AMS Conference

Be There: The Heather Lazrus Symposium

Highlighting Key Sessions at AMS 2025

How can the scientific enterprise be improved by including Indigenous knowledge systems and scientific methodologies? How can we better support Indigenous researchers? How can other researchers cultivate respectful and fruitful relationships with Indigenous communities to improve the actionable, cultural and societal relevance of scientific efforts and environmental adaptation?

Since 2010, sessions and symposia at the AMS Annual Meeting have highlighted the importance of recognizing and respecting Indigenous science and knowledge systems within our geoscience communities. Dr. Heather Lazrus, co-founder of the Rising Voices Center for Indigenous and Earth Sciences, was a key force behind these initiatives. To honor Lazrus, who passed on from cancer in February 2023, the 105th Annual Meeting will host the AMS 2025 Heather Lazrus Symposium, “Convergence Science: Indigenous Weather, Water and Climate Knowledge, Systems, Practices and Communities.”

“The urgent threat posed by our climate crisis necessitates innovative actions. Innovation is an opportunity to look beyond Earth sciences to solutions in other knowledge systems and, in doing so, to support the rising voices of those who have been historically marginalized.” 
– Lazrus et al., 2022

What is Convergence Science?

As Symposium co-host Julie Maldonado and colleagues write in an upcoming paper, convergence science “brings together diverse disciplines, cultures, knowledge systems, and ways of knowing and understanding to solve complex problems that cannot be addressed by a single discipline or knowledge-system alone.” The term “convergence science” is often used in the context of bringing together physical, biological, and social sciences; recognizing Indigenous perspectives further emphasizes the artificial nature of boundaries between sciences and ways of knowing. The Rising Voices, Changing Coasts Hub notes that convergence science asserts “the deep relationality of life, of the planet, of mother earth, of the affirmation that we are all related.”

Honoring a Life of Justice and Leadership

Lazrus, a noted environmental anthropologist, made important strides to strengthen collaborations among Indigenous communities and researchers around climate and environmental change. She co-founded and co-directed the Rising Voices Center for Indigenous and Earth Sciences at the U.S. National Science Foundation’s National Center for Atmospheric Research and was co-principal investigator of the NSF-funded Rising Voices, Changing Coasts: The National Indigenous and Earth Sciences Convergence Hub (RVCC Hub) project.

(Image: Attendees at the 7th Annual Rising Voices Workshop, held in 2019 at NSF NCAR in Boulder, CO. Photo courtesy of the Rising Voices Center.)

Lazrus was a beloved kin in many communities, who navigated complex discussions and relationships with skill to foster respectful and meaningful relationships. Author of more than 100 research articles, book chapters, influential reports, and more, Lazrus was one of the most cited experts in her field. Yet she was also known for her humility and willingness to engage in important work behind the scenes.

As her colleagues Julie Maldonado, Elizabeth Marino, Shannon McNeeley, and Courtney Carothers wrote in their tribute to her for the Society for Applied Anthropology, “Heather … was a mother, partner, friend, scholar, adventurer, social justice advocate, scientist, matchmaker, and intellectual, involved in the creation of many relationships, ideas, and movements …”

“She was a trailblazer among scientists centering culture and equity in the study of the lived experiences of climate change. She was also an early advocate for decolonized pedagogy and research.”

(Image: Lazrus at the 4th Annual Rising Voices Workshop, held in 2016 on Hawai‘i Island. Photo courtesy of the Rising Voices Center.)

“She fought always for what is right. She was funny. She led with her heart. She believed that the world could become a better place. … We believe she is still close to the work she leaves behind, and close to the circle of people and all relations that will carry her legacy forward.”

What to Expect from the Symposium

The Lazrus Symposium will host a Presidential Session with the RVCC’s’ Louisiana Hub, in which local Tribal leaders, elders, and partnering scientists share their stories of weaving together Indigenous and other science knowledge for place-based convergence science and community adaptation. 

The Symposium will also include presentations from early career Indigenous scholars on emerging Indigenous innovations related to weather, water, and climate. For example, sharing ideas focused on Indigenous-led systems change and capacity sharing for community resilience, salt marsh restoration as climate mitigation, convergent research for climate adaptation and supporting subsistence harvests, and biocultural approaches to mitigate fire risk. A luncheon will be held in honor of Lazrus, featuring a special screening of “Everything Has a Spirit” and a conversation with filmmaker Ava Hamilton (Arapaho). In addition, the program includes discussions on how to improve scientific partnerships among federal agencies and Tribal governments and communities, and presentations by Indigenous scientists on fostering intercultural dialogue and respectful engagement.

“Whether you have long been engaged in convergence science or intercultural collaborations or you are learning about these ideas for the first time, this space is for you,” note the session organizers. “We welcome the AMS community into this ongoing conversation to co-create culturally relevant and actionable scientific knowledge and actions that increase climate resilience and support healthy, thriving communities today and for future generations.”

The Heather Lazrus Symposium will be held Monday, 13 January, 2025 at the AMS 105th Annual Meeting, in New Orleans, LA, and online; it will feature invited presentations along with a special luncheon. Learn more about the Symposium and view the program.

Special thanks to the Symposium Organizing Committee: Julie Maldonado (Livelihoods Knowledge Exchange Network); Stephanie Herring (NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information); Eileen Shea (Rising Voices); Diamond Tachera (NSF NCAR); Katie Jones (NEON | Battelle); Robbie Hood (Blue Thunderbird LLC); Tim Schneider (NSF NCAR Research Applications Laboratory); Jen Henderson (Texas Tech University); Carlos Martinez (NSF).

Community Modeling and the Future of Numerical Weather Prediction

A 2024 AMS Summer Community Meeting highlight

The AMS Weather Enterprise Study will provide a comprehensive picture of the shifting landscape of weather-related fields to inform our joint future. At the 2024 Summer Community Meeting, working groups discussed what they’d found about key issues facing the enterprise.

Here are a few takeaways from the Community Modeling working group, as reported by Gretchen Mullendore of the NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). Community modeling employs Earth system model software developed by public-academic partnerships. Community models have open-source components and are freely available for use by anyone with the computing power to run them–for example researchers, students, and private companies.

Photo: Gretchen Mullendore

How has the community modeling landscape changed in recent years, and where are we now?

First, artificial intelligence and machine learning (AI/ML) have become huge players in numerical weather prediction (NWP) model development. Second, a cultural change in weather research and forecasting is taking place; we’re beginning to collaborate much more closely across agencies and industries than we used to, and many people are invested in deepening those collaborations.

What were the main themes that came out of your working group’s discussions?

The NWP community is collaborating more than ever before. However, the community remains spread among many institutions, with each research group working on small pieces of the overall weather prediction challenge. Having many research groups can be a strength in terms of encouraging innovation, but it is a weakness if research isn’t coordinated effectively to fully realize collective benefits. Limited funding and resourcing is an additional barrier to community model development. As a community, we need to continue to prioritize modularity and interoperability across NWP systems and work towards more effective shared governance.

Another major theme is the role of the private sector in NWP. Big tech companies are increasingly getting into NWP and there is a concern that public forecasting efforts are not able to keep pace. The private sector brings agility and innovation to the field, and working to leverage unique contributions across public, academic, and private research entities is valuable. However, if the growing role of the private sector in NWP leads to more observations, simulations, and software being behind proprietary walls, there is risk to accessibility and collaboration.

The NWP community is also facing challenges in workforce development. Universities are teaching people the right skills to work in data assimilation and analytics, but many of those people are being scooped up by private sector companies in other fields offering salaries that employers in the weather industry cannot compete with. We need to better communicate the value of our missions and our work to attract and retain talented early career professionals.

