change.

Presentations will discuss topics including extreme events, climate dynamics, marine heat waves, subseasonal to decadal climate prediction and predictability, AI and machine learning in climate research and prediction, and interactions between internal variability and external forcings – along with current modelling efforts and the future directions of model improvements.

Why is this such an important field right now?

The global mean temperature continues to rise, and most of the hottest years on record have appeared in the most recent decade. This change in the mean background climate can result in significant impacts on accurate weather forecasts, and on subseasonal to seasonal to decadal predictions. For example, with a much warmer mean climate, the chance for extreme weather events (heat waves, hurricanes, extreme precipitation) increases. Society benefits from improving our understanding of how this change in mean climate will affect our capability to accurately predict/forecast the weather on shorter timescales, and ENSO and decadal climate modes on longer timescales.  

How would you summarize Jerry Meehl’s impact on the field so far?

Over the years, Jerry has spearheaded several new research directions focused on climate models. For example, his work has greatly advanced our understanding of the global warming slowdown in the early 2000s (the “hiatus”) and explored its predictability. His pioneering 2011 Nature Climate Change paper on this topic was named one of the five most influential papers in the first five years of Nature Climate Change (2016). His work has also been crucial to the study of extreme temperature events, monsoons, and decadal climate variability and predictability.

Jerry chaired the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) Panel under the World Climate Research Program (WCRP) from 1997 to 2007. He led the formulation of the CMIP1 through CMIP3 projects and continued to serve on the panel as it formulated CMIP5 and 6. CMIP1-3 provided the physical science foundation for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) AR3 and AR4 reports.

A historic workshop held at Scripps in 1994 convened the global coupled modeling community to help formulate CMIP; Meehl is pictured second from left, in the second row from the bottom; also pictured: Ron Stouffer (4th from left), Karl Taylor (5th from left), Ben Santer 6th from left. Photo courtesy of Gerald Meehl.

Dr. Meehl also chaired the WCRP Working Group on Coupled Models (2004-2013) and the National Academy of Sciences/National Research Council Climate Research Committee (2008-2011), among other prominent national and international committees. He was a contributing, coordinating, or lead author for the IPCC AR1-AR5 reports, and a member of the IPCC science team that was awarded the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize.

Photo: Author team for Chapter 10, “Global Climate Projections,” IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4), Christchurch, NZ, 2005; coordinating lead authors Jerry Meehl and Thomas Stocker are center back. Photo courtesy of Jerry Meehl.

The AMS has recognized Jerry’s scientific contributions to, and leadership in, climate research, awarding him the Jule G. Charney Award in 2009 “for outstanding collaborative contributions to modeling climate and its response to anthropogenic and natural forcings” and the Sverdrup Gold Medal in 2023 “for seminal work integrating observations, models, and theory to understand variability and change in the ocean and atmosphere.” He is also a fellow of AMS since 2006, and of AGU since 2014. He has also been recognized by organizations including Reuters and Web of Science as an influential and very highly cited researcher.

Left photo: Jerry Meehl and Warren Washington awarded the AMS Charney Award, in Phoenix, AZ (2009). Right photo: Group photo of participants in the Warren Washington Symposium at AMS, January 2010, convened by Dave Bader and Jerry Meehl; the only time that “legends of climate modeling” Suki Manabe, Larry Gates, Warren Washington, and Jim Hansen attended the same meeting at the same time. From left:  Kirk Bryan, Suki Manabe, Jerry, Greg Jenkins, Larry Gates, Jane Lubchenco, Steve Schneider, Dave Bader, Warren Washington, John Kutzbach, V. Ramanathan, Jim Hansen, Bert Semtner. Photo credits: American Meteorological Society.

Even as a world famous climate scientist, Jerry is very approachable. He makes himself available to young scientists and gives them unselfish guidance and support. When Jerry was leading the CMIP effort and was lead author for the IPCC assessment reports, his communication skills helped move the CMIP effort forward, and he navigated through differences among lead authors smoothly. Jerry is not only a great scientist, but also a great mentor, communicator, and writer. He has worked with numerous graduate students, post-docs, and junior researchers and left significant impacts on their careers. That includes being my own mentor and role model for over 20 years! 

It might be a surprise to many people, especially the early career scientists, that Jerry is also a writer. He has authored and co-authored six books that grew out of his personal interests in World War II, especially in the Pacific theater. His ability to communicate and relate to others shines through no matter what he does!

The Gerald A. Meehl Symposium will be held Tuesday, 14 January, 2025 at the AMS 105th Annual Meeting, in New Orleans, LA, and online. Learn more about the Symposium and view the program.

“Weather in Action”: Training Meteorology Students to Chase Storms

Photo "Walsh Mothership" by Michael Seger shows a rounded storm from a distance at twilight, with a lightning flash in the sky in the foreground. The photo was voted Member's Choice in the 2023 AMS Weather Band Photo Contest.

A Session Spotlight for the 24th Annual AMS Student Conference

This January, the 24th Annual Student Conference will host the first storm chasing training ever held at an AMS meeting! Jennifer Walton of AMS partner organization Girls Who Chase (GWC) and Robin Tanamachi of Purdue University (currently on sabbatical with UCAR COMET/MetEd), will teach Student Conference participants skills and strategies for more safely experiencing “meteorology in action.” We spoke with Jen Walton about what to expect, and what meteorologists and other scientists should know about storm chasing!

