Jeff

Not Sure What to Say? Talk about Uncertainty.

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Since communication is the topic of the week, the new AMS draft statement on “Communicating Science” is never far from our minds during this meeting. The statement is available for comment until 2 February, which means discussions here could help shape that document.
Not surprisingly the statement addresses how AMS membership should communicate not only the “nature and practice of science” but also its results to a wide variety of nonscientific audiences.
One of the most challenging aspects of that communication is summed up baldly in the statement:

Uncertainty is not equivalent to not knowing.

Therein lies a major communication challenge, because the public expect scientists to “know” things by making confident predictions, like where the planet moves and which way things fall.
Yet uncertainty is built into the scientific process just as much as making successful predictions. Uncertainty fuels new experiments and hypotheses. It can be expressed mathematically. And it actually is increasingly a basis for sophisticated, probabilistic decision making tools. Says the draft statement:

In … studies of complex phenomena such as weather and climate, [uncertainty] may contribute to knowing more.

But:

This idea has not been adequately communicated to the public.

Worse yet, as practitioners of prediction, scientists look bad when they admit uncertainty:

In a world of sound bites and rapid-fire news coverage, scientists struggle with how to convey to the public the additional information contained in statements of uncertainty and probability without seeming less credible than other voices conveying the appearance of certainty.

Since uncertainty is at the soul of the scientific process as well as its products, communicating uncertainty is at the very heart of this week’s meetings. A Town Hall meeting on “The Role of the Forecaster in Probabilistic Decision Making” on Monday (24 January, 12:15 p.m., WSCC 606) continues the community follow-up to the 2006 National Research Council report, “Completing the Forecast: Characterizing and Communicating Uncertainty.” In this case, forecasters face a double-whammy. Not only is uncertainty difficult and unwelcome, but, according to the AMS statement draft,

there exists in the public mindset distrust in the ability of models to provide useful information.

On Thursday (27 January, 11 a.m.-12:15 a.m., WSCC 611) we’ll get some concrete examples of overcoming these problems in a session on “Communicating Uncertainty,” part of the Second Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy.” Jeanne Schneider of USDA will open with “The Necessity of Communicating Uncertainty—Lessons from the Interface.” And Deborah Smith et al. of Remote Sensing Systems will talk about “Communicating Satellite MW Ocean Product Errors to a Variety of Users” at noon.
Of course many other presentations will touch on this topic one way or another. One thing is sure: uncertainty is a major part of this year’s discussions.

Got Game? Your Planet Hopes You Do

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If you’ve been following Bill Hooke’s blog, Living on the Real World, you know the AMS Policy Program director has been exploring the analogies been contemporary life and various types of games.
Yesterday’s post likened life to a Massively Multiple On-line Role-Playing Game:

On the real world as in the videogame, as time passes, and as gamers surmount one set of challenges after another, the pace quickens and the level of difficulty jumps. On the real world, as we’ve gone from say 1 billion people to 7 billion, each one of which on average may be consuming resources at ten times of her ancestor a century earlier, and as social change had accelerated, the level of difficulty has  hit unprecedented heights.

Saturday at the AMS Student Conference, Hooke challenged attendees to become the “Greatest Generation,” by becoming engaged in a modern world that is increasingly insulated and virtual and to equip themselves to thrive on a real planet with real, escalating problems.
In both gaming and life, “it’s easier to lose than to win,” Hooke said, but in life there are “no do-overs, no pause button.” So keep in mind that the videos below may be mere electronic do-overs, with pause buttons, of the complete luncheon talk, but this indeed happened in the real world today in Seattle, before 400 people, with some real answers and real hope for a future informed by science and good policy.

Weather Quest Sleuths: Start Your Smartphones!

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Students participating in the 2011 Weather Quest:  Use your smart phone to read the qr code on the right to get Clue #5:
If you have a smart phone, but not a qr code reader, you can download one from http://www.mobile-barcodes.com/qr-code-software/ .
If you don’t have a smart phone, you can go to this URL to access the clue: http://library.ssec.wisc.edu/tempfiles/clue5.htm
Good luck!
The Weather Quest Team

And Speaking of Fun…

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by Steve Ackerman, Annual Meeting Co-Chair
Raj concluded a posting about communications themes at the Annual Meeting by saying, “Have fun.” That ought to be easy. It is always a joy to meet old friends at these meetings, and make new ones. In addition to the Wednesday banquet, the lunches, the art show, and WeatherFest, there is lots of fun in store at various sessions throughout the meeting. Everyone has their favorite lightning story, and there are a several papers throughout the conference on lightning; including recent modeling advance, future satellite observations, lightning climatologies and communicating safety procedures to the public. I’m looking forward to the session on Eyjafjallajökull Volcanic Eruption of 2010, to hear about what was learned about the eruption and its impact. There are several papers that deal with artificial intelligence – which makes me wonder how listening is incorporated into A.I. There are many interesting papers presented throughout the meeting and the AMS calendar scheduler is a good way to keep track of papers you want to hear. There is a lot of ‘pink’ in my schedule (for those who haven’t used it, a pink cell denotes a conflict between one or more events.) I also enjoy the poster sessions — that is a good time to have some dialogue about research that interests me.
Oh, and once we all learn how to communicate better, take some time to comment on the AMS draft statement on “communicating science.”