What preliminary recommendations or future directions have you discussed?

We can and should continue to build on community efforts to coordinate across public, academic, and private developers. This coordination should include planning for the appropriate use of AI/ML tools in NWP research and applications. We can also build on efforts to leverage social science research to prioritize our limited resources, e.g., by learning what type of forecasting improvements will most benefit stakeholders. Finally, we need to recognize the importance of the legislature in resourcing model development. It’s important to communicate our successes and the value of a thriving NWP community. In summary, we should strategize to develop intentional communication among ourselves, across disciplines, and most importantly, with legislatures and the public.

What did you hear from the community at the Summer Community Meeting?

My pick for the most important question asked at the SCM is, “What does success look like in NWP development?” The goal that motivates us all in the NWP community is for no more deaths to occur as a result of weather hazards. In order to achieve breakthroughs in prediction that stand to move us closer to that goal, we need to invest in innovation, which requires risk. However, much of the work in NWP development is funded by federal agencies, which tend to be risk-averse. More broadly, the systems in which our scientists work can be an impediment to innovation. For example, the pressure to publish often incentivizes incremental progress over new ideas. Collectively, as an NWP community, we need to build systems that allow researchers to take risks without fear of failure or negative consequences.

What are the main challenges, conflicts, or points of discussion identified by the group (or at the SCM)?

AI/ML could possibly improve the skill and speed of all parts of the NWP system. That said, the challenges are also great. Challenges include a lack of AI/ML expertise in NWP community leadership; a need to invest in AI/ML without additional resources; and a need to keep up with the latest AI/ML research, which is moving incredibly rapidly. The lack of clear AI/ML plans from U.S. institutional leaders in NWP led some to ask at the SCM if leaders were skewed against it. My perception is instead that the community is feeling overwhelmed by these challenges. We can overcome these challenges through innovation and collaboration, leveraging our respective expertise and investments to more efficiently take advantage of the great opportunity that is AI/ML in NWP.

Want to join a Weather Enterprise Study working group? Email [email protected].

About the Weather Enterprise Study

The AMS Policy Program, working closely with the volunteer leadership of the Commission on the Weather, Water, and Climate Enterprise, is conducting a two-year effort (2023-2025) to assess how well the weather enterprise is performing, and to potentially develop new recommendations for how it might serve the public even better. Learn more here, give us your input via Google Forms, or get involved by contacting [email protected].  

About the AMS Summer Community Meeting

The AMS Summer Community Meeting (SCM) is a special time for professionals from academia, industry, government, and NGOs to come together to discuss broader strategic priorities, identify challenges to be addressed and opportunities to collaborate, and share points of view on pressing topics. The SCM provides a unique, informal setting for constructive deliberation of current issues and development of a shared vision for the future. The 2024 Summer Community Meeting took place August 5-6 in Washington, DC, and focused special attention on the Weather Enterprise, with opportunities for the entire community to learn about, discuss, debate, and extend some of the preliminary findings coming from the AMS Weather Enterprise Study.

What’s the Future of Weather Decision-Making?

A 2024 AMS Summer Community Meeting highlight

Matt Corey

The AMS Summer Community Meeting drew exceptional attendance and engagement this year as people across sectors helped inform an upcoming report on the Weather Enterprise. The AMS Weather Enterprise Study will provide a comprehensive picture of the shifting landscape of weather-related fields to inform our joint future. At the 2024 SCM, working groups discussed what they’d found about key issues facing the enterprise, and asked for feedback from the community.

Here are a few takeaways from the Decision Support Services working group, as reported by Matt Corey (pictured at left) of Microsoft Weather. Decision support services (DSS) help stakeholders make weather-related decisions that are informed by the best available knowledge across fields. They are crucial for emergency managers and many other decision makers, as well as members of the public.

How has the decision support landscape shifted in the last decade or so?

Stakeholders for DSS range from an emergency manager making critical decisions about an entire community to an everyday citizen making a decision for themselves or their family. For decision support services, the last two decades have seen an abundance of technology changes which have allowed stakeholders easier access to information. However, this can be both a benefit and a challenge, as misinformation has also become more readily available.

What were the main themes that came out of your working group’s discussions?

The themes that emerged for us included:

  • The different sectors of the Weather Enterprise have become coupled, with less well-defined boundaries when it comes to providing decision support.
  • New players are entering the enterprise, with growing AI and novel ideas.
  • Developing and maintaining the necessary workforce is a concern.
  • There are increased opportunities for translating forecasts into easily understood language in order to support decisions.
  • There is a need for increased funding for quality observational datasets for many applications, especially in AI.
  • In a complex, misinformation-rich environment, there is still room for all sectors to tailor communications to stakeholders, but there is also concern about maintaining consistency in order to maintain trust.
  • Embracing user centric design to understand stakeholder concerns, technical levels, and understanding is important, including the use of probabilistic information.  Example:  “There is an 80% chance the flooding will happen this afternoon.”

What are the main challenges you have identified?

In our group, the discussion continues to be about who should be providing decision support services. As the NWS gets more involved in DSS, one concern is for increased friction from some private sector entities. Another key point is that DSS is not limited to a specific stakeholder type. DSS is important to all citizens who need to make decisions involving weather every day, thus there is a shared dimension and need for responsible and clear messaging to all stakeholders (including the tactical use of probabilistic information). 

A final recurring theme is around the workforce itself. Forecasters need to be taught communication skills, and social science is critical in helping to understand the needs and problems to be solved for the end users. With the focus shifting to newer tools including AI-infused capabilities, there is a concern that the new workforce will lose the necessary skills critical in conveying adequate decision support services.

What preliminary/tentative recommendations, solutions, or future directions have you discussed?

Some of the recommendations we’re working with right now focus on:

  • Integration of weather, water, and climate information with socioeconomic and biosphere information for earth system forecasts.
  • Cross-sector support of ecological forecasts and environmental early warning systems (for example, warnings of fishing industry impacts due to warmer water) to benefit society and facilitate impact-based action.
  • Improved communication about weather impacts, especially in a changing climate, using common terms and learnings based on stakeholder’s decision needs.
  • Embracing AI as a way to increase the velocity of forecasts, integrate probabilistic information into forecasts, and increase efficiency for both short-term services like nowcasting and long-term climate solutions for all.
  • Helping meteorologists to become the communicators that they should be. Leveraging AI solutions and tools to help make them more efficient at helping stakeholders with their decisions.
  • Expanding opportunities for smaller businesses/individuals to obtain specialized DSS.
  • Increased public awareness of changing weather patterns stimulating the need for better accuracy, earlier warnings, and long-range projections.
  • The need to smartly integrate probabilistic information to help stakeholders better understand forecasts and limitations.

Want to join a Weather Enterprise Study working group? Email [email protected].

About the Weather Enterprise Study

The AMS Policy Program, working closely with the volunteer leadership of the Commission on the Weather, Water, and Climate Enterprise, is conducting a two-year effort (2023-2025) to assess how well the weather enterprise is performing, and to potentially develop new recommendations for how it might serve the public even better. Learn more here, give us your input via Google Forms, or get involved by contacting [email protected].  

About the AMS Summer Community Meeting

The AMS Summer Community Meeting (SCM) is a special time for professionals from academia, industry, government, and NGOs to come together to discuss broader strategic priorities, identify challenges to be addressed and opportunities to collaborate, and share points of view on pressing topics. The SCM provides a unique, informal setting for constructive deliberation of current issues and development of a shared vision for the future. The 2024 Summer Community Meeting took place August 5-6 in Washington, DC, and focused special attention on the Weather Enterprise, with opportunities for the entire community to learn about, discuss, debate, and extend some of the preliminary findings coming from the AMS Weather Enterprise Study.