What should Student Conference attendees expect from this storm chasing training? Why is this a good venue for such a training?

Given the release of “Twisters” in July 2024, and knowing how many folks were inspired by the release of the original Twister movie in 1996, the conference organizers felt it was fair to expect a significant increase in people storm chasing (and likely also new meteorology students!). Some new chasers are likely to be meteorology undergraduate and graduate students attending the student conference. We want to get ahead of this rush — and encourage future meteorologists to get out into the field and see meteorological processes in person. GWC now has a reputation for offering accessible, entry-level storm chasing education programming via our annual Spring Training event, held in partnership with COMET’s MetEd program, so we were an obvious candidate for the job.

Given the strong interest in storm chasing over the decades and the potential for a spike in new chasers, GWC and AMS can contribute to the development of a more safety- and education-minded population of chasers by creating accessible educational resources and fostering a welcoming, inclusive community. This training is part of that conscious endeavor. 

Learning to storm chase involves the development of several additional, important skill sets that don’t directly translate out of what folks learn from a meteorology degree. As we all know, when it comes to weather, things don’t always work out the way we think they will, and no two storms will behave exactly the same way because of constantly evolving environmental factors.  So even if you have a solid atmospheric science background, it’s helpful to pair an understanding of forecasting with other skills. For example, topics such as translating radar to reality, chase strategy and positioning, safety planning and strategy, and knowing how to prepare for a day in the field are all useful for a budding chaser. Those things definitely take more than a couple of hours to learn about, so this training will be more of a “learn how and where to get started” course, with some clear actionable next steps for those who want to continue their learning journey. And of course, we’ll have some fun stories and videos to share.

Why would atmospheric scientists want to chase storms?

I like to quote Ginger Zee on this one, because she’s a longtime storm chaser who is a big proponent of meteorologists experiencing severe weather firsthand. From her perspective, storm chasing really drives home a deeper understanding of severe weather and the dynamics at play during a severe event. It can also ultimately help meteorologists better communicate with their audience, when relevant, because they have actually experienced some of what they are forecasting firsthand. 

I think there is much to be gained from getting outside for a day or more — seeing weather in action really fills in the gaps when it comes to understanding how various processes take place. For example, storms might look structurally similar on radar, but every storm is completely unique in some way. The only way to fully understand that is through experience. Even if folks have no plans to include field work in their future endeavors, understanding how severe weather can evolve, seeing it with your own eyes, and even perhaps witnessing some of the impacts it can have on people and property can more fully develop a new meteorologist. Some folks have made career decisions, like pairing emergency management or public health with meteorology, based on their personal experiences in the field. You just never know.

How did you get into storm chasing, and what made you want to teach others?

I’ve had a 20-year career in environmental and climate communication, but always assumed chasing wasn’t for me — until one day I decided that was silly because I’ve always been pretty obsessed with severe weather. I finally sent myself on a storm chasing tour in 2018 to check it out. I saw my first tornado on my own shortly after that, 45 minutes from my home in Colorado, and the rest is history. I spent the following several years studying forecasting, learning via making lots of mistakes chasing on my own, and discovering the very real joy of witnessing some truly incredible stuff.

The creation and evolution of GWC is rooted in that journey. Due to my background, I had the wherewithal and tenacity to find the people and resources I needed to learn to chase, but it wasn’t easy, and there was very little training available. My storm chasing tour folks gave me the basics and I continued on my own from there. It seemed like a no brainer to start pushing out resource listings and soon, trainings, via GWC. Our attendance at Spring Training in 2023, our first year, blew me away, and then we nearly doubled that number in 2024. 

I’m excited to continue to expand this type of education into different weather circles, and even more excited to bring it to AMS!

Why is increasing accessibility and diversity in weather and storm chasing so important right now?

There’s clearly interest in learning about chasing and severe weather, and I think a bit of a hunger for learning in safe, welcoming environments. The sciences don’t always seem terribly open to a general enthusiast, yet weather affects literally everyone on the planet. It’s crucial that people understand the basics of how to keep themselves and their loved ones safe, especially as the frequency and intensity of severe weather events continue to increase globally. Now is not the time for people to feel like they aren’t welcome in a learning environment, no matter their gender, ethnicity, background or knowledge level. 

Does GWC offer other resources for people interested in storm chasing safely?

If folks would like to take the next step after the student conference training — or aren’t attending the Student Conference — I certainly encourage them to check out our library of free learning resources we maintain on the Girls Who Chase Education page. And if active training is more someone’s style, definitely check out Spring Training 2025, a one-day, virtual, affordable training event that offers in-depth foundational, operational and accessible information and training material for storm chasers at all levels, and the chance to speak with experts in the field. We record every Spring Training event as well, to create a library of resources people can use to start learning anytime!

Learn more about this training, and about the AMS Student Conference!

Photo at top: Photo “Walsh Mothership,” by Michael Seger, won Member’s Choice in the 2023 AMS Weather Band Photo Contest.