Making Yourself Known…from Someone Who Knows

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Al Blackadar, AMS Honorary Member and Past President and veteran of countless AMS meetings, shared this story to us this week. It proves the power of serendipity as well as the value of getting to know people in your field–precisely the point of Annual Meeting week and in particular events like the new Reception for Young Professionals this coming Sunday:

I happened to be in Boston one morning in 1948 or thereabout with a late-afternoon train reservation to return to New York. I was then an instructor at NYU working for a degree and hoping to find a start on my career. On an idle thought I wandered over to 45 Beacon Street to see the ruins that had just been acquired for the future AMS headquarters and unexpectedly met Ken Spengler and Tom Malone, then President of the AMS. I accepted an invitation for a tour and lunch, neither of which had been previously scheduled. Next morning, back at home in New Jersey I was awakened by a surprise phone call from Tom Malone asking me if I would accept an appointment as Editor of the AMS Monographs!
I have often mentioned this experience to my students. There are unlimited ways to make yourself known – more than you will ever expect or ever plan. Make it a habit and I can guarantee success.

The Most Difficult "Way of Knowing": Listening

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by Raj Pandya, Annual Meeting Co-Chair
The theme of this year’s annual meeting is communication, and I think one of the hardest parts of communication is listening. I find it embarrassingly easy to slip into broadcast mode, and imagine that simply because I want to say it, others will be interested.  My 8-year old daughter can be brutal about this:  “Daddy, this is boring, can we talk about horses, please.”  (I will say, though, I can sneak in a little thunderstorm talk if we frame it around storms’ impact on horse happiness).
So, I am especially looking forward to this annual meeting as a chance to listen, especially to communities we haven’t interacted with before or in places we haven’t gone. There are lots of opportunities in this meeting. The presidential forum opens the meeting with some suggestions about how to address what audiences may be interested in and how to present information in a way that connects. There is a themed joint session on Thursday called “Ways of Knowing” that will explore things from an indigenous perspective. Sunday night, before the meeting kicks off, students will be presenting their research – a great chance to listen to the next generation. On Tuesday, a panel will tackle the challenge of communicating – and listening –across our various disciplines and another set of talks will focus on communication and diversity. Finally, there are sessions that explore communication from a user perspective – including public health, energy, and people interested in tropical cyclones.
The second hardest part about communicating is adapting. I find myself clinging to my preferred mode of communication, even when the audience and circumstance change.  It doesn’t always work – in the words of Hawkeye Pierce, “He doesn’t understand loud English, either, Frank”.  Even only in English, there are new social media and devices that are rapidly changing the way we communicate.
There are a number of talks at the Annual that tackle this. There are sessions on mobile devices and e-books and a more general session to explore technology that enables communication. There are special sessions demonstrating technology in education and a special session on Thursday looks at how data publishing may change the way we communicate science.
Yogi Berra is reported to have said a whole lot of things, including “You can observe a lot just by watching.”  In the spirit of this year’s Annual Meeting, with the theme of communication, I’d suggest, instead: “You can hear a lot by just listening.”
Have fun.

New and Just for You: The Young Professionals Reception

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The previous post from Annual Meeting Co-Chairs Steve Ackerman and Rajul Pandya talked about some of the new projects and sessions we’re trying out for the first time at the upcoming Annual Meeting. Here’s another that early-career AMS members will find particularly useful and fun: the first ever AMS reception for young professionals sponsored by SAIC on Sunday, 23 January, from 9-11pm in Grand Ballroom D of the Sheraton Hotel (headquarters hotel for the AMS Annual Meeting). You will have the opportunity to meet and network with others who are beginning their careers in the public, private and academic sectors. In addition, there will be opportunities to provide comments and suggestions to the AMS membership committee for how we can better serve our young professional membership.
If you consider yourself an AMS young professional (o.k., all scientists are young forever!) or if you’re trying to find your niche within the AMS community, looking for a job, need career advice; this is the place for you.  Or, perhaps you are looking to connect with other AMS young professionals? This is the best opportunity ever at an AMS conference to do just that.
To join our facebook event, click here or search for “AMS Young Professionals Reception” in the events section. For more Information, email Gina Eosco, [email protected], or Ken Carey, [email protected].