Tornado Risks: Perceptions and Realities

A session spotlight from the 31st Conference on Severe Local Storms

By Katie Pflaumer, AMS Staff

The session “Perception and Risk Associated with Severe Weather” at the 31st Conference on Severe Local Storms highlighted the interactions between severe weather and societal impacts. Here are a few takeaways.

Tornado impacts are increasing across the United States–despite variation in where tornadoes hit. A presentation by Stephen Strader (Villanova University) highlighted the importance of considering all factors to understand tornado impacts, not just climate. Using 40 years of observational data, plus a statistical model depicting changes in societal factors, researchers found that increased housing and population growth in tornado-prone areas is a key driver of increased tornado damage/human risk. 

While the number of days with tornadoes is trending down in the U.S. Southern Plains and trending upward in the mid-South; the likelihood of tornado damage has increased in both regions due to increased human occupation. However, the combination of tornado increases with population growth and spread has tripled tornado impact potential in the mid-South since 1980, surpassing the Southern Plains. Strader noted that stricter enforcement of building codes, investments in tornado shelters and safe rooms, and public education could help mitigate tornado damages–if scientists can get across the message that human factors matter.


“We have to get away from this idea that climate change is a cause of a disaster … climate change is a contributor to a disaster, not a cause. [Disaster] is inherently linked to societal factors. … With environmental changes and exposure changes/housing growth, you see an increasingly disaster-prone society.”

—Stephen Strader

Graphic from: Strader, S.M., Gensini, V.A., Ashley, W.S., and A.N. Wagner (2024) “Changing Tornado Environments Vs. Changing Societal Vulnerability and Exposure.” (Poster presented at 31st Conference on Severe Local Storms, October 21.) Originally from Strader et al. (2024), “Changes in tornado risk and societal vulnerability leading to greater tornado impact potential.” NPJ Natural Hazards, 19 June. https://doi.org/10.1038/s44304-024-00019-6

Wireless Emergency Alerts are critical—and confusing—for Spanish speakers in the U.S. Southeast. A study presented by Joseph Trujillo-Falcón (University of Illinois) found that Spanish-language wireless emergency alerts (WEAs, phone notifications about severe weather) from the National Weather Service are crucial safety tools. For some tornado survivors in Kentucky, for example, the WEA had been their only trigger to get to safety. In-depth conversations with 27 Spanish speakers from across the U.S. found that WEAs were highly respected and useful, yet needed some redesign to avoid confusion. For example, the Spanish translation of the NWS acronym (SNM) called to mind medical conditions or kink. The word “proyectiles” (projectiles), used to warn about airborne debris, evoked war zone imagery rather than weather. Using the word “aviso” for “warning” struck many as less urgent than the term “alerta.” In addition, 360-word warnings (versus those of 90 words or less) helped readers better understand what was going on and what to do in response. This was especially important for people who hadn’t encountered a tornado in their country of origin. Direct links to information and instructions on how and where to shelter were also seen as key, especially in areas with many mobile or manufactured homes.

“The information source that I take most seriously as a recently arrived immigrant are WEAs. Since everyone gets it at the same time, if one ignores it, the other reads it.”

—Gabriela, Venezuelan immigrant who has limited English proficiency (Trujillo-Falcón 2024).

People want different forecast information as a threat evolves. A study presented by Makenzie Krocak (National Severe Storms Laboratory) analyzed data from the Severe Weather and Society survey to determine what information members of the public want and need at different times in relation to weather threats. They found that respondents’ priorities changed over time. In longer time frames (e.g., three days in advance) survey respondents overwhelmingly ranked location information and event probability as the most valuable information; people wanted to know, ‘Should I prepare for severe weather to occur in my area?’ A day to an hour in advance, people wanted to know about the timing of the event, as well as its potential severity. In the warning time frame (60 minutes or less) their desire for information about potential impacts and necessary protective actions increased.

For additional insight, the researchers painstakingly categorized, geo-located, and analyzed 9000+ social media comments from the National Weather Service Facebook and Twitter/X accounts before and after severe weather events. A poster presented by undergraduate student Emily Allen (University of Louisiana Monroe) delved into this side of the equation.

Emily Allen with her poster, “Assessing Public Information Needs Leading Up to Severe Weather Events.” (E.A. Allen and M. Krocak, 2024)

Three days out from an event, commenters largely asked about the chance of an event happening, but for nearer time frames, location became the dominant question—i.e., ‘Will this hit my specific area?’ Krocak emphasized the need to include very clear landmarks in warning graphics to help people find their location. She also noted that certain groups still require information about protective actions to take—especially those with the least experience dealing with a particular hazard.

Making severe weather products usable and understandable. Two presentations dealt with public perceptions of evolving probabilistic weather forecast information—that is, communicating changes in severe weather risks across time and geography. 

Christopher Wirz (NSF NCAR) presented preliminary results of a study about public perceptions of evolving probabilistic tornado forecasts and warnings. On average, respondents’ sense of risk was about the same as for a deterministic (e.g., warning vs no-warning) forecast; most were likely to be on high alert during a tornado warning in any case, and not underestimate their risk. However, there were differences in how participants responded based on where they were located relative to a given warning polygon. For example, some felt they were in more danger if they were ‘in front’ of the warning polygon, despite the graphics showing equal tornado risk in other directions. Warn-on forecasts—alerts issued when a significant risk is predicted, often long before a tornado is detected by radar—were seen as less actionable by some, but others appreciated knowing to ‘keep an eye out.’ Overall, the study found that members of the public don’t take probabilistic information at face value—rather, they interpret it based on context, including existing local knowledge and other warning products they encounter. In addition, for half of the respondents, level of trust in a forecast didn’t change when they received more/updated information, because trust was instead based on how much they trusted the source of the forecast.

Kristin Calhoun (NOAA National Severe Storms Laboratory) presented about new products and communications that are in development to help NWS forecasters and emergency managers use storm-based probabilistic hazard information (PHI) in the severe weather watch-warning timeframe. These included PHI tools layered with threats-in-motion (TIM) information, in which warning polygons are moved (and removed) with the motion of the storm, helping downstream areas prepare sooner and allowing those for whom danger has passed to redeploy their resources more strategically; potential new protocols for the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center, rather than local weather forecast offices, to add or remove an area from a watch/warning once the threat has passed; a blended PHI plus warn-on forecast product that can help emergency managers plan better by seeing storms in motion along with trends in likelihood and potential impact; and a new product based on SPC’s ‘Mesoscale Discussions,’ created by local NWS forecasters and called ‘Local Discussions,’ with an increased focus on potential impacts, timing, and location of hazards versus highly technical information.

Photo: National Severe Storms Laboratory, Watch-to-Warning Experiment.

Social pressure may impact campus tornado safety. Alicia Klees (University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign) presented work conducted largely by undergraduate student Kyla Wolski that has implications for student safety. The University of Illinois’s Illini-Alert system warns students when tornado threats are approaching; most students are aware of the alerts, and most have experienced a tornado warning before. Students were asked in a survey what they would do if they were in a vulnerable location—such as a fourth-floor classroom with glass windows—and received a tornado warning. 75% said they would change their location to seek shelter. However, when a hypothetical professor kept teaching through a tornado warning (as some faculty reportedly did during the last real tornado warning on campus), 22% of students who had planned to seek shelter said they would probably stay in class. These students said they trusted the professor’s judgment—yet professors do not receive extensive formal training on tornado safety. Klees recalled an anecdote from a student in which one faculty member remarked, “I don’t hear the sirens anymore, so it’s fine.”