Be There: The Heather Lazrus Symposium

Highlighting Key Sessions at AMS 2025

How can the scientific enterprise be improved by including Indigenous knowledge systems and scientific methodologies? How can we better support Indigenous researchers? How can other researchers cultivate respectful and fruitful relationships with Indigenous communities to improve the actionable, cultural and societal relevance of scientific efforts and environmental adaptation?

Since 2010, sessions and symposia at the AMS Annual Meeting have highlighted the importance of recognizing and respecting Indigenous science and knowledge systems within our geoscience communities. Dr. Heather Lazrus, co-founder of the Rising Voices Center for Indigenous and Earth Sciences, was a key force behind these initiatives. To honor Lazrus, who passed on from cancer in February 2023, the 105th Annual Meeting will host the AMS 2025 Heather Lazrus Symposium, “Convergence Science: Indigenous Weather, Water and Climate Knowledge, Systems, Practices and Communities.”

“The urgent threat posed by our climate crisis necessitates innovative actions. Innovation is an opportunity to look beyond Earth sciences to solutions in other knowledge systems and, in doing so, to support the rising voices of those who have been historically marginalized.” 
– Lazrus et al., 2022

What is Convergence Science?

As Symposium co-host Julie Maldonado and colleagues write in an upcoming paper, convergence science “brings together diverse disciplines, cultures, knowledge systems, and ways of knowing and understanding to solve complex problems that cannot be addressed by a single discipline or knowledge-system alone.” The term “convergence science” is often used in the context of bringing together physical, biological, and social sciences; recognizing Indigenous perspectives further emphasizes the artificial nature of boundaries between sciences and ways of knowing. The Rising Voices, Changing Coasts Hub notes that convergence science asserts “the deep relationality of life, of the planet, of mother earth, of the affirmation that we are all related.”

Honoring a Life of Justice and Leadership

Lazrus, a noted environmental anthropologist, made important strides to strengthen collaborations among Indigenous communities and researchers around climate and environmental change. She co-founded and co-directed the Rising Voices Center for Indigenous and Earth Sciences at the U.S. National Science Foundation’s National Center for Atmospheric Research and was co-principal investigator of the NSF-funded Rising Voices, Changing Coasts: The National Indigenous and Earth Sciences Convergence Hub (RVCC Hub) project.

(Image: Attendees at the 7th Annual Rising Voices Workshop, held in 2019 at NSF NCAR in Boulder, CO. Photo courtesy of the Rising Voices Center.)

Lazrus was a beloved kin in many communities, who navigated complex discussions and relationships with skill to foster respectful and meaningful relationships. Author of more than 100 research articles, book chapters, influential reports, and more, Lazrus was one of the most cited experts in her field. Yet she was also known for her humility and willingness to engage in important work behind the scenes.

As her colleagues Julie Maldonado, Elizabeth Marino, Shannon McNeeley, and Courtney Carothers wrote in their tribute to her for the Society for Applied Anthropology, “Heather … was a mother, partner, friend, scholar, adventurer, social justice advocate, scientist, matchmaker, and intellectual, involved in the creation of many relationships, ideas, and movements …”

“She was a trailblazer among scientists centering culture and equity in the study of the lived experiences of climate change. She was also an early advocate for decolonized pedagogy and research.”

(Image: Lazrus at the 4th Annual Rising Voices Workshop, held in 2016 on Hawai‘i Island. Photo courtesy of the Rising Voices Center.)

“She fought always for what is right. She was funny. She led with her heart. She believed that the world could become a better place. … We believe she is still close to the work she leaves behind, and close to the circle of people and all relations that will carry her legacy forward.”

What to Expect from the Symposium

The Lazrus Symposium will host a Presidential Session with the RVCC’s’ Louisiana Hub, in which local Tribal leaders, elders, and partnering scientists share their stories of weaving together Indigenous and other science knowledge for place-based convergence science and community adaptation. 

The Symposium will also include presentations from early career Indigenous scholars on emerging Indigenous innovations related to weather, water, and climate. For example, sharing ideas focused on Indigenous-led systems change and capacity sharing for community resilience, salt marsh restoration as climate mitigation, convergent research for climate adaptation and supporting subsistence harvests, and biocultural approaches to mitigate fire risk. A luncheon will be held in honor of Lazrus, featuring a special screening of “Everything Has a Spirit” and a conversation with filmmaker Ava Hamilton (Arapaho). In addition, the program includes discussions on how to improve scientific partnerships among federal agencies and Tribal governments and communities, and presentations by Indigenous scientists on fostering intercultural dialogue and respectful engagement.

“Whether you have long been engaged in convergence science or intercultural collaborations or you are learning about these ideas for the first time, this space is for you,” note the session organizers. “We welcome the AMS community into this ongoing conversation to co-create culturally relevant and actionable scientific knowledge and actions that increase climate resilience and support healthy, thriving communities today and for future generations.”

The Heather Lazrus Symposium will be held Monday, 13 January, 2025 at the AMS 105th Annual Meeting, in New Orleans, LA, and online; it will feature invited presentations along with a special luncheon. Learn more about the Symposium and view the program.

Special thanks to the Symposium Organizing Committee: Julie Maldonado (Livelihoods Knowledge Exchange Network); Stephanie Herring (NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information); Eileen Shea (Rising Voices); Diamond Tachera (NSF NCAR); Katie Jones (NEON | Battelle); Robbie Hood (Blue Thunderbird LLC); Tim Schneider (NSF NCAR Research Applications Laboratory); Jen Henderson (Texas Tech University); Carlos Martinez (NSF).