Looking Forward to Seattle

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by Steve Ackerman and Rajul Pandya, Co-Chairs, 91st AMS Annual Meeting
Happy New Year! Following the communication theme of the 2011 AMS Annual Meeting in Seattle Washington, we thought it appropriate to remind you of some activities that will occur during our annual meeting. There will be some new events this year to accompany the exciting events we have come to appreciate during this meeting – such as Weatherfest and the awards dinner.
This meeting will be the “pilot” effort of the Beacons program. AMS Beacons are folks that will be stationed throughout the conference area to greet and assist you as you participate in this meeting. While there is a special opportunity to meet Beacons at the New Attendee Briefing on Sunday,  they will be available throughout the week as well.
For the first time, our annual meeting includes a visual art exhibition hosted by the conference center.  The exhibit, Forecast: Communicating Weather and Climate, remains in the conference center through April and is open to the public. The purpose of the exhibit is to engage scientists, artists, and others in cross-disciplinary dialogue on ways to communicate weather and climate issues to the general public. So, roam the halls of the conference center to view and discuss the artworks.
There will be a couple of student activities as well.  With help from our vendors, students will make and share measurements of our meeting environment in an activity called, appropriately, “Measuring the Environment”.  The Student conference on Saturday will include a game quest, including puzzles to solve and things to find, and the chance to win fantastic prizes.
Finally, the Sunday evening before the conference features two grassroots events: “The Color of Weather”, a gathering celebrating the increasing ethnic and racial diversity of our society, and the “Coriolis” reception for Gay, Lesbian, Bisexual, Transgender and Friends. Both events take place 7:00–9:00 p.m. at the Sheraton Seattle Hotel (1400 Sixth Avenue) “The Color of Weather” in the Willow Room and “Coriolis” in Diamond Rooms A and B.
Look for further updates on posts on this blog, AMS Facebook and Twitter (#91stAMS) feeds.

Snow for Alabama: Can the Models Do the Talking?

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Alabama hasn’t had a lot of luck with White Christmases. In Birmingham, for instance, it’s only dusted snow once, and that wasn’t an actual measurable accumulation.
It’s no wonder then that the prospect of snow tomorrow has sent chills of excitement down the spines of Alabamans who have had their eyes glued to the computer models this week.
On his AlabamaWx blog, ABC 33/40 broadcast meteorologist James Spann and Tim Coleman have been trying to temper excessive expectations for days now, even while trying to patiently explain the promising but multifarious model output. On Wednesday, for instance:

There is very little skill in forecasting winter storm events in Alabama until you get with about 48 hours of the event. Nobody knows the exact snow placement and amount this early. Even the know-it-alls don’t know, even though they will never let you bebutlieve it (those of us that have been doing this a long time professionally have had enough doses of humility over the years to be firmly out of the know-it-all camp). We can begin talking accumulation placement tomorrow when that 48 hour window opens up.

and:

The NAM and the GFS, the two primary American models, show very limited moisture, and not much more than a dusting of snow for the I-20 corridor. The deepest moisture will be over the southern half of the state, where initially the precipitation will fall in the form of rain.

The ECMWF and the GEM, the European and Canadian models, are a little more bullish on moisture for North Alabama, but it is still limited. Both of these models suggest enough snow to get 1/2 to 1 inch on the ground. Which, if happens, would be historic for Birmingham. Up north, everybody would completely laugh at the fuss this is creating.

All this talk about what the computers say apparently gets a violently different reaction from folks depending on the stakes. Therein lies a lesson in communicating with science as we approach a meeting devoted to the topic. Wrote one commenter yesterday on AlabamaWx:

Yeah I’m.pretty upset that one.minute the models are right on for a winter storm then the next it flakes out. It literally crushes a lot of peoples wants and all but atleast we did have a chance a day ago! Now its all a good memory.

Just the day before, Spann wrote:

I am amazed at the angry tone of e-mails this evening… some are simply livid that I am not predicting a big Christmas day snow storm that would be historic for Alabama. I will probably never understand why winter weather brings out such passion and emotion. Seems to be more intense every year. Never was like this in the “old days”… one guy called me an “idiot of historic proportion” because “his forecast” was for 6 inches of snow for Birmingham. Wow.

Apparently, despite the cool dispassion of mathematics and computers, it is actually easier for people to rant at computers churning out uncertainty than

Read more

Good Things in Small Packages

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Don’t let the size of those boxes under the Christmas tree fool you. Good things sometimes come in little packages, and here’s a video from the University of Michigan to prove it.

RAX pre-launch
Tabletop space weather satellite before its launch.

U of M students designed and built a satellite called RAX, or Radio Aurora Explorer, to fit into the standardized 10 cm x 10 cm x 10 cm frames of the CubeSat initiative, which puts low-cost instruments into orbit. Funded by NSF, RAX is a joint venture between the university and SRI International.
Basically the idea is to study plasma instabilities in the ionosphere. These clouds of magnetic disturbance can disrupt communications between Earth and spacecraft. RAX receives and processes signals from incoherent radar based in Alaska that are scattered by these plasma clouds. This makes RAX the NSF’s first space weather satellite. Launched one month ago today, the mission has already dealt with low-power problems with the batteries, but has also proved successful in receiving signals from the radar in Alaska.
The mission is described in this video made before the launch:

You can keep track of RAX on the mission blog, and hear Hasan Bahcivan of SRI present the latest on the mission at the AMS Annual Meeting in Seattle (Tuesday 25 January, 4:45 pm, 4C-3). Also, Richard Behnke of NSF will discuss cubesat and other aspects of the NSF space weather plans (Monday 24 January, 11:45 am, 4C-3).