In addition, most students did not view tornadoes as a major risk, and most were unaware that tornadoes could happen at any time of year. Klees identified future collaborations with Emergency Management to survey faculty and TAs on tornado warning response, with the goal of keeping students safe.

If you are registered for the 31st Conference on Severe Local Storms, you can view the full session recording at this link.

About the 31st Conference on Severe Local Storms

The American Meteorological Society’s 31st Conference on Severe Local Storms takes place 21-25 October, 2024, in Virginia Beach, VA, and online. The conference is the premiere gathering for scientists, forecasters, educators, and communicators engaged in all aspects of work related to hazardous deep convective weather phenomena. Attendees present and discuss cutting-edge research regarding the analysis, prediction, communication, and theoretical understanding of the structure and dynamics of severe thunderstorms, including their associated hazards of tornadoes, damaging winds, large hail, lightning, and flash floods. View the conference program here.

Can Decarbonizing the Electric Grid Help Avert Climate Catastrophe?

Photo by Harry Cunningham @harry.digital: https://www.pexels.com/photo/photo-of-wind-turbines-under-cloudy-sky-3619870/

A Presidential Session Spotlight from the AMS 104th Annual Meeting

By Katie Pflaumer, AMS Staff

Significantly reducing greenhouse gas emissions requires transitioning primarily to carbon-free sources for energy generation, but many challenges stand in the way. What are these challenges, and how can the weather, water, and climate sector help meet them?

A Presidential Session at the 104th AMS Annual Meeting addressed those questions with panelists Debbie Lew (Executive Director at ESIG, the Energy Systems Integration Group), Alexander “Sandy” MacDonald (former AMS President and former director of the NOAA Earth Systems Research Laboratory), Aidan Tuohy (Director of Transmission Operations and Planning at EPRI, the Electric Power Research Institute), and Justin Sharp (then Owner and Principal of Sharply Focused, now Technical Leader in the Transmission and Operations Planning team at EPRI). Here are some key points that arose from the session, titled, “Transition to Carbon-Free Energy Generation,” introduced by NSF NCAR’s Jared Lee, and moderated by MESO, Inc.’s John Zack.

Key Points

  • Decarbonizing the electric grid is key to reducing U.S. greenhouse gas emissions.
  • Wind and solar are now the cheapest forms of energy generation; adoption is increasing, but not fast enough to catch up with the likely growth in demand. 
  • Energy demand is rapidly increasing, driven by the expansion of data centers, AI applications, crypto mining, and the electrification of transportation and heating. Hydrogen production might greatly increase future loads. 
  • “Massive buildouts” of both renewable energy plants AND transmission infrastructure are required to reduce emissions. 
  • A reliable and affordable power system with large shares of wind and solar generation requires accurate historical weather information to inform infrastructure buildout, and accurate forecasts to support operations. 
  • To avoid expensive infrastructure that’s only used during peak times, electricity pricing must incentivize consumers to avoid excessive use during periods of high demand. This requires accurate weather forecasting. 
  • Connecting the three main national grids together into a “supergrid” could improve transmission and grid flexibility, significantly reducing emissions.

The need for carbon-free energy is urgent

Greenhouse gas emissions are still increasing sharply. In response, global temperatures are rising faster than even the most pessimistic models would have predicted a few decades ago, noted Lee in his introductory remarks to the panel. The U.S. is the second largest global carbon emitter, despite having a much smaller population than the other top emitters, China and India.

If we don’t solve the greenhouse gas problem by mid-century, warned MacDonald, we will soon hit 700 ppm of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. If that happens, “We’re back to the Miocene era,” he said, referencing an exceptionally hot period around 12.5 million years ago. “Northern Hemisphere land temperatures will be 11 degrees Fahrenheit warmer. Arctic temps will be 17°F warmer, which is probably going to launch a huge permafrost thaw … The ocean will be 80% more acidic. So we are in an urgent situation.”

What’s the path to a more sustainable future? Decarbonizing the grid.

The energy sector is one of the top sources of U.S. emissions—and reducing emissions there will have knock-on effects in buildings and transportation. Lee noted that wind and solar power have dropped dramatically in price, becoming the cheapest forms of energy generation available. This has led to an increase in adoption: renewables are now second only to natural gas in terms of electrical power generated in the United States. Yet natural gas is still growing fast, and still far exceeds the use of renewables.

Therefore, Lew said in her talk, we need “massive buildouts of [wind, solar, and battery] resources … doubling or even tripling the amount of installed capacity. We’re going to be electrifying buildings, transportation, industry [and] massively building out transmission and distribution networks … And we’re going to be using fossil fuel generators for reliability needs.” Doing this could get us to 80-90% fossil-free energy production.

Bridging the gap

But what about that last 10–20%?

“We need some kind of cost-effective, clean, firm resource” to fill in the gaps and act as a bridge fuel—a resource that’s available 24/7 no matter the weather or season—said Lew. This resource might end up being hydrogen, advanced nuclear energy, or even green bioenergy with carbon capture and sequestration to offset emissions from natural gas. “We need all options on the table.”

Weather? Or not?

Trying to transition to renewables without incorporating reliability and resilience will lead to blackouts and power outages, Tuohy noted. These would have major economic consequences and reduce the political viability of renewables, as well as leading to unjust allocation of energy.

A resilient grid, he said, requires enough energy production to meet future demand; adequate transmission and delivery infrastructure to meet future needs and to balance supply with demand moment-to-moment every day; reliability despite constant shifts in energy production; and the ability to prevent a problem in one place from causing cascading outages across the system. 

Making a new, wind- and solar-dependent grid truly work means balancing—and forecasting—energy availability and demand across the nation, accounting for the current and predicted weather at each solar and wind energy site, as well as how climate change will affect resource availability. This means a massive meteorological infrastructure must be created.

Read our upcoming post from Justin Sharp to learn more about how weather and renewable energy must work together.

“[This is] an operational need, not a research project … There’s an imperative to have dedicated, accurate, and expertly curated weather information to support the energy transition.”

—Justin Sharp

Uncertainty

Demands on the grid are now subject to extreme variability, not just from weather and climate, Tuohy said. For example, demand projections from 2022 versus 2023 were radically different because of new energy-intensive data centers coming online.

“We’ve gone from a kind of deterministic system — [in which we] had good sense of, our peak demand’s going to happen in July—to a far more stochastic and variable type, both on the demand and the supply side,” said Tuohy. We have a lot of data and computational tools, but we must be able to bring those datasets together effectively so we can analyze and predict change. “We need to … develop tools that account for [uncertainty].”

Changing behavior

The infrastructure required for the necessary expansion of renewable energy generation will be expensive. Keeping the cost manageable means not wasting money to build extra infrastructure that’s only useful during times of peak demand. That means we need to avoid high peaks in energy use.

We know that people can be a lot more conscientious about energy consumption if they think it will save them money. Yet many consumers are currently sheltered from the financial consequences of overloading the grid. “There’s tremendous flexibility in load if you … expose consumers to better price signals,” Lew said.

Consumers could be financially incentivized, for example, to choose off-peak times to turn on a heater or charge an electric vehicle. Such programs should be carefully designed to minimize negative impacts on vulnerable consumers, but the fact remains that to keep those consumers safe, the climate crisis must be confronted.

Supergrid to the rescue?

The main problem with a renewable energy grid, the speakers acknowledged, is transmission—both connecting new generators and moving energy based on supply and demand. “You’ve got to be able to move wind and solar energy around at continental scales,” said MacDonald. A study by ESIG suggested that simply adding a 2-gigawatt transmission line connecting the Texas power grid with the Eastern U.S. power grid would effectively act like 4 GW of extra electricity generating capacity across the two regions, because their grids experience risk and stress at different, complementary times.