Community Modeling and the Future of Numerical Weather Prediction

A 2024 AMS Summer Community Meeting highlight

The AMS Weather Enterprise Study will provide a comprehensive picture of the shifting landscape of weather-related fields to inform our joint future. At the 2024 Summer Community Meeting, working groups discussed what they’d found about key issues facing the enterprise.

Here are a few takeaways from the Community Modeling working group, as reported by Gretchen Mullendore of the NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). Community modeling employs Earth system model software developed by public-academic partnerships. Community models have open-source components and are freely available for use by anyone with the computing power to run them–for example researchers, students, and private companies.

Photo: Gretchen Mullendore

How has the community modeling landscape changed in recent years, and where are we now?

First, artificial intelligence and machine learning (AI/ML) have become huge players in numerical weather prediction (NWP) model development. Second, a cultural change in weather research and forecasting is taking place; we’re beginning to collaborate much more closely across agencies and industries than we used to, and many people are invested in deepening those collaborations.

What were the main themes that came out of your working group’s discussions?

The NWP community is collaborating more than ever before. However, the community remains spread among many institutions, with each research group working on small pieces of the overall weather prediction challenge. Having many research groups can be a strength in terms of encouraging innovation, but it is a weakness if research isn’t coordinated effectively to fully realize collective benefits. Limited funding and resourcing is an additional barrier to community model development. As a community, we need to continue to prioritize modularity and interoperability across NWP systems and work towards more effective shared governance.

Another major theme is the role of the private sector in NWP. Big tech companies are increasingly getting into NWP and there is a concern that public forecasting efforts are not able to keep pace. The private sector brings agility and innovation to the field, and working to leverage unique contributions across public, academic, and private research entities is valuable. However, if the growing role of the private sector in NWP leads to more observations, simulations, and software being behind proprietary walls, there is risk to accessibility and collaboration.

The NWP community is also facing challenges in workforce development. Universities are teaching people the right skills to work in data assimilation and analytics, but many of those people are being scooped up by private sector companies in other fields offering salaries that employers in the weather industry cannot compete with. We need to better communicate the value of our missions and our work to attract and retain talented early career professionals.

What preliminary recommendations or future directions have you discussed?

We can and should continue to build on community efforts to coordinate across public, academic, and private developers. This coordination should include planning for the appropriate use of AI/ML tools in NWP research and applications. We can also build on efforts to leverage social science research to prioritize our limited resources, e.g., by learning what type of forecasting improvements will most benefit stakeholders. Finally, we need to recognize the importance of the legislature in resourcing model development. It’s important to communicate our successes and the value of a thriving NWP community. In summary, we should strategize to develop intentional communication among ourselves, across disciplines, and most importantly, with legislatures and the public.

What did you hear from the community at the Summer Community Meeting?

My pick for the most important question asked at the SCM is, “What does success look like in NWP development?” The goal that motivates us all in the NWP community is for no more deaths to occur as a result of weather hazards. In order to achieve breakthroughs in prediction that stand to move us closer to that goal, we need to invest in innovation, which requires risk. However, much of the work in NWP development is funded by federal agencies, which tend to be risk-averse. More broadly, the systems in which our scientists work can be an impediment to innovation. For example, the pressure to publish often incentivizes incremental progress over new ideas. Collectively, as an NWP community, we need to build systems that allow researchers to take risks without fear of failure or negative consequences.

What are the main challenges, conflicts, or points of discussion identified by the group (or at the SCM)?

AI/ML could possibly improve the skill and speed of all parts of the NWP system. That said, the challenges are also great. Challenges include a lack of AI/ML expertise in NWP community leadership; a need to invest in AI/ML without additional resources; and a need to keep up with the latest AI/ML research, which is moving incredibly rapidly. The lack of clear AI/ML plans from U.S. institutional leaders in NWP led some to ask at the SCM if leaders were skewed against it. My perception is instead that the community is feeling overwhelmed by these challenges. We can overcome these challenges through innovation and collaboration, leveraging our respective expertise and investments to more efficiently take advantage of the great opportunity that is AI/ML in NWP.

Want to join a Weather Enterprise Study working group? Email [email protected].

About the Weather Enterprise Study

The AMS Policy Program, working closely with the volunteer leadership of the Commission on the Weather, Water, and Climate Enterprise, is conducting a two-year effort (2023-2025) to assess how well the weather enterprise is performing, and to potentially develop new recommendations for how it might serve the public even better. Learn more here, give us your input via Google Forms, or get involved by contacting [email protected].  

About the AMS Summer Community Meeting

The AMS Summer Community Meeting (SCM) is a special time for professionals from academia, industry, government, and NGOs to come together to discuss broader strategic priorities, identify challenges to be addressed and opportunities to collaborate, and share points of view on pressing topics. The SCM provides a unique, informal setting for constructive deliberation of current issues and development of a shared vision for the future. The 2024 Summer Community Meeting took place August 5-6 in Washington, DC, and focused special attention on the Weather Enterprise, with opportunities for the entire community to learn about, discuss, debate, and extend some of the preliminary findings coming from the AMS Weather Enterprise Study.