A 2016 paper MacDonald and colleagues published in Nature Climate Change suggests that U.S. electricity-sector carbon emissions could be decreased by 80% — with current technology and without increased electricity costs — if the United States can implement a “supergrid.” That means connecting all three major electrical grids currently serving the continental United States. When it’s sunny in San Jose and snowing in Cincinnati, you could transmit solar-produced energy to keep Ohio homes warm, rather than generating extra power locally. 

It will take a lot of effort, but “if we [start implementing a supergrid] now, in a 40-year transition, we can preserve the environment we have,” MacDonald said. “If we wait until the 2040s, we are basically going to devastate the planet’s life for thousands of years.”

You can view all the AMS 104th Annual Meeting presentations online. Watch this Presidential Session.

Photo at top: Harry Cunningham on Pexels (@harry.digital)

How is Weather Research Changing?

A 2024 AMS Summer Community Meeting highlight

The AMS Summer Community Meeting (SCM) drew exceptional attendance and engagement this year as people across sectors helped inform a major upcoming report on the Weather Enterprise. The AMS Weather Enterprise Study will provide a comprehensive picture of the shifting landscape of weather-related fields to inform our joint future. At the 2024 SCM, working groups discussed what they’d found about key issues facing the enterprise, and asked for feedback from the community. 

Here are a few takeaways from the Research Enterprise working group, as reported by Daniel Rothenberg of Brightband.

Photo courtesy of Daniel Rothenberg.

How has the weather research landscape shifted in the last decade or so?

Two of the most important shifts have been a movement of exploratory and applied research from the public to the private sector, and the rise in importance of “data science” and other hybrid roles blending a mixture of domain expertise and broader engineering and technical skills. 

Possibly the biggest example of these shifts coming together has been the advent of AI-based weather forecasting tools, although it also shows in trends such as the rise of private companies operating earth observation platforms.

What were the principal themes that came out of your working group’s discussions?

One major theme we discussed was the balance of responsibilities across the traditional weather enterprise. Initiatives such as building and launching satellite constellations or developing new weather models were at one point solely within the remit of the public sector (due to complexity and cost), but are now commonly undertaken by the private sector – sometimes even at start-up companies.

This re-balancing opens as many opportunities as it does challenges, and leads to another major theme: how we can best prepare for the workforce needs of today and tomorrow. Meteorologists will increasingly need to apply technical skills such as software development and data science alongside ones from the social sciences; preparing our current and future workforce for these demands will be a challenge in its own right.

A third major theme is that the weather enterprise is getting bigger. We’re not just a community of meteorologists anymore. Increasingly, critical work related to weather, water, climate, and their impacts on society is being undertaken beyond the traditional boundaries of our enterprise. There is a significant opportunity to improve society’s resilience if we as a community are able to build relationships with the new institutions working on these issues in a collaborative, interdisciplinary manner.

What are the main challenges you have identified?

Better accounting for how we ought to invest limited – and declining – federal resources will be a significant and contentious challenge, only complicated by the shifts in priorities and capabilities across the enterprise.

Those shifts motivate a second key challenge, which is clarifying who in the enterprise is accountable for, or has ownership over, certain areas. For example, NOAA makes available nearly all of the observations used in its operational forecast models, with some exceptions for proprietary data from commercial entities. But as more private companies try to sell data to NOAA, how will this balance hold? What if those private companies move towards selling actual weather modeling capabilities or services – perhaps a proprietary AI-based weather model – to the government? In the case of expanding commercial data purchases, who is responsible for maintaining and improving our data assimilation capabilities? 

Coordinating many actors across the enterprise, in a manner that most effectively serves our mission to society, will be a key challenge we must navigate in the coming years.

What preliminary recommendations or future directions have you discussed?

Our tentative recommendations revolve around building robustness. We encourage academic organizations who train our future meteorologists to consider how to prepare these students to work in a multidisciplinary capacity, and to embrace data science skills. Not everyone needs to be an interdisciplinary scientist, but it’s vital that our students learn how to apply their deep domain knowledge as part of a team of such individuals.

We also acknowledge that the rise of AI/ML techniques is changing the demands of our computing and data infrastructure. Not only must our workforce learn to adapt to these technologies, but we must consider how the enterprise will support enabling them: for example, by ensuring that in addition to large, traditional high-performance computing resources, we provide access to GPUs and similar tools. As part of this re-evaluation, we must evolve the ways in which we as a community define our priorities for federal research funding

What did you hear from the community at the SCM?

We thank the community for the warm reception to our assessments at the Summer Community Meeting. Many of the themes we touched on – the re-balancing of capabilities across the enterprise, the emergence of AI/ML and its implications, as well as core workforce development concerns – were echoed across many other working groups, underscoring their importance.

Within our group, we also discussed the growing importance of convergence science, which was echoed several times throughout the meeting. Convergence science, which involves coordinating diverse, interdisciplinary research teams with real stakeholders to solve societally relevant problems, is likely to be an important mechanism of translational research in the future, but we (and others at the meeting) identified a need for federal agencies to devote more resources earmarked for this sort of work in order to complement traditional, siloed funding programs.

Want to join a Weather Enterprise Study working group? Email [email protected].

About the Weather Enterprise Study

The AMS Policy Program, working closely with the volunteer leadership of the Commission on the Weather, Water, and Climate Enterprise, is conducting a two-year effort (2023-2025) to assess how well the weather enterprise is performing, and to potentially develop new recommendations for how it might serve the public even better. Learn more here, give us your input via Google Forms, or get involved by contacting [email protected].  

About the AMS Summer Community Meeting

The AMS Summer Community Meeting (SCM) is a special time for professionals from academia, industry, government, and NGOs to come together to discuss broader strategic priorities, identify challenges to be addressed and opportunities to collaborate, and share points of view on pressing topics. The SCM provides a unique, informal setting for constructive deliberation of current issues and development of a shared vision for the future. The 2024 Summer Community Meeting took place August 5-6 in Washington, DC, and focused special attention on the Weather Enterprise, with opportunities for the entire community to learn about, discuss, debate, and extend some of the preliminary findings coming from the AMS Weather Enterprise Study.

Beach Safety for Broadcasters

A pier at Myrtle Beach

A session highlight from the 51st Conference on Broadcast Meteorology/7th Conference on Weather Warnings and Communication

By Katie Pflaumer, AMS staff

The ocean looked aggressive. It was 6:45 a.m. on June 13 in Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, and my weather app was warning me about the possibilities of dangerous currents. A coastal hazard statement was in effect.

The waves—dark under early-morning cloud—pulled and crashed messily, much stronger than they’d been the day before. Some were coming in at an angle, bending southward down the beach. Whitecaps littered the water’s surface and the air was loud with the waves and wind. 

Bruckner Chase was thrilled. “These are exactly the kinds of conditions we’re trying to teach you about,” he said.

I’d met up with him on the beach, along with his NOAA Wave Safe program colleagues Dr. Michelle Evans-Chase and Patrick Roach, other AMS staff, and several broadcast meteorologists who’d signed up for the “Blue IQ: Water, Waves, Weather and Coastal Safety” course at the 51st Conference on Broadcast Meteorology/Seventh Conference on Weather Warnings and Communication. It was an unusual meeting session, organized to help weather communicators—especially broadcast meteorologists—better engage with the public about beach safety. 

What follows are a few takeaways from that morning, and from a later Weather Band webinar that recapped the session.

As we walked gradually towards the surf, our discussion focused on the three “zones” of ocean safety—the safe zone, the awareness zone, and the impact zone. There are important things to pay attention to in all three.

Safe Zone

The safe zone—far back from where any waves might reach—is a place to take inventory and get the lay of the land, as well as making sure you have all the supplies you may need.

Bruckner Chase (center) and Patrick Roach talk to BlueIQ participants.
Bruckner Chase (center) and Patrick Roach talk to BlueIQ participants in the Safe Zone. Photo: AMS staff.

Wait and Watch. The ocean, as Chase noted, is a constantly changing environment. The most important thing you can do is to pay attention. “Every beach is different [and due to tidal changes], that beach is also different from morning to afternoon,” said Chase during the webinar. “[If] you’ve got a sandbar that was under 3 feet of water and is now under 6 inches … now it’s become dangerous.” 

Note any hazards (like piers or areas where waves are breaking strangely) and think about the height, direction, and roughness of the waves. Wind direction will impact wave behavior, and winds coming from the ocean or along the beach can make for more challenging conditions. Take time to observe what’s happening.

“Many people will look [at the waves] for a minute or two and go, oh, it’s fine. I watch the water 10 to 15 minutes at least, because waves will come in sets, conditions will change, it’s not always the same.”

—Bruckner Chase

Listen to the Experts. Lifeguards and surfers are often great sources for information about your beach. Always swim near lifeguards and pay attention to any signs or messaging about when and where you can swim safely. 

Weather Aware. Conditions at the nearest weather reporting station may not reflect conditions at the coast. For example, in early summer, cold water and warm air can create dense fog right along the beach. “It can get to where you can’t see the shore,” said Michelle Evans-Chase. Weather communicators can help make their audience aware of these possible localized events. 

Yet the general weather forecast is still important. If a storm is approaching, for example, people need to know to get out of the water and off the beach, as lightning can strike miles ahead of a storm. 

Hazards and Tides. Your weather forecast office may also issue information about beach hazards. They had done so for Myrtle Beach today: strong longshore currents (running parallel to the beach) were highly likely, and rip currents (which can pull swimmers out towards the ocean) were moderately likely. Weather reports may also list the times of high and low tide, which can dramatically impact water conditions due to depth changes across sand bars or submerged hazards. Be careful around inlets when the tide is changing; strong tidal-driven currents may funnel through calm-appearing waters.

From our vantage point the day of the session, we could see signs of the longshore current scrambling the waves. Beach forecasts often include rip current risk, but longshore currents can also be very dangerous, sweeping you down the beach and making it hard to get back to shore. If you’re on a small beach surrounded by more challenging terrain, such a current could even drag you past the safe landing area. A final note on the safe zone: Make sure you know where it actually is. “Sneaker” waves—unusually large waves—may come much farther up the beach than expected. On rocky shorelines (common in the Pacific Northwest), these waves can pull people off the rocks into very cold water. The same can happen on piers and jetties. Even if a vantage point appears safe, heed any signage telling you not to go out there, and always pay attention to what’s happening in the water.

Awareness Zone

Once you walk closer to the surf, you’ll have a better sense of what your ocean experience will be like. When our little class left the area of the dunes, we were less shielded from the wind, and the waves seemed louder and taller than when we’d looked at them from above. Chase had us all lie down near the edge of the water, noting how large two- or three-foot waves can seem once you’re in them. Getting hit by even a smallish wave at the wrong angle can cause serious injury, so never underestimate surf.

“If … it’s your first trip to the beach, two feet doesn’t sound like much. … But a mass of water moving at you every six seconds that’s two feet high is a lot different and harder to navigate.”

—Bruckner Chase
People lying down at the water's edge
Blue IQ session participants lie down at the edge of the water for a different perspective on the day’s waves. Photo: AMS staff.

Prepare to get in the water by orienting yourself. Line yourself up with a very specific landmark—pick something colorful and uniquely shaped that you can look back and easily identify (we used the water slide in front of our hotel). This is also important in an emergency, as EMS will need to know where to enter the beach to get to you.

Impact Zone

The impact zone, more technically known as the swash zone, is where waves are washing up on the sand and receding. This is where you’re getting into the water. 

Be Prepared. Depending on water temperature, be prepared for a cold shock that could impact motor function. As Chase reminded us, “If you’re in a dangerous situation [and numb from the cold], you may lose the ability to effectively move out of it.” Be aware that the beach can drop off rapidly, and you could suddenly find yourself deeper than expected.

Move Efficiently. Chase outlined techniques for making efficient progress through the surf and conserving energy. Walking in sideways means less of your body has to fight through a wave. Diving underneath approaching waves can be another good way to make progress; things are much more peaceful under the water. Stick your fingers in the sand to make sure you go deep enough and to help you stay oriented.

Remain Calm. Chase’s techniques worked well, yet we all struggled to get out into waist deep water the morning of the session. The longshore current pulled relentlessly, and the waves—which hit us every few seconds as they piled up close to shore—made me grateful to be surrounded by trained lifeguards. Even with our feet mostly on the ground, we were soon swept 30-40 meters down the beach. If we’d gone out further, the currents might have made it hard to get back in.

BlueIQ participants wade in the ocean
Blue IQ session participants wade in waist-deep water. Photo: AMS staff.

If you’re caught in a rip current, standard advice is to swim perpendicular to the direction the current is moving you to escape this narrow, ocean flowing band of water (which will normally weaken once you get further out). Then, carefully swim at an angle towards the shore, always being aware of large waves that may be coming up behind you. 

If you’re struggling in a longshore/long beach current, however, the best course of action is to head directly for the beach, which will be perpendicular to that current. Don’t worry too much about exiting the water exactly where you started—just get out where you can. Chase noted that while many people have heard what to do in a rip current, few are aware of the strength of longshore currents that can move you hundreds of yards or more along a beach.

Even if you’re a strong swimmer in the pool, don’t expect to feel equally strong and fast in the ocean, even on a calm day. “Most swimmers are going to have trouble navigating these dynamic conditions and feeling as comfortable in the surf as they do at their local swimming pool,” Chase told us. So the key thing to remember in a dangerous situation is: relax. Stay calm and use your energy tactically. “Give people time to come and help you, for the EMS system to be activated, for a lifeguard to come and find you.” If you see someone in trouble, take 10 seconds to alert a lifeguard or 911 and find productive ways to help. Watch the NOAA Wave Safe “Take 10” video.

No matter what beach you go to, the philosophy is, respect the ocean. “Even if you’ve been visiting the same beach for 10 years and you know that break and you’re comfortable sending your kids out there, one nor’easter or one storm can dramatically change that,” said Chase. “So it’s not just [that] each beach is different, which it very much is, but that beach can also change from hour to hour and definitely from year to year.”

Learn More

Share NOAA’s Wave Safe videos to help your friends and family, or the public at large, understand beach safety concepts. 

View a news story by Blue IQ session attendee Jeremy Lewan, featuring some of his takeaways from the session.

Watch the Weather Band Webinar. 

Read Bruckner Chase’s Weather Band article for additional tips.

See experimental beach forecasts at Weather.gov/beach. 

More NOAA beach safety resources.

About 51Broadcast/7WWC

The 51st Conference on Broadcast Meteorology and Seventh Conference on Weather Warnings and Communication took place in Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, on 12-14 June, 2024, hosted by the American Meteorological Society (AMS). The 51st Conference on Broadcast Meteorology is organized by the AMS Board on Broadcast Meteorology and invites broadcast meteorologists from across the United States to network and share professional knowledge. The Seventh Conference on Weather Warnings and Communication features cutting-edge research on weather communication strategies, challenges, and impacts, and is organized by the AMS Board on Societal Impacts. 