What’s the Future of Weather Decision-Making?

A 2024 AMS Summer Community Meeting highlight

Matt Corey

The AMS Summer Community Meeting drew exceptional attendance and engagement this year as people across sectors helped inform an upcoming report on the Weather Enterprise. The AMS Weather Enterprise Study will provide a comprehensive picture of the shifting landscape of weather-related fields to inform our joint future. At the 2024 SCM, working groups discussed what they’d found about key issues facing the enterprise, and asked for feedback from the community.

Here are a few takeaways from the Decision Support Services working group, as reported by Matt Corey (pictured at left) of Microsoft Weather. Decision support services (DSS) help stakeholders make weather-related decisions that are informed by the best available knowledge across fields. They are crucial for emergency managers and many other decision makers, as well as members of the public.

How has the decision support landscape shifted in the last decade or so?

Stakeholders for DSS range from an emergency manager making critical decisions about an entire community to an everyday citizen making a decision for themselves or their family. For decision support services, the last two decades have seen an abundance of technology changes which have allowed stakeholders easier access to information. However, this can be both a benefit and a challenge, as misinformation has also become more readily available.

What were the main themes that came out of your working group’s discussions?

The themes that emerged for us included:

  • The different sectors of the Weather Enterprise have become coupled, with less well-defined boundaries when it comes to providing decision support.
  • New players are entering the enterprise, with growing AI and novel ideas.
  • Developing and maintaining the necessary workforce is a concern.
  • There are increased opportunities for translating forecasts into easily understood language in order to support decisions.
  • There is a need for increased funding for quality observational datasets for many applications, especially in AI.
  • In a complex, misinformation-rich environment, there is still room for all sectors to tailor communications to stakeholders, but there is also concern about maintaining consistency in order to maintain trust.
  • Embracing user centric design to understand stakeholder concerns, technical levels, and understanding is important, including the use of probabilistic information.  Example:  “There is an 80% chance the flooding will happen this afternoon.”

What are the main challenges you have identified?

In our group, the discussion continues to be about who should be providing decision support services. As the NWS gets more involved in DSS, one concern is for increased friction from some private sector entities. Another key point is that DSS is not limited to a specific stakeholder type. DSS is important to all citizens who need to make decisions involving weather every day, thus there is a shared dimension and need for responsible and clear messaging to all stakeholders (including the tactical use of probabilistic information). 

A final recurring theme is around the workforce itself. Forecasters need to be taught communication skills, and social science is critical in helping to understand the needs and problems to be solved for the end users. With the focus shifting to newer tools including AI-infused capabilities, there is a concern that the new workforce will lose the necessary skills critical in conveying adequate decision support services.

What preliminary/tentative recommendations, solutions, or future directions have you discussed?

Some of the recommendations we’re working with right now focus on:

  • Integration of weather, water, and climate information with socioeconomic and biosphere information for earth system forecasts.
  • Cross-sector support of ecological forecasts and environmental early warning systems (for example, warnings of fishing industry impacts due to warmer water) to benefit society and facilitate impact-based action.
  • Improved communication about weather impacts, especially in a changing climate, using common terms and learnings based on stakeholder’s decision needs.
  • Embracing AI as a way to increase the velocity of forecasts, integrate probabilistic information into forecasts, and increase efficiency for both short-term services like nowcasting and long-term climate solutions for all.
  • Helping meteorologists to become the communicators that they should be. Leveraging AI solutions and tools to help make them more efficient at helping stakeholders with their decisions.
  • Expanding opportunities for smaller businesses/individuals to obtain specialized DSS.
  • Increased public awareness of changing weather patterns stimulating the need for better accuracy, earlier warnings, and long-range projections.
  • The need to smartly integrate probabilistic information to help stakeholders better understand forecasts and limitations.

Want to join a Weather Enterprise Study working group? Email [email protected].

About the Weather Enterprise Study

The AMS Policy Program, working closely with the volunteer leadership of the Commission on the Weather, Water, and Climate Enterprise, is conducting a two-year effort (2023-2025) to assess how well the weather enterprise is performing, and to potentially develop new recommendations for how it might serve the public even better. Learn more here, give us your input via Google Forms, or get involved by contacting [email protected].  

About the AMS Summer Community Meeting

The AMS Summer Community Meeting (SCM) is a special time for professionals from academia, industry, government, and NGOs to come together to discuss broader strategic priorities, identify challenges to be addressed and opportunities to collaborate, and share points of view on pressing topics. The SCM provides a unique, informal setting for constructive deliberation of current issues and development of a shared vision for the future. The 2024 Summer Community Meeting took place August 5-6 in Washington, DC, and focused special attention on the Weather Enterprise, with opportunities for the entire community to learn about, discuss, debate, and extend some of the preliminary findings coming from the AMS Weather Enterprise Study.

Tornado Risks: Perceptions and Realities

A session spotlight from the 31st Conference on Severe Local Storms

By Katie Pflaumer, AMS Staff

The session “Perception and Risk Associated with Severe Weather” at the 31st Conference on Severe Local Storms highlighted the interactions between severe weather and societal impacts. Here are a few takeaways.

Tornado impacts are increasing across the United States–despite variation in where tornadoes hit. A presentation by Stephen Strader (Villanova University) highlighted the importance of considering all factors to understand tornado impacts, not just climate. Using 40 years of observational data, plus a statistical model depicting changes in societal factors, researchers found that increased housing and population growth in tornado-prone areas is a key driver of increased tornado damage/human risk. 

While the number of days with tornadoes is trending down in the U.S. Southern Plains and trending upward in the mid-South; the likelihood of tornado damage has increased in both regions due to increased human occupation. However, the combination of tornado increases with population growth and spread has tripled tornado impact potential in the mid-South since 1980, surpassing the Southern Plains. Strader noted that stricter enforcement of building codes, investments in tornado shelters and safe rooms, and public education could help mitigate tornado damages–if scientists can get across the message that human factors matter.


“We have to get away from this idea that climate change is a cause of a disaster … climate change is a contributor to a disaster, not a cause. [Disaster] is inherently linked to societal factors. … With environmental changes and exposure changes/housing growth, you see an increasingly disaster-prone society.”

—Stephen Strader

Graphic from: Strader, S.M., Gensini, V.A., Ashley, W.S., and A.N. Wagner (2024) “Changing Tornado Environments Vs. Changing Societal Vulnerability and Exposure.” (Poster presented at 31st Conference on Severe Local Storms, October 21.) Originally from Strader et al. (2024), “Changes in tornado risk and societal vulnerability leading to greater tornado impact potential.” NPJ Natural Hazards, 19 June. https://doi.org/10.1038/s44304-024-00019-6

Wireless Emergency Alerts are critical—and confusing—for Spanish speakers in the U.S. Southeast. A study presented by Joseph Trujillo-Falcón (University of Illinois) found that Spanish-language wireless emergency alerts (WEAs, phone notifications about severe weather) from the National Weather Service are crucial safety tools. For some tornado survivors in Kentucky, for example, the WEA had been their only trigger to get to safety. In-depth conversations with 27 Spanish speakers from across the U.S. found that WEAs were highly respected and useful, yet needed some redesign to avoid confusion. For example, the Spanish translation of the NWS acronym (SNM) called to mind medical conditions or kink. The word “proyectiles” (projectiles), used to warn about airborne debris, evoked war zone imagery rather than weather. Using the word “aviso” for “warning” struck many as less urgent than the term “alerta.” In addition, 360-word warnings (versus those of 90 words or less) helped readers better understand what was going on and what to do in response. This was especially important for people who hadn’t encountered a tornado in their country of origin. Direct links to information and instructions on how and where to shelter were also seen as key, especially in areas with many mobile or manufactured homes.

“The information source that I take most seriously as a recently arrived immigrant are WEAs. Since everyone gets it at the same time, if one ignores it, the other reads it.”

—Gabriela, Venezuelan immigrant who has limited English proficiency (Trujillo-Falcón 2024).

People want different forecast information as a threat evolves. A study presented by Makenzie Krocak (National Severe Storms Laboratory) analyzed data from the Severe Weather and Society survey to determine what information members of the public want and need at different times in relation to weather threats. They found that respondents’ priorities changed over time. In longer time frames (e.g., three days in advance) survey respondents overwhelmingly ranked location information and event probability as the most valuable information; people wanted to know, ‘Should I prepare for severe weather to occur in my area?’ A day to an hour in advance, people wanted to know about the timing of the event, as well as its potential severity. In the warning time frame (60 minutes or less) their desire for information about potential impacts and necessary protective actions increased.

For additional insight, the researchers painstakingly categorized, geo-located, and analyzed 9000+ social media comments from the National Weather Service Facebook and Twitter/X accounts before and after severe weather events. A poster presented by undergraduate student Emily Allen (University of Louisiana Monroe) delved into this side of the equation.

Emily Allen with her poster, “Assessing Public Information Needs Leading Up to Severe Weather Events.” (E.A. Allen and M. Krocak, 2024)

Three days out from an event, commenters largely asked about the chance of an event happening, but for nearer time frames, location became the dominant question—i.e., ‘Will this hit my specific area?’ Krocak emphasized the need to include very clear landmarks in warning graphics to help people find their location. She also noted that certain groups still require information about protective actions to take—especially those with the least experience dealing with a particular hazard.

Making severe weather products usable and understandable. Two presentations dealt with public perceptions of evolving probabilistic weather forecast information—that is, communicating changes in severe weather risks across time and geography. 

Christopher Wirz (NSF NCAR) presented preliminary results of a study about public perceptions of evolving probabilistic tornado forecasts and warnings. On average, respondents’ sense of risk was about the same as for a deterministic (e.g., warning vs no-warning) forecast; most were likely to be on high alert during a tornado warning in any case, and not underestimate their risk. However, there were differences in how participants responded based on where they were located relative to a given warning polygon. For example, some felt they were in more danger if they were ‘in front’ of the warning polygon, despite the graphics showing equal tornado risk in other directions. Warn-on forecasts—alerts issued when a significant risk is predicted, often long before a tornado is detected by radar—were seen as less actionable by some, but others appreciated knowing to ‘keep an eye out.’ Overall, the study found that members of the public don’t take probabilistic information at face value—rather, they interpret it based on context, including existing local knowledge and other warning products they encounter. In addition, for half of the respondents, level of trust in a forecast didn’t change when they received more/updated information, because trust was instead based on how much they trusted the source of the forecast.