Addressing Extreme Heat and Climate Change Adaptation

Jessica Stewart at the AMS 2024 Science Policy Colloquium

Reflections on the 2024 AMS Science Policy Colloquium

By Jessica Stewart, MHA, MPH, student DrPH, The George Washington University

Note: This is a guest blog post; it represents the views of the author alone and not the American Meteorological Society or the AMS Policy Program. The Science Policy Colloquium is non-partisan and non-prescriptive, and promotes understanding of the policy process, not any particular viewpoint(s).

The 2024 AMS Science Policy Colloquium was a deeply enriching experience, offering valuable insights and fostering new connections. As a second-year doctoral student focusing on climate change adaptation and interest in integration of policy and governance, I found the colloquium’s session discussions to be both inspiring and pivotal for my research and professional growth.

Insights into Policymaking

The colloquium provided a detailed exploration of the policy-making process, which I’ll admit I did not fully understand at first. The sessions highlighted the crucial role of effectively communicating scientific findings, showing how this communication can significantly shape policies affecting our world. This realization drove home the impact and importance of my own dissertation research. Engaging with policymakers and federal officials gave me a real-world perspective on the complexities of policymaking and the collaborative efforts needed to enact meaningful changes.
Networking with a diverse group of students, agency professionals, scientists, and industry leaders was invaluable. These interactions offered fresh perspectives on my research interests and opened doors for future collaborations.

Integrating Climate Change Adaptation into Policy

I was able to find a community of other students and agency professionals who were actively engaged in extreme heat research, and we started sharing ideas—a topic that is particularly significant to me as I thought about my home state of California. California has faced increasingly severe heatwaves and droughts, which have serious effects on public health, infrastructure, and ecosystems. These extreme weather events not only strain the healthcare system but also damage critical infrastructure, such as roads, bridges, and water systems. Additionally, they disrupt the balance of natural environments, leading to loss of biodiversity and increased risk of wildfires.

My research interests explore how new technologies, predictive modeling, and resilient infrastructure can be used to adapt to the escalating challenges of climate change. Making sure these technological solutions fit into policy frameworks is key to their success and long-term sustainability. Policies need to be effective and forward-thinking to accommodate emerging technologies and integrate scientific research into practical applications. This alignment ensures that innovations are not only developed but also effectively implemented, providing real-world benefits and enhancing the resilience of communities against the growing threats posed by climate change.

The dynamic discussions on science, technology and its far-reaching impacts were incredibly insightful. This is one of the many products of the colloquium, this vibrant exchange of ideas and solutions, showcasing a united commitment to tackling today’s challenges and preparing for a more resilient future.

Moving Forward

The AMS Science Policy Colloquium has profoundly deepened my understanding of the intersection between science and policy. The insights and connections I gained will significantly enhance my contributions to the field of science. It was an incredibly enriching experience, providing invaluable insights, professional connections, and strengthened my sense of purpose.

About the AMS Science Policy Colloquium

The AMS Science Policy Colloquium is an intensive and non-partisan introduction to the United States federal policy process for scientists and practitioners. Participants meet with congressional staff, officials from the executive office of the President, and leaders from executive branch agencies. They learn first-hand about the interplay of policy, politics, and procedure through legislative exercises. Alumni of this career-shaping experience have gone on to serve in crucial roles for the nation and the scientific community including the highest levels of leadership in the National Weather Service, the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP), the National Science Foundation, and the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP), and AMS itself.

The Summer Community Meeting: Why is this year’s meeting so important?

People talking at SCM

Join us August 5–6 in Washington, D.C., as we work to ensure a robust Weather, Water, and Climate Enterprise

By Keith L. Seitter, AMS Senior Policy Fellow and Executive Director Emeritus

The AMS Summer Community Meeting (SCM) is a vital gathering for our community, and one that has played a significant role in shaping the success of the weather, water, and climate enterprise over the past two decades. If you’ve never been to one, it might not be clear why I say that, so as someone who’s attended these meetings from the start, let me explain why they have been so important — and why I am so excited about this year’s SCM.

The SCM was one component of the AMS response to recommendations in the 2003 National Research Council “Fair Weather” report. Many of us view this report as a turning point for the entire community. It acknowledged the serious tensions that existed at the time between the private and government sectors and offered concrete steps that could reduce those tensions and lead to more effective service to the nation. From the standpoint of AMS and its role in supporting the community, the following recommendation was particularly important:

“Recommendation 3. The NWS and relevant academic, state, and private organizations should seek a neutral host, such as the American Meteorological Society, to provide a periodic dedicated venue for the weather enterprise as a whole to discuss issues related to the public-private partnership.”

“Executive Summary.” National Research Council. 2003. Fair Weather: Effective Partnership in Weather and Climate Services. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/10610.

The full AMS response included establishment, in 2004, of the Commission on the Weather and Climate Enterprise, which later had its scope expanded as the Commission on the Weather, Water, and Climate Enterprise (CWWCE). For the past two decades, as one of several important programs within CWWCE, the SCM has played a pivotal role in improving the collaboration in the weather enterprise and helped greatly reduce tensions and conflict among key players in the community.

We are now two decades past the “Fair Weather” report, and the weather enterprise is very different from those earlier times, with many more players, data from commercial weather satellites, artificial intelligence and machine learning technologies, and many other innovations that are reshaping weather-related fields. These innovations bring the potential for our community to offer even greater service to the nation and the world — if the entire enterprise can work effectively together. So AMS, in 2023, launched a significant study to look at the weather enterprise 20 years after “Fair Weather.” Over 100 volunteers from throughout the enterprise have been participating in the study during this year, and they have identified a number of issues as preliminary findings in that effort.

The 2024 Summer Community Meeting will present some of those key findings as a launching point for extended discussions on foundational issues facing the weather enterprise, now and in the coming decades. That means that this year’s SCM brings the meeting back to its roots two decades ago, and promises to be one of the most influential in recent memory. Among the issues to be discussed are:

  • How can academic programs evolve to create the workforce needed for the Enterprise of today and the future?
  • How can the private, academic, government, and NGO sectors work together to produce the best possible numerical weather prediction platforms?
  • How is the explosion of AI impacting predictions and services?
  • What is the best balance between government observations and commercial data buys?
  • How is the research enterprise changing in the face of new technologies?
  • How do we ensure open science and open data in an enterprise where more observations are under the control of the private sector?
  • How do we ensure our warnings, decision support, and other services are taking best advantage of the strengths of each sector of the community?

The SCM has always provided a unique opportunity for professionals from academia, industry, government, and NGOs to come together to discuss broader strategic priorities, identify challenges to be addressed and opportunities to collaborate, and share points of view on pressing topics. At this year’s SCM, attendees will also contribute to the conclusions and recommendations presented in an important AMS study that could help shape the future of the weather enterprise. I encourage you to consider attending this year’s SCM, regardless of your role in the enterprise, so that you can be part of building our community’s future.

As with all AMS meetings, the SCM will be conducted as a hybrid meeting, so even those who cannot make the trip to Washington, D.C., in person can still take part virtually. Find out more and learn how to register.

Bumpy Flight into Hurricane Ian Births a New Metric for Turbulence

Airplane over hurricane

A research spotlight from the 36th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

NOAA’s WP-3D Orion “Hurricane Hunter” aircraft are no strangers to turbulence. Reconnaissance flights through hurricanes are by definition a tad bumpy.

A viral video taken aboard the Hurricane Hunter “Kermit” (NOAA42) as it flew through Hurricane Ian on 28 September, 2022, however, shows that even its experienced crew were shaken.

In the video, equipment is shown having fallen to the floor of the aircraft (“There goes the sondes!”), and after a camera-shaking bump, the crew can be heard reassuring each other, “We’re alright.”