Kristin Calhoun (NOAA National Severe Storms Laboratory) presented about new products and communications that are in development to help NWS forecasters and emergency managers use storm-based probabilistic hazard information (PHI) in the severe weather watch-warning timeframe. These included PHI tools layered with threats-in-motion (TIM) information, in which warning polygons are moved (and removed) with the motion of the storm, helping downstream areas prepare sooner and allowing those for whom danger has passed to redeploy their resources more strategically; potential new protocols for the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center, rather than local weather forecast offices, to add or remove an area from a watch/warning once the threat has passed; a blended PHI plus warn-on forecast product that can help emergency managers plan better by seeing storms in motion along with trends in likelihood and potential impact; and a new product based on SPC’s ‘Mesoscale Discussions,’ created by local NWS forecasters and called ‘Local Discussions,’ with an increased focus on potential impacts, timing, and location of hazards versus highly technical information.

Photo: National Severe Storms Laboratory, Watch-to-Warning Experiment.

Social pressure may impact campus tornado safety. Alicia Klees (University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign) presented work conducted largely by undergraduate student Kyla Wolski that has implications for student safety. The University of Illinois’s Illini-Alert system warns students when tornado threats are approaching; most students are aware of the alerts, and most have experienced a tornado warning before. Students were asked in a survey what they would do if they were in a vulnerable location—such as a fourth-floor classroom with glass windows—and received a tornado warning. 75% said they would change their location to seek shelter. However, when a hypothetical professor kept teaching through a tornado warning (as some faculty reportedly did during the last real tornado warning on campus), 22% of students who had planned to seek shelter said they would probably stay in class. These students said they trusted the professor’s judgment—yet professors do not receive extensive formal training on tornado safety. Klees recalled an anecdote from a student in which one faculty member remarked, “I don’t hear the sirens anymore, so it’s fine.”

In addition, most students did not view tornadoes as a major risk, and most were unaware that tornadoes could happen at any time of year. Klees identified future collaborations with Emergency Management to survey faculty and TAs on tornado warning response, with the goal of keeping students safe.

If you are registered for the 31st Conference on Severe Local Storms, you can view the full session recording at this link.

About the 31st Conference on Severe Local Storms

The American Meteorological Society’s 31st Conference on Severe Local Storms takes place 21-25 October, 2024, in Virginia Beach, VA, and online. The conference is the premiere gathering for scientists, forecasters, educators, and communicators engaged in all aspects of work related to hazardous deep convective weather phenomena. Attendees present and discuss cutting-edge research regarding the analysis, prediction, communication, and theoretical understanding of the structure and dynamics of severe thunderstorms, including their associated hazards of tornadoes, damaging winds, large hail, lightning, and flash floods. View the conference program here.

Can Decarbonizing the Electric Grid Help Avert Climate Catastrophe?

Photo by Harry Cunningham @harry.digital: https://www.pexels.com/photo/photo-of-wind-turbines-under-cloudy-sky-3619870/

A Presidential Session Spotlight from the AMS 104th Annual Meeting

By Katie Pflaumer, AMS Staff

Significantly reducing greenhouse gas emissions requires transitioning primarily to carbon-free sources for energy generation, but many challenges stand in the way. What are these challenges, and how can the weather, water, and climate sector help meet them?

A Presidential Session at the 104th AMS Annual Meeting addressed those questions with panelists Debbie Lew (Executive Director at ESIG, the Energy Systems Integration Group), Alexander “Sandy” MacDonald (former AMS President and former director of the NOAA Earth Systems Research Laboratory), Aidan Tuohy (Director of Transmission Operations and Planning at EPRI, the Electric Power Research Institute), and Justin Sharp (then Owner and Principal of Sharply Focused, now Technical Leader in the Transmission and Operations Planning team at EPRI). Here are some key points that arose from the session, titled, “Transition to Carbon-Free Energy Generation,” introduced by NSF NCAR’s Jared Lee, and moderated by MESO, Inc.’s John Zack.

Key Points

  • Decarbonizing the electric grid is key to reducing U.S. greenhouse gas emissions.
  • Wind and solar are now the cheapest forms of energy generation; adoption is increasing, but not fast enough to catch up with the likely growth in demand. 
  • Energy demand is rapidly increasing, driven by the expansion of data centers, AI applications, crypto mining, and the electrification of transportation and heating. Hydrogen production might greatly increase future loads. 
  • “Massive buildouts” of both renewable energy plants AND transmission infrastructure are required to reduce emissions. 
  • A reliable and affordable power system with large shares of wind and solar generation requires accurate historical weather information to inform infrastructure buildout, and accurate forecasts to support operations. 
  • To avoid expensive infrastructure that’s only used during peak times, electricity pricing must incentivize consumers to avoid excessive use during periods of high demand. This requires accurate weather forecasting. 
  • Connecting the three main national grids together into a “supergrid” could improve transmission and grid flexibility, significantly reducing emissions.

The need for carbon-free energy is urgent

Greenhouse gas emissions are still increasing sharply. In response, global temperatures are rising faster than even the most pessimistic models would have predicted a few decades ago, noted Lee in his introductory remarks to the panel. The U.S. is the second largest global carbon emitter, despite having a much smaller population than the other top emitters, China and India.

If we don’t solve the greenhouse gas problem by mid-century, warned MacDonald, we will soon hit 700 ppm of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. If that happens, “We’re back to the Miocene era,” he said, referencing an exceptionally hot period around 12.5 million years ago. “Northern Hemisphere land temperatures will be 11 degrees Fahrenheit warmer. Arctic temps will be 17°F warmer, which is probably going to launch a huge permafrost thaw … The ocean will be 80% more acidic. So we are in an urgent situation.”

What’s the path to a more sustainable future? Decarbonizing the grid.

The energy sector is one of the top sources of U.S. emissions—and reducing emissions there will have knock-on effects in buildings and transportation. Lee noted that wind and solar power have dropped dramatically in price, becoming the cheapest forms of energy generation available. This has led to an increase in adoption: renewables are now second only to natural gas in terms of electrical power generated in the United States. Yet natural gas is still growing fast, and still far exceeds the use of renewables.

Therefore, Lew said in her talk, we need “massive buildouts of [wind, solar, and battery] resources … doubling or even tripling the amount of installed capacity. We’re going to be electrifying buildings, transportation, industry [and] massively building out transmission and distribution networks … And we’re going to be using fossil fuel generators for reliability needs.” Doing this could get us to 80-90% fossil-free energy production.

Bridging the gap

But what about that last 10–20%?

“We need some kind of cost-effective, clean, firm resource” to fill in the gaps and act as a bridge fuel—a resource that’s available 24/7 no matter the weather or season—said Lew. This resource might end up being hydrogen, advanced nuclear energy, or even green bioenergy with carbon capture and sequestration to offset emissions from natural gas. “We need all options on the table.”

Weather? Or not?

Trying to transition to renewables without incorporating reliability and resilience will lead to blackouts and power outages, Tuohy noted. These would have major economic consequences and reduce the political viability of renewables, as well as leading to unjust allocation of energy.

A resilient grid, he said, requires enough energy production to meet future demand; adequate transmission and delivery infrastructure to meet future needs and to balance supply with demand moment-to-moment every day; reliability despite constant shifts in energy production; and the ability to prevent a problem in one place from causing cascading outages across the system. 

Making a new, wind- and solar-dependent grid truly work means balancing—and forecasting—energy availability and demand across the nation, accounting for the current and predicted weather at each solar and wind energy site, as well as how climate change will affect resource availability. This means a massive meteorological infrastructure must be created.

Read our upcoming post from Justin Sharp to learn more about how weather and renewable energy must work together.

“[This is] an operational need, not a research project … There’s an imperative to have dedicated, accurate, and expertly curated weather information to support the energy transition.”

—Justin Sharp

Uncertainty

Demands on the grid are now subject to extreme variability, not just from weather and climate, Tuohy said. For example, demand projections from 2022 versus 2023 were radically different because of new energy-intensive data centers coming online.

“We’ve gone from a kind of deterministic system — [in which we] had good sense of, our peak demand’s going to happen in July—to a far more stochastic and variable type, both on the demand and the supply side,” said Tuohy. We have a lot of data and computational tools, but we must be able to bring those datasets together effectively so we can analyze and predict change. “We need to … develop tools that account for [uncertainty].”

Changing behavior

The infrastructure required for the necessary expansion of renewable energy generation will be expensive. Keeping the cost manageable means not wasting money to build extra infrastructure that’s only useful during times of peak demand. That means we need to avoid high peaks in energy use.

We know that people can be a lot more conscientious about energy consumption if they think it will save them money. Yet many consumers are currently sheltered from the financial consequences of overloading the grid. “There’s tremendous flexibility in load if you … expose consumers to better price signals,” Lew said.

Consumers could be financially incentivized, for example, to choose off-peak times to turn on a heater or charge an electric vehicle. Such programs should be carefully designed to minimize negative impacts on vulnerable consumers, but the fact remains that to keep those consumers safe, the climate crisis must be confronted.

Supergrid to the rescue?

The main problem with a renewable energy grid, the speakers acknowledged, is transmission—both connecting new generators and moving energy based on supply and demand. “You’ve got to be able to move wind and solar energy around at continental scales,” said MacDonald. A study by ESIG suggested that simply adding a 2-gigawatt transmission line connecting the Texas power grid with the Eastern U.S. power grid would effectively act like 4 GW of extra electricity generating capacity across the two regions, because their grids experience risk and stress at different, complementary times.

A 2016 paper MacDonald and colleagues published in Nature Climate Change suggests that U.S. electricity-sector carbon emissions could be decreased by 80% — with current technology and without increased electricity costs — if the United States can implement a “supergrid.” That means connecting all three major electrical grids currently serving the continental United States. When it’s sunny in San Jose and snowing in Cincinnati, you could transmit solar-produced energy to keep Ohio homes warm, rather than generating extra power locally. 

It will take a lot of effort, but “if we [start implementing a supergrid] now, in a 40-year transition, we can preserve the environment we have,” MacDonald said. “If we wait until the 2040s, we are basically going to devastate the planet’s life for thousands of years.”

You can view all the AMS 104th Annual Meeting presentations online. Watch this Presidential Session.

Photo at top: Harry Cunningham on Pexels (@harry.digital)