Part of video of Hurricane Hunter flight into Hurricane Ian, September 28, 2022. Video courtesy of Nick Underwood.

“I’ve been flying hurricanes with NOAA for the last six years, and that was the worst flight that I’ve been on so far,” NOAA Programs and Integration Engineer Nick Underwood (who filmed the video) told MSNBC the next day. “We were coming through the western side of Hurricane Ian, it was intensifying up to its peak Category 4 strength, and we really got bounced around.”

As it turns out, the flight may have been the most turbulent ever on a Hurricane Hunter aircraft, at least in the past 20 years. In a study presented by Joshua Wadler of Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University at the 36th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, researchers came up with new metrics to better quantify turbulence as experienced by an aircraft’s occupants—and ranked the top ten flights in Hurricane Hunter history.

“It was probably about ten minutes of really extreme turbulence,” said Wadler in his presentation during the “Innovative Observing Technologies to Advance Tropical Cyclone Operations and Research VI” session. As part of the flight crew, Wadler was on the team in charge of the Altius-600 small uncrewed aircraft system’s first-ever deployment into a hurricane.

Left and right: Josh Wadler and colleagues aboard the WP-3D Hurricane Hunter flight into Hurricane Ian, September 28, 2022. Photos courtesy of Jake Barlow. Center: Altius sUAS in front of WP-3D aircraft. Photo: Joe Cione.

“We were talking on the mission and we [thought], well, is this the bumpiest flight ever?” Wadler said. A few of the crew who had been flying such missions for decades seemed to think so. “We were like, okay, let’s try to figure it out.”

A bumpiness equation

Aside from corroborating hurricane researchers’ harrowing tales, understanding turbulence is becoming increasingly important given its predicted increase due to climate change, and with recent incidents including the death of a passenger during an exceptionally turbulent Singapore Airlines flight. Metrics for turbulence already exist, but most of those only represent vertical motion and focus on atmospheric properties rather than what happens to occupants. “We wanted … to have a 3-D turbulence metric, and one that describes the human experience,” said Wadler. 

When an aircraft rapidly accelerates  vertically or horizontally, everyone feels the dizzying rise or stomach-clenching drop. But if the aircraft rotates around its center of gravity in any direction, that acceleration will have different effects depending on where someone is seated–for example, when the aircraft tilts (or pitches) upward the people in the front of the aircraft will feel an upward acceleration while the people in the back will feel a downward acceleration. If the plane is also accelerating upwards, such as during takeoff, those in the front will experience a “double whammy” of acceleration. As Wadler noted, “Every seat on the plane experiences different rotational motions depending on where you are.”

Wadler and colleagues’ new “bumpiness” metric accounts for those differences. 

The research team combined flight-level data from all P-3 flights since 2004 (when high-enough-quality data became available). They calculated the acceleration forces acting on each seat in the plane relative to the plane’s center of gravity.

They defined the flight’s “bumpiness” by combining acceleration with jerk (the rate of change in acceleration over time), accounting for both in all three dimensions. This equation can be applied to any aircraft where the center of gravity and relative positions of the seats are known, and for which high-quality flight-level data are available. 

Bumpiness equation
Wadler and colleagues’ equation for defining “bumpiness” (B) in meters per second squared (m/s2).
Pilot's bed on floor

Their equation accounts equally for bumpiness in all directions, although it can be thrown off by sharp turns. Missions in which the plane turned sharply on purpose (for example, to calibrate instruments) were excluded from the team’s calculations.

Because the end result, the B or bumpiness value, values all dimensions of movement equally, it doesn’t always sync with what people expect. Some Twitter commenters belittled the video from the flight, possibly because it shows few large up-and-down bumps. The main types of motion experienced by the mission’s crew, however, were front-to-back and side-to-side.

<< The off-duty pilot’s bed was thrown from its bunk onto the floor during flight 20220928H1 into Hurricane Ian, due to lateral motion of the aircraft. Photo courtesy of Jake Barlow.

The bumpiest hurricane flights

The researchers calculated the top 10 bumpiest flights for each of the seats on the plane, based on the most turbulent part of each mission. 

WP-3D Orion seat map
Seat map of WP-3D Orion Hurricane Hunter aircraft. Image: Josh Wadler.

For the person in seat 1 (the “pilot flying,” in the front left seat on the plane), the Hurricane Ian flight was in fact the bumpiest by far—with a B value of 6.04 m/s2, 34% bumpier than any other flight for which good data were available. The second highest B value was experienced during Hurricane Irma in 2017 (B value: 4.5 m/s2), the third by a flight into Hurricane Sam in 2021 (B value: 4.39 m/s2). Subjective rankings from surveyed flight crews came up with a wide range of answers about their bumpiest flights, but were roughly in the same ballpark as those calculated by B value.

RankStorm NameMission IDMaximum Bumpiness Value (m/s2)
1IAN20220928H16.04
2IRMA20170908H24.50
3SAM20210929H24.39
4LANE(EP)20180822H14.28
5FELIX20070902H14.27
6DORIAN20190830H24.08
7PATRICIA(EP)20151023I14.05
8RAFAEL20121015H14.02
9GONZALO20141017I13.90
10DORIAN20190904H13.70
Rankings of B values for Hurricane Hunter flights since 2004, for the pilot in seat 1.

On the Hurricane Ian mission, the greatest B value (6.13 m/s2) was experienced by the second pilot, sitting in seat 2. Wadler was in seat 10. “I was very fearful during this mission,” he noted during his presentation. But, “lo and behold, my seat had the lowest [bumpiness] value by far.” The pilot in seat 1 experienced 37% worse turbulence than Wadler’s seat in the middle of the plane (6.04 m/s2 vs. 4.4 m/s2).

Seatmax Bumpiness (m/s2)
16.04
26.13
36.02
45.87
55.52
65.68
75.03
85.08
94.79
104.4
114.46
124.45
134.54
144.52
154.45
164.53
174.51
184.59
194.55
Rankings of B values for all seats on the Hurricane Hunter flight 20220928H1.

For seat 1, the Ian flight (Flight 20220928H1) ranked above all other flights for back-front and lateral motion. Yet in terms of up-down motion, a mission during Hurricane Lane ranked far higher, with a vertical B value of 17.1; Ian’s highest vertical B value was 8.43, ranking it seventh in terms of vertical motion. When all metrics are combined, however, the Ian flight came out on top. “It’s normal to have vertical bumps with eyewall updrafts and downdrafts,” Wadler noted in a later conversation, “but the lateral motions are rare. … The dropsondes went all over the cabin.”

Currently the bumpiness rankings only count the highest B value experienced during a flight. In future work, the research team aims to develop an equation that can account for cumulative bumpiness over time—a “queasiness index.” We’re well on the way to finding out what flights would make even the most iron-stomached hurricane hunter, in Wadler’s words, “very happy to be on the ground.”

Want to know more about what it’s like to fly a research mission into a hurricane? Take a virtual tour of a Hurricane Hunter aircraft “Miss Piggy.”

Header photo: View from NOAA WP-3D Hurricane Hunter aircraft “Kermit” during flight 20220928H1 into Hurricane Ian. Photo courtesy of Joshua Wadler.

About 36Hurricanes

The 36th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology brought together hundreds of hurricane researchers, modeling experts, forecasters, emergency managers, communicators, and more May 6-10, 2024, in Long Beach, California to discuss the latest in tropical cyclones and other tropical weather phenomena. It was hosted by the AMS Committee on Tropical Meteorology and Tropical Cyclones.

You can view the online program here. All conference presentations will become available to the public starting in August 2024.